ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

<snip>

Was that left side magnification pic legit?? I know that the right side was.

That left picture is clearly AI. The content has been deleted.

Remember, gang, if you retweet something, you own it. The mods/admins will treat it as if you're the OP.

[TallyTracker]

The obscured eye may just be the shear pushing high level clouds over the core. I don’t think the core collapsed at all. The eyewall looks fairly steady on radar under the hood. I’d expect steady but not rapid weakening with this configuration.

[GCANE]

I think at some point, the negative-tilted trof will nudge Milton back west a little.

[skillz305]

I know we are wobble watching but very well still within the cone

[kevin]

The eye is becoming clearer again on IR, which makes it easier to pinpoint the location. I currently have it at 25.32N, 84.69W. Recon confirmed 24.7N, 85.0W at 10:23z. That means that Milton's average movement over the last 2 hours was 24 degrees east of north aka NNE. Its heading will probably become more NE soon, but that's a significant wobble to the north and puts it almost exactly back on the forecast track.

[TonyWeatherMan]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

I haven't seen that many posts but I agree with your sentiment. I hope mods are able to deal with such posts like that. This is still a Category 5 in terms of impacts. Winds are only a small fraction of the impacts.

It hasn’t been too much of it but enough to where as I’m going thru the multiple pages refreshing it keeps coming up. It really just came off to me as ppl want two things either:

A. Sub 900 mb monster with flawless structure

B. Decouple and die


Here’s the thing guys….NEITHER is gonna happen. Unfortunately this is shaping up to be a serious generational event.

[ronjon]

Not seeing shear tearing away cirrus. Shear gets to the destructive level around 18z but since the vector is close to the storms movement, a lot of that will be mitigated.

https://i.imgur.com/1JZfroM.gif

There is however some erosion of convection on the west side and intrusion of dry air. Some of the hurricane models are showing this dry air wrapping in around the south side of the storm as it approaches the coast. We'll have to see if this occurs later on today.

[eastcoastFL]

The eye looks ragged right now on radar to the west. But to the east everything looks good for Milton.

[eastcoastFL]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

I haven't seen that many posts but I agree with your sentiment. I hope mods are able to deal with such posts like that. This is still a Category 5 in terms of impacts. Winds are only a small fraction of the impacts.

It hasn’t been too much of it but enough to where as I’m going thru the multiple pages refreshing it keeps coming up. It really just came off to me as ppl want two things either:

A. Sub 900 mb monster with flawless structure

B. Decouple and die


Here’s the thing guys….NEITHER is gonna happen. Unfortunately this is shaping up to be a serious generational event.

Well it already accomplished A. Now I’m ready for B.

[TheBigO]

Just got an evacuation notice for Seminole Co. holy moly.

All four of our phones went off at the same time (two work and two personal). We were watching Eric Burris on coffee talk and he had to call the station to see what the heck was going on. I laughed when the clarification announcement on the evacuation noticed was clarified a few minutes later.

[Stellar]

So...just a thought....hundreds of tons of waste from Helene are on the street around Tampa Bay, and almost none of it is contained. Probably half of it (or more) will float. What happens when all of that gets loose in the surge, clogs up the Bay entrance, and 12+ inches of rain in the surrounding watershed all funnels down into the Bay? Freshwater flooding may be a very significant problem in the days after the hurricane passes.

[lovingseason2013]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

I haven't seen that many posts but I agree with your sentiment. I hope mods are able to deal with such posts like that. This is still a Category 5 in terms of impacts. Winds are only a small fraction of the impacts.

It hasn’t been too much of it but enough to where as I’m going thru the multiple pages refreshing it keeps coming up. It really just came off to me as ppl want two things either:

A. Sub 900 mb monster with flawless structure

B. Decouple and die


Here’s the thing guys….NEITHER is gonna happen. Unfortunately this is shaping up to be a serious generational event.

Ill take option B please. But I know it wont happen, I just don't want an apocalypse type scenario for my friends and family down there. It does seem option A is becoming less likely at least.

[Gotwood]

I think it’s pretty obvious based on radar the eye will begin to shift back towards Tampa area. It isn’t even raining in the Fort Myers area this storm is being pushed North IMO.

[Kingarabian]

It isn't really until shear becomes disruptive in the mid levels that systems this deep start to weaken. Seen countless cases in the EPAC. When that happens is anyone's guess.

[Michele B]

You don't see a difference? Compare IR image from 1.5 hrs ago to now. Winds/Pressure will respond shortly.

Absolutely. I think the reflection in surface pressure rises will be dramatic and commence sooner than I had expected. In fact, given the satellite presentation, I am beginning to wonder if extratropical transition might well begin a good deal earlier and prior to landfall, than forecasted while traversing the peninsula?

Perfect storms like Milton are more vulnerable to shear during EWRC, in fact the core winds can actually collide if the shear was strong enough but that is a miracle scenario that practically never happens.

Well, miracles are possible!

Let's pray we get one here.

[USTropics]

This really is going to impact almost all parts of Florida today/tonight/tomorrow morning. I'll highlight those threats:

Initial threat currently are tornadic cells. We've seen rotating cells offshore all night and we're starting to get some onshore. Almost all of SFL is under a tornado watch currently, with some warnings just now popping up. This will continue throughout the day and for the entire event, SPC has hatched this area (if you don't know what this means, it's a pretty big deal and signifies a significant threat for tornadic activity):




As we get closer to landfall this evening, surge will become a focal point. It doesn't matter if Milton is a category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, the surge extent and spatial bounds will be closer to a category 5 hurricane.


It's unknown how much weakening Milton will undergo before landfall. While steady weakening at the minimal should be expected, we are starting at a VERY high ceiling (Milton is still a very strong category 4 hurricane right now). The wind field will expand significantly today, and wind gusts are going to be a serious issue and spread over a larger area. Here is a forecast from the 00z ECMWF model for wind gust peaks:


So either way, there is going to be 3-pronged threat today for ~80% of Floridians. Stay vigilant and up-to-date!

[tropicwatch]

Key West is approximately 175miles southeast of Milton's eye. They are reporting sustained TS force Winds. Source C-Man Station SANF1 Winds 39mph gusts to 49mph.

[caneman]

Clear wobble north on IR as the eye filled in. Average heading of the last few hours still takes it to Sarasota.

I see more Longboat Key and not ruling out the beautiful Anna Maria Island

[Mike33534]

If it gets this EWRC done, Tampa area is staring at a cat 4 landfall. May god have mercy on their souls!

*venice area

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye is becoming clearer again on IR, which makes it easier to pinpoint the location. I currently have it at 25.32N, 84.69W. Recon confirmed 24.7N, 85.0W at 10:23z. That means that Milton's average movement over the last 2 hours was 24 degrees east of north aka NNE. Its heading will probably become more NE soon, but that's a significant wobble to the north and puts it almost exactly back on the forecast track.

It's looking very similar to what we were seeing yesterday at this time with the completion of the EWRC. Already deep convection is wrapping around the center.