ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[redingtonbeach]

I’ve been calling for a Crystal River landfall ever since the HMON model swung far east, the first one to do so while the others were saying New Orleans or so. Just a gut feeling as I’m no MET but the 200mb and 500mb winds that day, coupled with the progression of other CONUS depictions, made sense at the time. I did not notice the stacking issue in the model, however. It just seemed to be right loaded as it entered the GOM.

No models were saying New Orleans when the HMON first ran yesterday…

My bad. It was the GEM on the 12th that was south of Tampa.

[CrazyC83]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mkp3q4Kc/goes16-ir-09-L-202409240135.gif [/url]

Nice little pulse of deep convection just E of the 11pm position of 18.4N/82.4W… PTC9 Been hanging around this position most of the day…

Perhaps the MLC will redevelop there and that will become the dominant center instead?

[stormhunter7]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mkp3q4Kc/goes16-ir-09-L-202409240135.gif [/url]

Nice little pulse of deep convection just E of the 11pm position of 18.4N/82.4W… PTC9 Been hanging around this position most of the day…

Perhaps the MLC will redevelop there and that will become the dominant center instead?

Good thing Recon is enroute across the GOM to find out what's under that hood!

[caneman]

Massive hot tower there. We will see if it holds through the night.

[StPeteMike]

Thoughts before bed…

Even though I would love for this to be a bust storm and nothing develops, that is not the reality. Hopefully we get TS status by 8 am and watches and evacuation orders can start rolling out. Even with a Big Bend landfall, NHC has 9 feet projected in the Tampa Bay region. That’s a lot of people to evacuate with about 2 days, considering that encompass both Zone A and B in the coastal and riverfront areas.

Love that the models have a weaker hurricane, but I have been here before. The water temps that future Helene will go over don’t lie, she will have gasoline to ramp up. I still expect a major hurricane impact somewhere in Florida.

Tomorrow is going to be a crazy day for this area, as well as much of the Big Bend region. I’m hoping the models can show consistency on the landfall throughout tomorrow so we have an understanding on what residents should do. Crazy that at 48 hours from when I’ll wake up for work, we will be starting to feel the affects of future Helene and we have nothing yet. I think anyone that lives on FL West Coast has all means to feel anxious. But if you check with 90% of the people in the region, they either don’t know there’s a storm or have written it off already.

Night y’all!

[stltkd]

Thoughts before bed

Tomorrow is going to be a crazy day for this area, as well as much of the Big Bend region. I’m hoping the models can show consistency on the landfall throughout tomorrow so we have an understanding on what residents should do. Crazy that at 48 hours from when I’ll wake up for work, we will be starting to feel the affects of future Helene and we have nothing yet. I think anyone that lives on FL West Coast has all means to feel anxious. But if you check with 90% of the people in the region, they either don’t know there’s a storm or have written it off already.

Night y’all!

I work part-time at a Walgreens in Lee County, FL. I have already seen a major uptick in essentials sales - water, propane, and alcohol were major hot sellers tonight. Much more so than when this far out than when Ian hit. While, most are still not super anxious, people seem to be taking this one more seriously.

[TomballEd]

They still have the blue color SWIR at the CIMSS site, not as easy to see low level vs high level flow as when SSD used the blue colored SWIR, but I think convection is trying to build over the LLC and that the LLC being better coupled to the MLC is imminent. If I was NHC, I would have requested one more low level mission today.

[CrazyC83]

From what I can tell, the LLC is at 18.1N 82.2W. That would be on the western edge of that large ball of convection, as opposed to far removed.

Maybe the old MLC is dissipating as well? Hard to say.

[Poonwalker]

From what I can tell, the LLC is at 18.1N 82.2W. That would be on the western edge of that large ball of convection, as opposed to far removed.

Maybe the old MLC is dissipating as well? Hard to say.

the Hafs models are picking that up as the LLC. Euro as well.

[LandoWill]

Thoughts before bed…

Even though I would love for this to be a bust storm and nothing develops, that is not the reality. Hopefully we get TS status by 8 am and watches and evacuation orders can start rolling out. Even with a Big Bend landfall, NHC has 9 feet projected in the Tampa Bay region. That’s a lot of people to evacuate with about 2 days, considering that encompass both Zone A and B in the coastal and riverfront areas.

Love that the models have a weaker hurricane, but I have been here before. The water temps that future Helene will go over don’t lie, she will have gasoline to ramp up. I still expect a major hurricane impact somewhere in Florida.

Tomorrow is going to be a crazy day for this area, as well as much of the Big Bend region. I’m hoping the models can show consistency on the landfall throughout tomorrow so we have an understanding on what residents should do. Crazy that at 48 hours from when I’ll wake up for work, we will be starting to feel the affects of future Helene and we have nothing yet. I think anyone that lives on FL West Coast has all means to feel anxious. But if you check with 90% of the people in the region, they either don’t know there’s a storm or have written it off already.

Night y’all!

That's typical for this area, we've been gaslit for 40 years, that the big one would come, and it never does. You never know of course. Just look at Elena, it did loops and was coming for us when i was like 8-9 years old lol ,. i still remember the days in the shelter.

[TomballEd]

Over the on the models thread- after a muted 18Z following a nuclear 12Z series of runs, the high res hurricane models are swinging back to significant hurricane mode.

Upper low near the Yucatan that has been shearing PTC9 is backing W, shear should be dropping as modeled.

[TomballEd]

Nobody has been gaslit on Tampa hurricanes. 50 years ago I heard of the protective dome left by the Native Americans. Big hurricanes are infrequent, and the models are not programmed to deceive. Tampa may go one hundred years before 'The Big One'. Or it could happen as soon as Wednesday night.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Even with a Big Bend landfall, NHC has 9 feet projected in the Tampa Bay region.

On this product that 9 feet in places means:

"*Displayed flooding values indicate the water height that has about a 1-in-10 (10%) chance of being exceeded."

That's not an NHC forecast.

"This map is based on PSURGE 2.0 guidance. Probabilistic and exceedance output can be viewed here: http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/.

The NHC isn't yet forecasting surge for places other than southwest Florida in the public advisory:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/#:~:text=STORM%20SURGE:

It's too early yet for areas further northward.

[ConvergenceZone]

Over the on the models thread- after a muted 18Z following a nuclear 12Z series of runs, the high res hurricane models are swinging back to significant hurricane mode.

Upper low near the Yucatan that has been shearing PTC9 is backing W, shear should be dropping as modeled.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNGM1MnVwcXYzMG9zeDF5c2NiZ3ZseHNxZWozY2RiazNoZHhzN2thNCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/UPNCSoz2xGkhDaLBmv/giphy.gif

I think it's only the over excited H Models(can never remember the letters) that are showing anything real significant. All the others are the same or weaker, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Woofde]

Going to be some light sleep night's for sure with this one. I have a strange feeling that this going to be another Perrycane much to my chaser anoyance. I pray not, those poor people in Perry man... Idalia was horrible for them, then Debby didn't help. I cannot imagine them having fully repaired since I was last there. This could end up as a permanent exodus event for that area if it does smack there. Seriously getting hit by back to back major hurricanes would take incredibly horrible luck. The return rate for this area is supposed to be 36 years.

[kevin]

Recon is entering the storm now. Still far away from the center and winds already support an intensity of 35 kt. General pressure in the region also seems to have dropped as it's now 1005 mbar still about 250 km (150 miles) from the center.

[GCANE]

Big-time blow up in convection.
All the convective debris from yesterday afternoon's pop-up thunderstorms over CA are feeding directly into her.

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane Hunter is flying a different pattern. I like it, would think it would get a sampling of more of the storm with this pattern.

[xironman]

Hurricane Hunter is flying a different pattern. I like it, would think it would get a sampling of more of the storm with this pattern.

They will probably have the NOAA plane do a center drop for the 5am. I take that back the NOAA is synoptic

[eastcoastFL]

Over the on the models thread- after a muted 18Z following a nuclear 12Z series of runs, the high res hurricane models are swinging back to significant hurricane mode.

Upper low near the Yucatan that has been shearing PTC9 is backing W, shear should be dropping as modeled.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNGM1MnVwcXYzMG9zeDF5c2NiZ3ZseHNxZWozY2RiazNoZHhzN2thNCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/UPNCSoz2xGkhDaLBmv/giphy.gif

It looks like it's going to be tough for the system to split the channel. It might clip the western edge of Cuba.