ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Mike33534]

I think where NHC says the center is, is different than where the eye that we see trending east is. i mean it makes no sense otherwise, they know it changes each time they update and they haven't bothered to clarify it yet... like they did with helene, they had to tweet about it in fact.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products ... 4_sat2.png

[GCANE]

This is confusing as hell.
Miss Piggy's latest eyedrop shows 850mb being saturated.

[alan1961]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Gcane you mentioned the possibility of a quake around the yucatan due to the ionospherics..is this the one i wonder?

https://imgur.com/L1H9Gb3

I don't see it on the USGS map.
Was that yesterday or today?

Its not on the USGS site its on the european site EMSC, it was early this morning european time, around 7pm to 8pm for you.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake_information/

[chaser1]

Based on the shear map he’s been under 40kts of shear for a while and it’s not making much of a difference so far.

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

Absolutely. I think the reflection in surface pressure rises will be dramatic and commence sooner than I had expected. In fact, given the satellite presentation, I am beginning to wonder if extratropical transition might well begin a good deal earlier and prior to landfall, than forecasted while traversing the peninsula?

[GCANE]

Also, still have continuous lightning in core.
He just past the hottest part of the Loop Current and is now pulling away from it.

Currently 24.7N 85.0W

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/alt ... ents%20are

[GCANE]

Gcane you mentioned the possibility of a quake around the yucatan due to the ionospherics..is this the one i wonder?

https://imgur.com/L1H9Gb3

I don't see it on the USGS map.
Was that yesterday or today?

Its not on the USGS site its on the european site EMSC, it was early this morning european time, around 7pm to 8pm for you.
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake_information/

Much thanks.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy didn't report a double eyewall as well.
Just an 8nm wide eye

[GCANE]

Significant increase in the northern eyewall's helicity.
Significant Tornado Potential (STP) at 5.

[NDG]

Despite deterioration on satellite presentation 155 knot flight level winds from NOAA pass still supports a Cat 5, dropsonde clearly missed the center.

755
URNT12 KWBC 091102
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 09/10:23:37Z
B. 24.70 deg N 085.03 deg W
C. NA
D. 917 mb
E. 175 deg 41 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C8
H. NA
I. NA
J. 346 deg 113 kt
K. 260 deg 6 nm 10:22:12Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 176 deg 155 kt
O. 090 deg 9 nm 10:25:50Z
P. 19 C / 2456 m
Q. 25 C / 2403 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 1245 / NA
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA3 1914A MILTON OB 05
MAX FL WIND 155 KT 090 / 9 NM 10:25:50Z

[NDG]

Miss Piggy didn't report a double eyewall as well.
Just an 8nm wide eye

But their wind reports show two double wind maxes.

[Nimbus]

Based on the shear map he’s been under 40kts of shear for a while and it’s not making much of a difference so far.

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

Absolutely. I think the reflection in surface pressure rises will be dramatic and commence sooner than I had expected. In fact, given the satellite presentation, I am beginning to wonder if extratropical transition might well begin a good deal earlier and prior to landfall, than forecasted while traversing the peninsula?

Perfect storms like Milton are more vulnerable to shear during EWRC, in fact the core winds can actually collide if the shear was strong enough but that is a miracle scenario that practically never happens.

[GCANE]

A couple things to note about the shear.

1) Milton's track is running parallel with the shear vector.
2) Milton's core tops out well above the troposphere, thus convective tops may not be effected much by the UL shear.

[pmang6]

https://imgur.com/a/QN4xyWr

Definitely some wonky stuff going on there in the last few frames, doesn't look like a classic EWRC to me, but I'm not experienced enough to know one way or another.

Also, any help on getting imgur images to display? putting the link between the imgur tags does not seem to work for me.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy didn't report a double eyewall as well.
Just an 8nm wide eye

But their wind reports show two double wind maxes.

Agreed, I do see a slight double wind maximum.
Thanks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

[caneman]

Miss Piggy didn't report a double eyewall as well.
Just an 8nm wide eye

But their wind reports show two double wind maxes.

Agreed, I do see a slight double wind maximum.
Thanks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

Does this mean eyewall replacement and not shear causing some deterioration?

[USTropics]

https://imgur.com/a/QN4xyWr

Definitely some wonky stuff going on there in the last few frames, doesn't look like a classic EWRC to me, but I'm not experienced enough to know one way or another.

Also, any help on getting imgur images to display? putting the link between the imgur tags does not seem to work for me.

That's because the format on imgur is in mp4 (movie format), and the imgur tag on storm2k expects a gif, png, or jpg. I converted it from an mp4 to an animated gif:

[chaser1]

This is confusing as hell.
Miss Piggy's latest eyedrop shows 850mb being saturated.

Would that be akin to a tornado rapidly filling resulting in immediate dissipation??

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good morning,

Milton did not weaken as much as hoped overnight. Shear and a potential EWRC are definitely beginning to hit it, but there's simply a limit to how much those can contribute to bring down a Category 5. Even if it weakens to 125mph, like Katrina before it, the surge will be nearly equivalent.

[pmang6]

https://imgur.com/a/QN4xyWr

Definitely some wonky stuff going on there in the last few frames, doesn't look like a classic EWRC to me, but I'm not experienced enough to know one way or another.

Also, any help on getting imgur images to display? putting the link between the imgur tags does not seem to work for me.

That's because the format on imgur is in mp4 (movie format), and the imgur tag on storm2k expects a gif, png, or jpg. I converted it from an mp4 to an animated gif:

https://i.imgur.com/I4Rj9Bh.gif

Got it, thanks. I uploaded as a gif, will do some googling and figure out how to get it to stay as a gif for next time. Thanks!

[eastcoastFL]

Storms are really starting to fill in to the east an north east