ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

I couldn’t even notice the difference, it must’ve been a few miles.

I woke up earlier this morning to my significant other telling me that there was bad news, that they moved the cone North. So I woke up in a half panic to look on the NHC website and had to squint to even notice it.

It must’ve been under 5 miles. I measured 61 miles from the track line to my home last night and now it’s 64.

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like the eye has totally collapsed on sat presentation. Is it an EWRC or is it weakening really quickly? Could it regenerate a new eye? I like what I am seeing I think, because I would love for this monster to be dismantling before landfall.

Radar still shows a clear eye, possibly open to the SW.

[ronjon]

Storms are really starting to fill in to the east an north east

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Those cells look very tornadic.

Milton is merging with that disconnected rain mass to its north and also forming increasing convective bands to its east. This may be the start of Milton getting much larger as it approaches the coast as nhc has mentioned in their discussions.

[kevin]

Milton is probably weakening rapidly now, but he's not giving up. Another strong convective burst is trying to wrap around the northern part of the eye.

[xironman]

Forecast was right through 25N/85W. Dropsondes indicate Milton passed 85W at 24.8N. SO about 0.2 degrees or 15 miles south of the forecast track. Still south, but starting to move closer to the track (also the not-adjusted track before 5am) than a few hours ago.

I get the same result using google earth

[skillz305]

Treasure coast here…hasn’t stopped raining for 5 days now…add hurricane winds….

[Joe Snow]

Just got an evacuation notice for Seminole Co. holy moly.

[Blown Away]

Ugliest Cat 4/5 on satellite ATM... Shear kicking in!

[Mike33534]

The 5am advisory was a slight bump north in landfall point.

I couldn’t even notice the difference, it must’ve been a few miles.

I woke up earlier this morning to my significant other telling me that there was bad news, that they moved the cone North. So I woke up in a half panic to look on the NHC website and had to squint to even notice it.

yeah i made the mistake of reading models thread before actually going and looking at it considerably still east of the forecast my fault. should have went back to bed

[kevin]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xDx7JMv/9b3daa63-39dc-482c-bab5-f09be0fa6fc7.gif [/url]
Ugliest Cat 4/5 on satellite ATM... Shear kicking in!

Milton's ugly, but I think Beryl was way uglier at a cat 4 after Jamaica. It looked like a sloppy C1/C2 at most.

[WeatherBoy2000]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xDx7JMv/9b3daa63-39dc-482c-bab5-f09be0fa6fc7.gif [/url]
Ugliest Cat 4/5 on satellite ATM... Shear kicking in!

Reminds me of Beryl from earlier this year when she really started getting sheared.

[Sanibel]

Milton showing up on NWS Radar...

[ineedsnow]

storms starting to wrap around the center again.

[DESTRUCTION5]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xDx7JMv/9b3daa63-39dc-482c-bab5-f09be0fa6fc7.gif [/url]
Ugliest Cat 4/5 on satellite ATM... Shear kicking in!

He's behaving as advertised in weakening but there is still a wall of water beneath them clouds that is going to create havoc and months of heartache in a matter of hrs. Buckle up left coasters.

[xironman]

Looks to be rebuilding the eyewall after the collapse

[Blown Away]

Continued E adjustment to the position... Stubborn, J/K...

[shawn67]

Looks to be rebuilding the eyewall after the collapse

https://i.imgur.com/O0dAT4W.gif

That is what I was thinking - a new, slightly larger eyewall seems to be developing

[aspen]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xDx7JMv/9b3daa63-39dc-482c-bab5-f09be0fa6fc7.gif [/url]
Ugliest Cat 4/5 on satellite ATM... Shear kicking in!

Not ugly enough. That’s still a 130-135 kt system there, and the longer it stubbornly holds on to Cat 4 intensity, the less time it’s gonna have to weaken. Getting even worse for Florida.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1843989618003497347

[jasons2k]

Seems to be undergoing eyewall replacement and if successful would mean a stronger storm less influenced by the shear and a more northerly component. Final landfall will likely come down to some wobbles just before landfall, and I’m concerned a stronger northern side of the storm will act to “tug” Milton a couple times north as he approaches the coast.

Long story short: nobody around Tampa Bay should be sounding an all clear.