ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

I rarely post but have to chime in knowing this thread will be iconic for decades. I'm not a Met and I realize the pros are saying a Belize'ish SA hit, but if I lived anywhere from Tampico MX to Galveston TX I'd be thinking hard about making preparations. The pros/models also suggest this will be Cat 1'ish at landfall - I certainly wouldn't put my savings on that envelope after watching all the late intensifications we've witnessed the last few years. And since I'm on the west coast of Florida, I'm especially concerned with the trailing wave. Pros/models suggest it may not be much to worry about once it hits/if it runs up into/ the GOM. We'll see... I'm not banking on that. Not yet. Forecasting is significantly better than 5-10 years ago but never forget its not 100%. Stay safe everyone.

Oh, you can bet that this storm will be referenced to and talked about across future hurricane seasons.

[galaxy401]

Yeah we keep bringing up the Dennis and Emily analogies but with the way it's going, Beryl will be the big analog to compare for early season MDR hurricanes.

[Teban54]

Yeah we keep bringing up the Dennis and Emily analogies but with the way it's going, Beryl will be the big analog to compare for early season MDR hurricanes.

Beryl must have been triggered that people were comparing it to Gonzalo, Elsa, Bonnie, Bret, Cindy, and its 2018 version.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah we keep bringing up the Dennis and Emily analogies but with the way it's going, Beryl will be the big analog to compare for early season MDR hurricanes.

Beryl must have been triggered that people were comparing it to Gonzalo, Elsa, Bonnie, Bret, Cindy, and its 2018 version.

Right now, the only real analogs appear to be Dennis and Emily, and possibly 1933.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah we keep bringing up the Dennis and Emily analogies but with the way it's going, Beryl will be the big analog to compare for early season MDR hurricanes.

Beryl must have been triggered that people were comparing it to Gonzalo, Elsa, Bonnie, Bret, Cindy, and its 2018 version.

I remember the talk that Hurricane Barry (2019) could become a major hurricane. That failed to occur.

I remember the talk that Tropical Storm Gonzalo (2020) could become a major hurricane. That failed to occur.

I remember the talk that Hurricane Elsa (2021) could become a major hurricane. That failed to occur.

I remember the talk that Tropical Storm Bonnie (2022) could become a major hurricane. That failed to occur.

I remember the talk that Tropical Storm Bret (2023) could become a major hurricane. That failed to occur.

I remember the talk that Hurricane Beryl (2024) could become a major hurricane. Well....

[Chris90]

Considering the impressive microwave pass from a few hours ago and the continued improvement on IR, I would guess that Beryl is very likely already sub-975mb. Might not be a major yet, but I'm anticipating recon will find a major, probably with their first pass. Small core will allow for a greater intensification rate. I would say that how long Beryl can maintain that smaller core is the biggest current factor in how deep she can get. I think the chances for a 120kt+ peak are increasing. It's wild to say that about a CV hurricane in June.

[canebeard]

Eye juuuust starting to peek out now as can be seen in the last few frames... based on everything the experts have said today (e.g. the most recent NHC discussion using the words "unfortunately" and "pristine conditions" to describe what's about to happen as well as Dr. Cowan's explanation of the highly favorable environment Beryl will have to work with as it approaches the islands) makes me think it's going to significantly outperform the Cat 3 currently forecast at landfall:

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdWJxMnBzMGJrempyMnlqcTk2bjd3anEyMGxraWcyY3E2bDg2anZicyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/zcEhJP7eqmPXXumvVX/giphy.gif

WIth poet laureate words such as these the NHC is definitely to blame if there is a catastrophic landfall somewhere, anywhere.

[galaxy401]

Any wobble from Beryl could have huge impact for St. Vincent and Grenada. One little change could bring destruction to one of those islands.

[Teban54]

[weeniepatrol]

[weeniepatrol]

Uhhhh

[Bimms]

I rarely post but have to chime in knowing this thread will be iconic for decades. I'm not a Met and I realize the pros are saying a Belize'ish SA hit, but if I lived anywhere from Tampico MX to Galveston TX I'd be thinking hard about making preparations. The pros/models also suggest this will be Cat 1'ish at landfall - I certainly wouldn't put my savings on that envelope after watching all the late intensifications we've witnessed the last few years. And since I'm on the west coast of Florida, I'm especially concerned with the trailing wave. Pros/models suggest it may not be much to worry about once it hits/if it runs up into/ the GOM. We'll see... I'm not banking on that. Not yet. Forecasting is significantly better than 5-10 years ago but never forget its not 100%. Stay safe everyone.

I agree. I also rarely post, but I've been watching this. In the former threads when it was an invest, there were people saying there is 0 chance it would get into the Gulf or pose any threat to the US. One person was even mad that some were saying that and spoke out against it only to be told again that there was no chance it was going to hit the US. Now I'm not saying that's going to happen, but no matter how advanced we are scientifically, even with the power of AI and quantum computing, weather is something that just can't be predicted with 100% accuracy. It's a fascinating thing to watch. But until we have time machines, the best we can do is give an educated guess, but you can never give a guarantee.

[wx98]

...BERYL GETTING STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...

2:00 AM AST Sun Jun 30
Location: 10.5°N 52.2°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hurricane Beryl feels more like a WPac budding monster, or an August-type major, rather than something that pops just right when June ends.

Atlantic really stealing our thunder. Hopefully the islands are well-prepped. This should probably be a minimal cat 2 right now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hurricane Beryl feels more like a WPac budding monster, or an August-type major, rather than something that pops just right when June ends.

Atlantic really stealing our thunder. Hopefully the islands are well-prepped. This should probably be a minimal cat 2 right now.

At this point, I think they are waiting until recon arrives.

[Craters]

Well, bloody 'ell. This season is getting old already.

[PavelGaborik10]

...BERYL GETTING STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...

2:00 AM AST Sun Jun 30
Location: 10.5°N 52.2°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

Good lord....cat 1 and 983 MB?

Press X for doubt.

[kevin]

Does anyone know when recon will reach Beryl?

[zzzh]

Does anyone know when recon will reach Beryl?

1130z

[SconnieCane]

Uhhhh

https://i.imgur.com/UBaYegW.png

Just your average June central Atlantic pinhole.