ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Storms are really starting to fill in to the east an north east

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Those cells look very tornadic.

[eastcoastFL]

He’s not just right of the track line he’s all the way on the right edge of he cone. What I’m afraid of is that he may start that bend to the east sooner than expected.

[johngaltfla]

So tracking the recons fixes from 1:39 AM to 6:37 AM ET, Milton is heading on a 39 deg heading, a little left of true NE direction, if it keeps this heading it will make landfall in Longboat Key/Bradenton.
Based on the distance it has traveled, Milton is now moving at least above 17 mph. If it keeps up this speed, landfall will be near 8-9 PM tonight, much sooner than what global models show and much closer to the latest 06z hurricane models.

https://i.imgur.com/FNzZmLu.gif

I'm still leaning towards the COAMPS and ICON solutions and your statement would pretty much confirm that.

[eastcoastFL]

Storms are really starting to fill in to the east an north east

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Those cells look very tornadic.

There’s a lot of storms associated with Milton that appear to have the potential for tornadoes

[GCANE]

A X1.8 flare occurred earlier today.
Fast moving protons will hit earth today.
Ionosphere is already heating above levels from the past few days.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The wobble watching is going to drive some of you folks insane. The NHC has clear confidence in the track, especially if they adjusted it north despite the wobbles going more southerly thus far. They have outpreformed every model thus far.

[chaser1]

<snip>

Was that left side magnification pic legit?? I know that the right side was.

[MGC]

Milton now Cat-4 155mph at 8am......MGC

[eastcoastFL]

Did they miss the center?

[eastcoastFL]

The wobble watching is going to drive some of you folks insane. The NHC has clear confidence in the track, especially if they adjusted it north despite the wobbles going more southerly thus far. They have outpreformed every model thus far.

When did they adjust north?

[USTropics]

The wobble watching is going to drive some of you folks insane. The NHC has clear confidence in the track, especially if they adjusted it north despite the wobbles going more southerly thus far. They have outpreformed every model thus far.

Not throwing any shade at NHC (they are the best at their jobs for a reason), but verification scores show that's not true:

[shawn67]

The wobble watching is going to drive some of you folks insane. The NHC has clear confidence in the track, especially if they adjusted it north despite the wobbles going more southerly thus far. They have outpreformed every model thus far.

When did they adjust north?

5am EDT update

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The wobble watching is going to drive some of you folks insane. The NHC has clear confidence in the track, especially if they adjusted it north despite the wobbles going more southerly thus far. They have outpreformed every model thus far.

When did they adjust north?

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

[Mike33534]

[eastcoastFL]

The wobble watching is going to drive some of you folks insane. The NHC has clear confidence in the track, especially if they adjusted it north despite the wobbles going more southerly thus far. They have outpreformed every model thus far.

When did they adjust north?

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

I couldn’t even notice the difference, it must’ve been a few miles.

[Pipelines182]

Well this is confusing, looks like shear is coming from the north when I thought it was supposed to be coming from the south. The CDO is being pushed south, all the models show it being pushed north. Any explanation? Is it going to switch at some point?

[NDG]

Two hour radar loop.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1843985686875328798

[jlauderdal]

When did they adjust north?

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

I couldn’t even notice the difference, it must’ve been a few miles.

There is alot of noise in tacks and models at this point, I would put all that on the backburner and look at radar, sats and obs. This will give us a better idea of exact landfall than the nhc track or model runs.

[TampaWxLurker]

When did they adjust north?

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

I couldn’t even notice the difference, it must’ve been a few miles.

I woke up earlier this morning to my significant other telling me that there was bad news, that they moved the cone North. So I woke up in a half panic to look on the NHC website and had to squint to even notice it.

[eastcoastFL]

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

I couldn’t even notice the difference, it must’ve been a few miles.

There is alot of noise in tacks and models at this point, I would put all that on the backburner and look at radar, sats and obs. This will give us a better idea of exact landfall than the nhc track or model runs.

That’s where I’m at now, just watching recon and radar. I’ll make a stay or go decision at the 11am update.