ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

The eye has shrunk quite a lot over the last few hours, and the CDO isn’t quite as smooth on visible as before. Dunno if it’s just a temporary structural quirk as it contracts and intensifies, or if it’s indicative of an EWRC on the horizon. The current structure of a small eye and gigantic outer band is quite conducive for one to occur at some point.

It's slowly undergoing an EWRC.
This first signal came about 13:00Z when an eyedrop from recon measured a drop in relative humidity at 850mb from 99% to less than 60%.
Physical indications usually shows up many hours later, like what you are seeing. One of the last indications will be a double wind maxima recoding from recon.

[DocJon]

Okay, that latest HWRF run is REALLY concerning!

[AtlanticWind]

Sam Lillo
@splillo
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It took #Beryl 42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, on June 30th.

This has been done 6 other times in Atlantic hurricane history.

And the EARLIEST date this was achieved before was ...

September 1.

SEPTEMBER

[TheBurn]

[tolakram]

ERC is concerning, the bigger the storm, even if weaker, the bigger the problem.

[HurricaneBrain]

[LadyBug72]

ERC is concerning, the bigger the storm, even if weaker, the bigger the problem.

Is the storm expected to grow in size if it makes it to the GOM?

[ConvergenceZone]

And for those new members to the storm2k board wondering why this board isn't very busy. Don't worry, there will more than likely be plenty of other storms that are USA threats this year that will have this board busy like crazy. All we need is one storm to have model support to hit the USA. In the mean-time enjoy the quiet board, because in a couple of months it will be so busy you won't be able to keep up with the threads...... Also hats off to the Mods. Nothing but total respect to them, especially during the busy months.

Plenty of model support for a U.S. landfall at this point.

Not from the more reliable models. Almost all are showing Mexico. Not that they can't shift, but this is what they are showing as of now.

[Stratton23]

Convergence Zone actually that is incorrect, the Euro is showing mexico, GFS, ICON, CMC and JMA all show texas, it can change but right now the euro is by itself in least in terms of the operational models

[aspen]

Recon is en route. If there is indeed an EWRC starting, we should know in a few hours.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi's new video
https://youtu.be/EonnioGJ5mo?si=hHVkrMtQOQBELpWZ

[ConvergenceZone]

Convergence Zone actually that is incorrect, the Euro is showing mexico, GFS, ICON, CMC and JMA all show texas, it can change but right now the euro is by itself in least in terms of the operational models

Well it must have changed then. Then again they are only expecting it to be a weak tropical storm by the time it emerges into the gulf, so if that's true, then the steering currents might be kind of weak to make it difficult to determine where it will go exactly, if anything is left of it that is.

[Sciencerocks]

[kevco]

Okay, that latest HWRF run is REALLY concerning!

Really concerning if it plays out like this

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1807528083987280236

[Teban54]

For the whole afternoon, Beryl kept firing hot towers from the E/SE eyewall, but they fail to wrap around, as shown below.

This seems to indicate some shear to me. However, earlier maps don't seem to show any notable shear. Any thoughts?

[NDG]

[AJC3]

Eye visible on the Barbados radar...

[Kazmit]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/i2CZHBb.jpeg

Jeez let’s hope it doesn’t sneak in a Wilma before the inevitable EWRC.

[StormChaser75]