ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

I thought stronger equals more northern path? At last that's what I've always learned when it comes to the tropics.

Yeah that’s usually what I observe

Generally true, but it does depend on the state of the atmosphere. A site like this https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time= will give you the steering winds for various strengths of storms

[Beef Stew]

The next recon mission departs for Beryl later this afternoon, correct?

[IcyTundra]

Question... What, if any impact, could 94L in the SW Gulf have on Beyrl? As far as strength or steering? Or are they simply too far away from each other?

Should have zero impact on Beryl as it will move inland to Mexico later tonight.

[Hurricane2022]

The next recon mission departs for Beryl later this afternoon, correct?

Location: 11.8N, 57.2W

Depart time: 30/2100Z (2 hours from now)

Entry time: 30/2300Z

Fix time: 30/2300Z,01/0530Z

Exit time: 01/0530Z

Altitude: SFC TO 15,000 FT

Mission Type: FIX

From CyclonicWx

[ConvergenceZone]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

I thought stronger equals more northern path? At last that's what I've always learned when it comes to the tropics.

That is true, a stronger storm will generally go north, however in this case there is a large area of high pressure to the north. There is some weakness NW of the storm but the timing will be off for it to move north.

Make sense. That's awesome news for the USA at least! Just as long as it doesn't go into any populated areas in South America. At this rate it looks like this may emerge in the Pacific and might end up being a Pacific Storm as well. Crazy.

[Beef Stew]

The next recon mission departs for Beryl later this afternoon, correct?

Location: 11.8N, 57.2W

Depart time: 30/2100Z (2 hours from now)

Entry time: 30/2300Z

Fix time: 30/2300Z,01/0530Z

Exit time: 01/0530Z

Altitude: SFC TO 15,000 FT

Mission Type: FIX

From CyclonicWx

Great- thanks.

[ConvergenceZone]

Question... What, if any impact, could 94L in the SW Gulf have on Beyrl? As far as strength or steering? Or are they simply too far away from each other?

Should have zero impact on Beryl as it will move inland to Mexico later tonight.

Yea I just watched a Tropical Met explaining on TV why this isn't a threat to the USA. It makes much more sense to me now the way he shows the locations of the high pressures etc.... Let's hope no populated inland areas of Mexico, Southern America get hit from this. After watching the tropics for a couple of decades, I'm still learning lol.

[IcyTundra]

I thought stronger equals more northern path? At last that's what I've always learned when it comes to the tropics.

That is true, a stronger storm will generally go north, however in this case there is a large area of high pressure to the north. There is some weakness NW of the storm but the timing will be off for it to move north.

Make sense. That's awesome news for the USA at least! Just as long as it doesn't go into any populated areas in South America. At this rate it looks like this may emerge in the Pacific and might end up being a Pacific Storm as well. Crazy.

I doubt it. Beryl will have to go due west without gaining any latitude for that to happen. Still looks like a mostly WNW movement to me.

[zzzh]

Well

[Charleswachal]

https://i.imgur.com/ozCEfSg.jpeg
Well

That certainly looks like its making a run for a cat 5

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/ozCEfSg.jpeg
Well

Quite a robust core, but look at the size of that outer band. It won’t take much for it to wrap around and trigger an EWRC.

[Beef Stew]

https://i.imgur.com/ozCEfSg.jpeg
Well

That's quite a robust eyewall.

[StormPyrate]

models seem off
Latest GFS kills Beryl and 96 off in an area that Normally storms strengthen.
What is causing that, sheer increase?

Keep this in the models thread please. Also, you said models then GFS.

I referenced the models, specifically GPS.
But my question was a fair discussion point no?

[TheBurn]

[Cargill]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

I'm in Barbados too and it's a beautiful thought that warnings can be lifted for us. But, unfortunately, it doesn't seem realistic.

They had the Final of the T20 World Cup Cricket just in time!

[abajan]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

It's certainly reassuring to know that as a meteorologist you're saying it seems to be basically moving due west, because to my layman's eyes it seems to have been moving WNW for the last couple of hours or so - not just a wobble.

[tolakram]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

It's certainly reassuring to know that as a meteorologist you're saying it seems to be basically moving due west, because to my layman's eyes it seems to have been moving WNW for the last couple of hours or so - not just a wobble.

Moving ever so slightly north of west

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What’s the latitude now, concerned Barbadian

[Xyls]

Now this is a big assumption but assuming Beryl's central pressure doesn't drop any further I believe Beryl would have the highest central pressure ever observed for a Cat 4 hurricane?

[Sciencerocks]