ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Based on the shear map he’s been under 40kts of shear for a while and it’s not making much of a difference so far.

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

[Keldeo1997]

This was dropped well to the west before NOAA went in. No dry air yet

[kevin]

I think at this point, this is one of the least atheistically pleasing cat 5 I've ever seen.

https://i.imgur.com/TFUb70v.png

I'm all for deterioration of Milton from now on. 12 hours ago it was one of the most perfect looking cat 5's I've seen.

[GCANE]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Gcane you mentioned the possibility of a quake around the yucatan due to the ionospherics..is this the one i wonder?

https://imgur.com/L1H9Gb3

I don't see it on the USGS map.
Was that yesterday or today?

[eastcoastFL]

Based on the shear map he’s been under 40kts of shear for a while and it’s not making much of a difference so far.

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

Recon just recorded 913mb I was hoping to see something much higher by now, I am watching it on radar and it looks solid still for now maybe a little trouble on the western side. But he cruised through fairly high shear all night without issue.

[GCANE]

Interesting

AF300's latest VDM didn't mention a double eyewall.

Let's see what Miss Piggy has to say

[GCANE]

Eye is definitely deteriorating.

[chris_fit]

Pinhole Eye seems to FINALLY be weakening. Notable drop in reds and oranges.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting

AF300's latest VDM didn't mention a double eyewall.

Let's see what Miss Piggy has to say

G, how’s our tornado outlook for the southern half of Florida?

[Nimbus]

Last VDM has 913mb, Dvorak weakening flag is on, and the eye has begun to cool/cloud over on IR. C'mon dry air, hop in, the water's nice!

I just woke up to the 913 mb recon fix and some of the models insisting Milton will maintain strength into Tampa bay.
Real time looks like shear has started eroding the NW quadrant and dry air may have a chance to reach the core this morning which would be earlier than forecast.

We have the radar with the official forecast track and we know the GFS is predicting some strange track behavior before landfall.
My guess would be another EWRC followed by a reformation further east with the usual shear fallout.

NHC is watching this and will have a better explanation at 11AM.

[pmang6]

Dvorak rapid dissipation flag now on, for whatever that's worth.

What does that mean?

Here's the ADT user guide: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/adt/g ... _Guide.pdf

Pages 42-44 have what you're looking for. Apparently its more of an EPAC thing, but there is mention of it being periodically relevant in other basins.

[eastcoastFL]

It does look like the windfield is expanding. Recon is finding hurricane force winds further east than I’ve seen in previous passes.

[eastcoastFL]

Dvorak rapid dissipation flag now on, for whatever that's worth.

What does that mean?

Here's the ADT user guide: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/adt/g ... _Guide.pdf

Pages 42-44 have what you're looking for. Apparently its more of an EPAC thing, but there is mention of it being periodically relevant in other basins.

Thank you!

[eastcoastFL]

65mm/hr rain rate in NE quad

[GCANE]

Interesting

AF300's latest VDM didn't mention a double eyewall.

Let's see what Miss Piggy has to say

G, how’s our tornado outlook for the southern half of Florida?

Southern half not bad. Maybe a sporadic EF1.
Mid FL will be the worse and along the coast when feeder bands rotate in.

[xironman]

Based on the shear map he’s been under 40kts of shear for a while and it’s not making much of a difference so far.

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

Probably more the EWRC than shear right now.

[Blown Away]

Milton was E of the 10pm track, NHC resets at 5am and E again...

[GCANE]

4500 CAPE being ingested into the core now.

[xironman]

Roughly ten miles east of the path

[ColdMiser123]

Based on the latest NOAA pass, Milton is still a 140 kt Cat 5, with 913 mb central pressure.

One of the most significant changes from yesterday are how much the hurricane force flight level winds have expanded on the east side of the storm, thanks to the shear.