ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Is it too early to say that this could be ‘07 Dean’s younger sister?

More like Emily 2005’s little sister. The 12z model consensus track seems like a repeat of that.

[zzzh]

I was just thinking of the last hurricane Beryl in 2018 which formed in the MDR about a week later than this one and was far less notable. If the MDR is capable of spawning a cat 3 at the end of June or beginning of July well before it normally comes into season, what will it be capable of in late August/September?

Maybe something crazier than 1933 . And if Beryl does become a MH, how much will TSR take that into account?

[Hurricane2022]

Sunset over the first hurricane of this season.

[KWT]

I was just thinking of the last hurricane Beryl in 2018 which formed in the MDR about a week later than this one and was far less notable. If the MDR is capable of spawning a cat 3 at the end of June or beginning of July well before it normally comes into season, what will it be capable of in late August/September?

In some ways it isn't that surprising given the Atlantic is basically at August levels on terms of SSTs, there isn't an ounce of marginality out there like there sometimes can be in the early season.

This season giving 33/05 vibes for sure at the moment. An early ACE maker as well.

[aspen]

I was just thinking of the last hurricane Beryl in 2018 which formed in the MDR about a week later than this one and was far less notable. If the MDR is capable of spawning a cat 3 at the end of June or beginning of July well before it normally comes into season, what will it be capable of in late August/September?

Last year with similarly insane SSTAs but an El Niño was able to produce a 145 kt Cat 5. If 2023 had a La Niña atmosphere, Lee probably would’ve been a long-duration, upper-echelon Cat 5 like Irma. I won’t be surprised if we get something like that this season with the near-perfect SSTA/ENSO combo and the red flag that is Beryl.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I think that WXMAN will be correct regarding his track into Mexico forecast, I think he will be way off the mark with his low intensity peak forecast. I mean it's already showing signs up blowing up like crazy. But yea it's looking really healthy and good right now. Now of course once it enters the Carib, who knows how much it may weaken due to high shear, but for now it's looking really good!

[Category5Kaiju]

I was just thinking of the last hurricane Beryl in 2018 which formed in the MDR about a week later than this one and was far less notable. If the MDR is capable of spawning a cat 3 at the end of June or beginning of July well before it normally comes into season, what will it be capable of in late August/September?

Maybe something crazier than 1933 . And if Beryl does become a MH, how much will TSR take that into account?

My guess is we're going to see a spamfest of strong Cape Verde hurricanes, with a decent number of them impacting land in some fashion. I'd wager we're probably going to see a season more like 1933/2004/2017 as opposed to 2005/2020.

[Zonacane]

This is a black flag at this point.

[3090]

There is a very fine line, at 7 days out, as far as the direction Beryl will be taking. TIMING is EVERYTHING with the trough speed and the speed at which Beryl will be traveling in days 6-7. There are model indicators the blocking HP ridge, will be sliding east some, allowing a window of weakness to generate to the north of Beryl. IF and a BIG IF, that happens, more of the NW GOM to say the La line, MAY come into play. Beyond 5 days, things (models) are getting a lil bit iffy.

[Keldeo1997]

So experts. Is there a chance if the storm over performs on intensity that it will be able to fight the TUTT/shear later in the western Caribbean?

[weeniepatrol]

This is a black flag at this point.

That's crazy because I'm about ready to wave a white flag. This is going to be a very long and very hellish season, isn't it

So experts. If there a chance if the storm over performs on intensity that it will be able to fight the TUTT/shear later in the western Caribbean?

Absolutely; a larger and/or more developed, robust vortex would be more resilient to the vertical shear.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That was incredibly quick; this wasn't even a named storm until 24 hours ago.

Among many other notes, this is our first hurricane in June since Chris in 2012.

My main analog storm at this point is Emily in 2005.

[Category5Kaiju]

That was incredibly quick; this wasn't even a named storm until 24 hours ago.

Among many other notes, this is our first hurricane in June since Chris in 2012.

My main analog storm at this point is Emily in 2005.

https://i.imgur.com/bp3X6DX.jpeg

I think there are subtle hints that an eye is trying to form. My god.

[Keldeo1997]

Its go time

[ScottNAtlanta]

So, I guess we are all on "eye watch" now that it is a hurricane

[HurricaneBelle]

Sure, we can call it Hurricane Beryl but to be economical we can just call it Berylcane

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sure, we can call it Hurricane Beryl but to be economical we can just call it Berylcane

or Hurl Burl

[Cachondo23]

Sunset over the first hurricane of this season.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmnYA631p
https://imageshack.com/i/pnn1MbUYp

You can see French Guyana and Brazil in that photo, crazy.

[Odeseus]

Eye like structure pretty clear on microwave. Waiting for IR to follow suit.

[ScottNAtlanta]

FYI...Levi's video is out