ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

The SW quadrant was reported to have 85 knot flight-level winds, corresponding to 80 knot surface winds. Weakening fast for sure

wow really? That is quite a bit weaker than I expected this soon. Won't be surprised if the NHC drops the windspeed lower at landfall by quite a bit on the next advisory or two.

The NHC forecaster today used to be on my team about 6-8 years ago. The NHC will be very careful not to indicate anything that might make the public return to the beaches. Their job is to keep people safe. If that means inflating the predicted intensity a little, then so be it. Better to keep people out of harm's way. They'll keep it a Cat 3 up to landfall, even though data may indicate Cat 2. They did that with Rita in 2005. One of the guys on the recon prior to Rita's landfall is on my team today. He said they could not find Cat 3 winds prior to landfall. Let's hope that dry air flows right in and knocks Milton's intensity down further.

[tolakram]

Watching a hurricane undergo extratropical transition in the GoM before it even hits land is quite interesting LOL. This is probably why the tornado threat from this hurricane is so intense.

I'm not seeing anything extra tropical about this ...

My understanding of the forecast was that the front that is interacting with it is introducing an extratropical dimension. And that the system is projected to be extratropical by the time it gets to the other side of Florida. Feel free to correct my layman understanding as this is still quite a complicated setup. Because otherwise what is explaining the tornado situation we are seeing here?

Why post this when you can READ the forecast at the NHC or the one I just posted above.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton looks on track as far as track and intensity goes. 115mph landfall looks right to me. Nail biter as even the smallest shift north could result in a catastrophic disaster for Tampa.

[Tireman4]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

Yep, I was going to mention another ugly storm stuck in an ERC. There is nowhere for that water to go when it hits land and I fear we will be hearing about UNEXPECTED damage for months. I hope I'm wrong.

As a Hurricane Ike (2008) veteran, I can attest to all of what Mark stated. I am still not sure Galveston has completely ( ecological wise) recovered.

[Xyls]

Seen 2 pro-mets (Levi Cowan on Monday, looking at HWRF, another pro-met on a Discord page) mention the possibility of a sting jet depending on exactly how the dry air interacts with the southern eyewall. It seemed, from my limited understanding, that there could be very strong winds mixed down near/S of landfall.

Exactly, I was going to say this hurricane is kind of reminding me of Hurricane Arthur (2014) see my profile pic which was nasty up here in Atlantic Canada. Milton is almost more reminiscent of something you would see moving north in the North Atlantic right now than a typical GOM system imo.

[cheezyWXguy]

the news keep getting better and better, thanks wxman! Maybe our prayers are being answered. Do you think a cat 1 is even possible at landfall due to this rapid weakening?

You seem to be selectively filtering information for only the positives and completely ignoring the negatives. If anyone in the path that isn’t diligently informed is reading this, they are going to get the wrong idea. The facts are:
- the storm has been expected to weaken on approach
- wind, while a notable threat, is not THE threat - surge is
- the storm is growing in size, which will increase the distribution of impacts, including wind and surge over a larger area

Nothing has really changed. People need to continue taking this as seriously as they have been. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don’t tune it out because you want it to be less severe.

Nothing has changed? Nothing? clearly things are changing, and not all for the worse or even same.

Please specify.

[mpic]

If people describing real-time conditions or what they are doing to be safe, etc. Would state what area they are in, it would be even more helpful. Each storm brings new people in to see what's going on and it would help them to relate to the area they are in. For example, somebody in Tampa saying they are leaving means a lot more than somebody in the Keys saying they are hunkered down. I have friends on the west coast and seeing posts without location content can be so easily misconstrued. Does that makes sense? Sometimes I'm not good with putting my thoughts on paper.

[jasons2k]

11am had Milton at 25.8N, 84.3W. Recon now found the center at 25.98N, 84.28W which means that Milton's average heading has been almost due north due last 2 hours.

Color me shocked.

[TomballEd]

At this point I don't think the EWRC will ever complete between the shear and the time left over water. Its broadening the wind field. The two HAFS have been doing a decent job the past few days in depicting how the eye would open with little or no precip in the southern half of the circulation on landfall. But it is half a day from landfall, even spinning down to Cat 2, which seems more likely than not, it is a major almost to landfall and it will have a surge like a major.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

living in the path, yeah, I think it dropping in strength is great news

If anything happening today is surprising to you then you've missed all the important messages from the last 36 hours. The storm is behaving almost exactly as forecast.

[Tireman4]

The SW quadrant was reported to have 85 knot flight-level winds, corresponding to 80 knot surface winds. Weakening fast for sure

wow really? That is quite a bit weaker than I expected this soon. Won't be surprised if the NHC drops the windspeed lower at landfall by quite a bit on the next advisory or two.

The NHC forecaster today used to be on my team about 6-8 years ago. The NHC will be very careful not to indicate anything that might make the public return to the beaches. Their job is to keep people safe. If that means inflating the predicted intensity a little, then so be it. Better to keep people out of harm's way. They'll keep it a Cat 3 up to landfall, even though data may indicate Cat 2. They did that with Rita in 2005. One of the guys on the recon prior to Rita's landfall is on my team today. He said they could not find Cat 3 winds prior to landfall. Let's hope that dry air flows right in and knocks Milton's intensity down further.

I think I know the guy. Let me say you and your team do a great job during the hurricane season.

[TomballEd]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1251 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Eastern Charlotte County in southwestern Florida...
South central DeSoto County in south central Florida...
Northern Lee County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 115 PM EDT.

* At 1251 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located near Babcock Webb Wma, or 12 miles north of Fort Myers,
moving north at 25 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
Babcock Webb Wma around 1255 PM EDT.

[Nimbus]

Seen 2 pro-mets (Levi Cowan on Monday, looking at HWRF, another pro-met on a Discord page) mention the possibility of a sting jet depending on exactly how the dry air interacts with the southern eyewall. It seemed, from my limited understanding, that there could be very strong winds mixed down near/S of landfall.

WXman57 mentioned baroclinic forcing earlier.
Winds from a standard front blow from the SW to NE but NDG said he thought the trough might go negative tilt.
Usually troughs enhance the eastern quadrant windfields after they blow the center apart though.

[Sciencerocks]

121 knt flight level/110 knt smrf in northeast quad. Probably a 110 knot cat3. Will weaken to 95-100 knots by tonight as it is moving into stronger shear as it heads north.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

Yep, I was going to mention another ugly storm stuck in an ERC. There is nowhere for that water to go when it hits land and I fear we will be hearing about UNEXPECTED damage for months. I hope I'm wrong.

As a Hurricane Ike (2008) veteran, I can attest to all of what Mark stated. I am still not sure Galveston has completely ( ecological wise) recovered.

Galveston, seemingly, has. Bolivar and points east on the other hand…

That’s why it’s so important for folks not to focus on the Category.

[sponger]

I would not get too excited yet by weakening. Hurricane models suggest another burst before beginning to weaken right at landfall.

[shawn67]

121 knt flight level/110 knt smrf in northeast quad. Probably a 110 knot cat3. Will weaken to 95-100 knots by tonight as it is moving into stronger shear as it heads north.

Is that a forecast or prediction?

[eastcoastFL]

There is no Extratropical transition here. Not a chance.

It's quite literally been in the NHC discussion in every forecast since yesterday.

After it crosses Florida.

“As it crosses Florida”

[Steve]

Bunch of tornado warnings out there right now as expected. Some of the observed ones were way stronger than F0’s. Crazy but expected.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricane Rita hit as weakening Cat 3 (arguably a Cat 2) after its peak at a similar intensity as Milton... Cameron Parish saw 18 ft of storm surge. I'm just saying.