ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Charleswachal]

Appears to have some hot towers forming on the southeast eyewall. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we might wind up with a category 5 hurricane tomorrow

[Xyls]

Appears to have some hot towers forming on the southeast eyewall. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we might wind up with a category 5 hurricane tomorrow

How conservative of you. Let's go all in and see it complete it's Maria tribute act and go for the 5 today.

[zzzh]

Flight level winds are not really rising.

[mpic]

I've been here long enough to know that it's too early for a definite answer, but this is making me nervous with the changes in the climate. Are there any early indications that it will stall once it crosses the Yucatan and repeat anything like a Harvey causing massive rains for the Houston area from rain bands? Will there be anything in place to keep it really south?

[SconnieCane]

Was just looking at the Google Street View of Codrington, Barbuda (dating from February of this year) and nearly seven years after Irma it still looks pretty rough. Although most structures are still standing, there are many with visible roof damage, piles of debris and the trees have that "shredded with a giant weed whacker" look to them like we see here in the Midwest in strong (EF3+) tornado paths. Sad to think Beryl could soon do the same to one of the southern Windwards.

[tolakram]

Wide shot. Beryl is mighty, but still tiny.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Am i seeing a wobble or was that a shift to wnw , nw in that last frames of the longwave IR

If it doesn't start moving NW it will run into SA. Hard to tell if it's a wobble or a change, will have to look back in a couple of hours.

https://i.imgur.com/6LsCgXt.png

I've been following the motion for about an hour and it has been a consistent wnw

[Xyls]

I've been here long enough to know that it's too early for a definite answer, but this is making me nervous with the changes in the climate. Are there any early indications that it will stall once it crosses the Yucatan and repeat anything like a Harvey causing massive rains for the Houston area from rain bands? Will there be anything in place to keep it really south?

It's too far out to know right now what it's plans are in the Gulf. Hell it might just skip the stalling act over Houston and just strike it right on for all we know. Too much uncertainty. Right now I think the best focus would be trying to figure out what it does after the Antilles. Does it go for Jamaica or beeline it for the Yucatan? Lots of uncertainty right now with even that forecast let alone worrying about a redux of Harvey.

[mpic]

Thank you, Xyls. I didn't have PTSD until Harvey and I know better in my analytical brain, but my emotional brain is driving me crazy lol.

[AnnularCane]

I've been here long enough to know that it's too early for a definite answer, but this is making me nervous with the changes in the climate. Are there any early indications that it will stall once it crosses the Yucatan and repeat anything like a Harvey causing massive rains for the Houston area from rain bands? Will there be anything in place to keep it really south?

It's too far out to know right now what it's plans are in the Gulf. Hell it might just skip the stalling act over Houston and just strike it right on for all we know. Too much uncertainty. Right now I think the best focus would be trying to figure out what it does after the Antilles. Does it go for Jamaica or beeline it for the Yucatan? Lots of uncertainty right now with even that forecast let alone worrying about a redux of Harvey.

What's this about a stalling act over Houston?

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1807396416244863021

[Charleswachal]

I've been here long enough to know that it's too early for a definite answer, but this is making me nervous with the changes in the climate. Are there any early indications that it will stall once it crosses the Yucatan and repeat anything like a Harvey causing massive rains for the Houston area from rain bands? Will there be anything in place to keep it really south?

It's too far out to know right now what it's plans are in the Gulf. Hell it might just skip the stalling act over Houston and just strike it right on for all we know. Too much uncertainty. Right now I think the best focus would be trying to figure out what it does after the Antilles. Does it go for Jamaica or beeline it for the Yucatan? Lots of uncertainty right now with even that forecast let alone worrying about a redux of Harvey.

What's this about a stalling act over Houston?

Can we just not! No stalling not allowed!

[mpic]

AnnularCane, I think they mean...take a chill pill

[Xyls]

I've been here long enough to know that it's too early for a definite answer, but this is making me nervous with the changes in the climate. Are there any early indications that it will stall once it crosses the Yucatan and repeat anything like a Harvey causing massive rains for the Houston area from rain bands? Will there be anything in place to keep it really south?

It's too far out to know right now what it's plans are in the Gulf. Hell it might just skip the stalling act over Houston and just strike it right on for all we know. Too much uncertainty. Right now I think the best focus would be trying to figure out what it does after the Antilles. Does it go for Jamaica or beeline it for the Yucatan? Lots of uncertainty right now with even that forecast let alone worrying about a redux of Harvey.

What's this about a stalling act over Houston?

There was some silly model runs yesterday or the day before more than 5 days out showing the system stall off the Texas coast lol. Not quite Harvey-ish but this is so far out at this point.

[IsabelaWeather]

It's too far out to know right now what it's plans are in the Gulf. Hell it might just skip the stalling act over Houston and just strike it right on for all we know. Too much uncertainty. Right now I think the best focus would be trying to figure out what it does after the Antilles. Does it go for Jamaica or beeline it for the Yucatan? Lots of uncertainty right now with even that forecast let alone worrying about a redux of Harvey.

What's this about a stalling act over Houston?

Can we just not! No stalling not allowed!

Can we get back on topic? Not only is this over 7 days out, no model has shown anything like this. Its pure fiction.

[weeniepatrol]

[Hurricane2022]

https://imgur.com/6bNqyBF

https://i.imgur.com/smS4afL.png

Just your average August EPAC major hurricane...

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Am i seeing a wobble or was that a shift to wnw , nw in that last frames of the longwave IR

If it doesn't start moving NW it will run into SA. Hard to tell if it's a wobble or a change, will have to look back in a couple of hours.

https://i.imgur.com/6LsCgXt.png

I've been following the motion for about an hour and it has been a consistent wnw

So closer to Barbados?

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/adrianlinares28/status/1807408950372900923

[AubreyStorm]

Am i seeing a wobble or was that a shift to wnw , nw in that last frames of the longwave IR

Yeah, I see that too. Looks more like a shift to the northwest imo, especially since it is expected to do that around nowish anyway.