ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Good to see Milton weakening.

[Weatherboy1]

Tornado warning for where we live (West Boca), with radar and video-confirmed tornado on mile marker 30 on Alligator Alley. On one of the tornado tracker apps, I can see four active spots west of us, towards the Everglades. What is my next-door neighbor doing? Mowing his yard.

About 10 minutes ago I saw a couple people road-biking down the street in downtown SRQ. Sooooo...

[cheezyWXguy]

Expect to see those flight level winds come back up a bit as the inner eyewall dissipates. Even though conditions are turning more unfavorable the winds will soon be distributed across only one eyewall, instead of the current two.

[Steve]

https://imgur.com/a/75y0rvF

From the local broadcast. Things already feel like they’re stirring up here. Gonna be an interesting day.

Thinking about all the fam on the west coast. If you decided to stay your in my thoughts.

I’m a long time viewer and a very new poster so I think I posted the IMGUR link incorrectly - I’m sorry!

Use img /img

[Zonacane]

Still a very sharp pressure gradient and well defined vortex. 

[kevin]

Two hours ago Milton was at 25.32N, 84.69W. Recon now seems to indicate that Milton is at 25.70N, 84.44W. This is a heading of 30 degrees east of west. If the heading continues it'll make landfall in Clearwater. Of course that won't happen, but this shows that even if you account for the expected east turn, a route into the bay is still definitely a possibility.

[xironman]

You guys looking at the radar you have to keep in mind that most likely center is already tilted pretty good to the right because of the shear, so in actuality it very likely is to the SW or WSW of where the center appears on radar.

Very close when looking at actual observations

[MetsIslesNoles]

Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...

florida sits on an aquifer. no basements that I know of...maybe in the panhandle

They exist in the panhandle but they are super rare.

[Bluehawk]

Tornado warning for where we live (West Boca), with radar and video-confirmed tornado on mile marker 30 on Alligator Alley. On one of the tornado tracker apps, I can see four active spots west of us, towards the Everglades. What is my next-door neighbor doing? Mowing his yard.

About 10 minutes ago I saw a couple people road-biking down the street in downtown SRQ. Sooooo...

I guess that takes the cake... though I am not sure which noise is closer to what an approaching tornado would sound like huh. (Thankfully, I have never heard one live; I know it it supposed to sound as an approaching train would sound; I know what a train sounds like, yet somehow that noise still got me lol not lol)

[zal0phus]

Remember that Milton is still going to bring a horrifying amount of surge, no matter how weak its winds might become. Nobody can afford to get complacent.

[underthwx]

So do we have a better idea yet where this is going? Girlfriend's parents live in St Pete Beach. They booked a flight on monday to evacuate tuesday, but all flights got cancelled. They are headed up by Seminole and a few miles inland to stay with a family member. They didn't have a car because it was totaled during Helene. I'm getting very worried for them.

I grew up in Seminole. High and dry there, no worries except for wind. Used to go to Indian Rocks Beach for swimming. Sad for all the devastation there.

Seminole County has issued evacuation orders for special needs citizens....mobile homes...and low lying areas

[Orlando]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

It's starting to change shape.

[aspen]

Good to see Milton weakening.

https://i.imgur.com/OSmVxln.png

Pressure remains steady but wow the FL winds took an even greater hit than I thought.

[jhpigott]

Good to see Milton weakening.

https://i.imgur.com/OSmVxln.png

Pressure remains steady but wow the FL winds took an even greater hit than I thought.

I would think the wind field is significantly expanding as a result?

[CronkPSU]

cat 3 at landfall now

145 mph at 11 AM advisory

[CronkPSU]

from the 11 AM discussion

Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.

We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.

[NDG]

Fresh new calculations on the Headings bases off of the latest extra pressure found by the AF recon.

9 hr average heading: 33 degrees
6 hr average heading: 32 degrees
3 hr average heading: 24 degrees

So the last 3 hours we can confirm a NNW heading as shown on radar.

Edit: Meant to type NNE, not NNW.
Two hours of sleep is catching up.

[FLpanhandle91]

Rreally curious what the NE side looks like. It's ripping on radar. Inner eyewall seems to be holding its own. I wonder if this will be a meld.

[PTPatrick]

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1844019934902575591?s=46

I respect Mcnoldy but he really has been beating the south drum for days in a not terribly productive way. I understand the verification early on has been poor but like with stocks, past performance is not indicative of future results. I give the NHC some grace on the early miss with not clocking how close this would get to Mexico. models really struggled with this early on and even when it was in early TS phase. It’s generally best to bet against explosive rapid RI until it’s happening, and I imagine that also impacted track. But just becuase they have been north of track doesn’t mean they always will be. Storms getting steered like this often move on parabolas but don’t care where they came from. Katrina crossing Florida kept going south of forecast too and ultimately swung right at landfall. The point is, the storm doesn’t care where the nhc had it 3 days ago, it will go where it wants today, and it isn’t a great reason to cast doubt on NHC’s accuracy or professionalism in the midst of what may be one of the areas worst storms of record. But hey everybody needs clicks and engagement I guess. Nice data, but I would like to see his own forecast from 5 days ago if he’s going to throw shade.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like an eyewall meld to me either the ne side of the inner eye merging with the outer eyewall so maybe both a meld and replacement