ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Clear wobble north on IR as the eye filled in. Average heading of the last few hours still takes it to Sarasota.

I see more Longboat Key and not ruling out the beautiful Anna Maria Island

Knowing my area, Lido Key north to Anna Maria is the probably landfall. If I had to get more specific, I'm spitballing somewhere between Bayshore Gardens to Cortez.

[chaser1]

So...just a thought....hundreds of tons of waste from Helene are on the street around Tampa Bay, and almost none of it is contained. Probably half of it (or more) will float. What happens when all of that gets loose in the surge, clogs up the Bay entrance, and 12+ inches of rain in the surrounding watershed all funnels down into the Bay? Freshwater flooding may be a very significant problem in the days after the hurricane passes.

A mental picture of an ant that falls into a massive bowl of split-pea soup, comes to mind

[N2FSU]

9:00am NHC track is now 40 degrees, 5 degrees left from 5:00am. I shot a 40 degree heading off the center on radar in Foreflight, then turned the radar layer off. What you get is a direct hit on Tampa Bay:






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pipelines182]

Shear will remain relatively low until 00z per the GFS, before rapidly increasing. There is room for another peak today, or at the least steady strength.

https://i.imgur.com/EC13r14.png

That’s concerning, there was supposed to be high shear all day today. That only gives Milton 3-6 hours of hostile conditions before landfall. Explains why the intensity models are showing a much stronger storm at landfall today.

[Centralflamama]

Clear wobble north on IR as the eye filled in. Average heading of the last few hours still takes it to Sarasota.

I see more Longboat Key and not ruling out the beautiful Anna Maria Island

Knowing my area, Lido Key north to Anna Maria is the probably landfall. If I had to get more specific, I'm spitballing somewhere between Bayshore Gardens to Cortez.

[jfk08c]

9:00am NHC track is now 40 degrees, 5 degrees left from 5:00am. I shot a 40 degree heading off the center on radar in Foreflight, then turned the radar layer off. What you get is a direct hit on Tampa Bay:



https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241009/857b97fb4990128b5336a27d3072c68c.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Also have to keep in mind they are factoring in a pull to the east at some point. When and where that happens makes all the difference in the world

[Mike33534]

Clear wobble north on IR as the eye filled in. Average heading of the last few hours still takes it to Sarasota.

I see more Longboat Key and not ruling out the beautiful Anna Maria Island

Knowing my area, Lido Key north to Anna Maria is the probably landfall. If I had to get more specific, I'm spitballing somewhere between Bayshore Gardens to Cortez.

my dad lives in bayshore gardens, they did evacuate to a hotel out east a bit near university.

[kevin]

Very strong wording in the 9am NHC update.

Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life
and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are
in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible
flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Some good news... the roads don't look to bad right now so if you haven't evacuated and are wanting to now...there is an opportunity to do so if you act quickly.

[johngaltfla]

I see more Longboat Key and not ruling out the beautiful Anna Maria Island

Knowing my area, Lido Key north to Anna Maria is the probably landfall. If I had to get more specific, I'm spitballing somewhere between Bayshore Gardens to Cortez.

my dad lives in bayshore gardens, they did evacuate to a hotel out east a bit near university.

Good call. Easily 10-20 ft of storm surge in that area. It's low lying, angled towards Gulf and intercoastal, so very susceptible to surge.

[underthwx]

From NHC......Hurricane Milton
Advisory Number 17A
08 AM EDT Wednesday October 09, 2024

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-3 ft
Palm Beach/Martin County Line, FL to Sebastian Inlet, FL...1-3 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Yankeetown, FL...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-3 ft

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC has moved to hourly updates now

[Ubuntwo]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

Tony, I agree with your sentiment. But one correction - many hurricanes with pinhole eyes undergo ERC. Wilma famously went through several, expanding from the smallest eye on record to a colossal truck tire eye by the time it passed over southern florida.

I thought Wilma went truck tire because it wrecked its existing core over land and then built a large one once re-emerging over water. Different from EWRC.

Wilma’s ERC was completed before making landfall. Land interaction did help it expand further, but it already had a much larger eye than its original pinhole at that point. Fortunately, it looks like Milton’s time to run through and complete an ERC appears to be coming to a close due to steadily rising shear.

[wxman57]

It's still hard to pinpoint the exact landfall. I'm using satellite & radar to measure 2 an 3-hr movement. Currently I'm getting a 2-hr movement toward 35 deg at 17 kts, which would put the center into northern Tampa Bay by 7pm this evening. However, we do expect more of an ENE movement at some point. Our forecast is still a little south of Sarasota, but I'd like to see some ENE movement by early this afternoon to keep it out of TB.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Shear will remain relatively low until 00z per the GFS, before rapidly increasing. There is room for another peak today, or at the least steady strength.

https://i.imgur.com/EC13r14.png

That’s concerning, there was supposed to be high shear all day today. That only gives Milton 3-6 hours of hostile conditions before landfall. Explains why the intensity models are showing a much stronger storm at landfall today.

For the last several days models have been moving the shear zone further north with each run, so this is not too terribly surprising.

[underthwx]

Some good news... the roads don't look to bad right now so if you haven't evacuated and are wanting to now...there is an opportunity to do so if you act quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/qJ0CezF.png

That's important to know Scott....for those that want to leave...but are concerned about going nowhere quick...or being stuck in gridlock as the cyclone approaches....theres still opportunities to leave...but that window of opportunity is closing as each hour passes....traffic reports are also vital in this event...

[WaveBreaking]

Fortunately, it looks like Milton’s time to run through and complete an ERC appears to be coming to a close due to steadily rising shear.

Yeah I agree. That inner eyewall refuses to give up on radar.

[sicktght311]

Inner eyewall seems to have collapsed in the last 2 frames on IR. EWRC taking place likely

[ScottNAtlanta]

Some good news... the roads don't look to bad right now so if you haven't evacuated and are wanting to now...there is an opportunity to do so if you act quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/qJ0CezF.png

That's important to know Scott....for those that want to leave...but are concerned about going nowhere quick...or being stuck in gridlock as the cyclone approaches....theres still opportunities to leave...but that window of opportunity is closing as each hour passes....traffic reports are also vital in this event...

I also checked several of the cameras and traffic was surprisingly light. I would advise anyone to check FL511.com and select traffic cameras and you can see live conditions on a possible route out. This makes me think that lots of people headed out early as advised.

[chaser1]

I don't recall hearing any recent recon vortex data (outside that one sonde drop about 10 miles south of the eye). Would really like to know current pressure.