ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TampaWxLurker]

Reminds me of Charley. Was a teenager in 2004, woke up super early in the morning that day, turned on WFLA and Steve Jerve as they tracked the storm.

I'll never forget the moment where he and his team were tracking it on radar, and it started to turn, earlier than was expected at the time, and they raised the alarm for Punta Gorda. Can't believe it's been 20 years.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1844117698940371133

[SVT1118]

Can anyone tell me what this current track looks like for St Pete Beach?

[NDG]

They finally moved the forecast track over Longboat Key/Bradenton.

[tolakram]

Can anyone tell me what this current track looks like for St Pete Beach?

No, watch and see where it goes. There is no more accurate prediction of a wobbling storm heading to the coast.

[xironman]

 https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1844117698940371133

It will mix down during strong thunderstorms

[NDG]

 https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1844117698940371133

It will mix down during strong thunderstorms

That will not be good for Pinellas County.

[xironman]

Can anyone tell me what this current track looks like for St Pete Beach?

No, watch and see where it goes. There is no more accurate prediction of a wobbling storm heading to the coast.

Treasure Island beach has been my landfall location for two days no. I'm close.

[CrazyC83]

That wind to the north makes me think it is already starting to go into extratropical transition, and it may be ET before it re-emerges in the Atlantic. I wonder if the baroclinic forcing will offset the shear and keep it at its current strength up to landfall?

[Poonwalker]

 https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1844117698940371133

That will be really bad for the barrier islands of Pinellas that were already hit. I know so many that already lost their belongings that are piled in the street. Homes gutted also

[johngaltfla]

Denis Philips sounding very concerned for Tampa Bay, saying that he is not seeing any easterly component to spare the Bay area, and that yes while it has weakened wind wise, its just right now a big machine pushing energy and water onto the coast.

i was worried he was a bit too confident the last two days about that big right hook...hope it still happens but thought he was putting too much faith in "these storms always wobble south and east"

Never lose faith in the ICON.

[TR772]

Between Bradenton and Sarasota.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Can anyone tell me what this current track looks like for St Pete Beach?

Could get that monstrous NW eyewall. But everyone there has had plenty of time to evacuate so should be okay.

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s definitely slowed, but it’s hard to tell if that’s altered the heading yet. Center appears to be near the northern eyewall based on radar velocity data. For a super rough approximation of its heading with respect to Tampa Bay, we can watch this gray line, which represents where winds are fully perpendicular to the radar beam. Follow this line into the eye and you get a rough approximation of the center. I’ve marked my approximation with a dot under the L.

Since the radar site is very near Tampa bay, we can get a very basic idea of if there is an increasing risk for this area by watching how that gray line shifts. If the storm starts moving east, the gray line will turn more vertical. More north, and the line will turn more horizontal over time.

[TomballEd]

Damaging tornado in the newer developments built to the W of West Palm Beach. Videos on X

[CronkPSU]

Tampa is actually BACK in the cone now after being out of it at the 11AM forecast

[xironman]

That wind to the north makes me think it is already starting to go into extratropical transition, and it may be ET before it re-emerges in the Atlantic. I wonder if the baroclinic forcing will offset the shear and keep it at its current strength up to landfall?

Do you think the land friction will tighten the circulation?

[Hurricaneman]

Being on the Lake/Polk county line I’m expecting 80mph sustained with gusts over 100

[TampaWxLurker]

If it wanted to stall out there for a few hours and sit and spin, I wouldn't mind. Let it lose its tidal wake, let it continue to weaken for a few more hours and then move inland as a weaker storm would be great.
We'll see if the slowdown is temporary or a long-term change, though.

[loon]

so if this eye travels directly over the bay, is that better for Tampa and the bay, than if it went just north? or is it the same?