ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

Speaking of preparations lockdown declared in Grenada as of 15 minutes ago in preparation for the hurricane. State of emergency to be declared for 7 days.

https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/ ... ckdown-7pm

[GCANE]

Vortex just came in.

No EWRC
Pinhole

[Odeseus]

Lots of posts about impending EWRC but I just don’t see the evidence for it. Yes, it is overdue for one. But I don’t see the physical signs yet.

I’m not sure she’s leveled out. Sun set headed towards DMAX and we have the highest tower we’ve seen all day fire up. First purple on IR for a while. Could see some strengthening of the eye wall overnight before finally starting to come down when the sun comes up in the morning.

Honestly, I was hoping DMIN during the day would slow her down. Doesn’t seem to have done much.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's that time of tracking a hurricane when the "EWRC is happening" gang gets heated against the "EWRC is not happening" gang.

[Hurricane2022]

It's that time of tracking a hurricane when the "EWRC is happening" gang gets heated against the "EWRC is not happening" gang.

[aspen]

Vortex just came in.

No EWRC
Pinhole

I’m surprised. That most recent microwave pass kinda looked like there’s potential for an outer band wrapping around.

[Xyls]

Since it appears The Grenadines looks like it is going to be the ground zero in this particular situation. I wanted to see what the storm of record was for the area as I was thinking it was probably Ivan, but it appears that Janet 1955 may actually be the worst one here on record as it killed 122 people on these islands in 1955 as a Category 3. So if a Cat 3 can be that destructive for these islands I'm quite concerned what we are going to see with Beryl as a 4 maybe even approaching a 5... because there is no comparable storm of such strength in this part of the Windward Islands it is really in a league of it's own.

[GCANE]

Lots of posts about impending EWRC but I just don’t see the evidence for it. Yes, it is overdue for one. But I don’t see the physical signs yet.

I’m not sure she’s leveled out. Sun set headed towards DMAX and we have the highest tower we’ve seen all day fire up. First purple on IR for a while. Could see some strengthening of the eye wall overnight before finally starting to come down when the sun comes up in the morning.

Honestly, I was hoping DMIN during the day would slow her down. Doesn’t seem to have done much.

Latest eyedrop confirms no impending EWRC

[GCANE]

Vortex just came in.

No EWRC
Pinhole

I’m surprised. That most recent microwave pass kinda looked like there’s potential for an outer band wrapping around.

Beryl is doing a lot of things that just aren't normal.

[weeniepatrol]

593
URNT12 KWBC 302307
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 30/22:20:31Z
B. 11.14 deg N 056.84 deg W
C. 700 MB 2796 m
D. 961 mb
E. 205 deg 30 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. NA
I. NA
J. 016 deg 107 kt
K. 298 deg 9 nm 22:18:16Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 252 deg 94 kt
O. 150 deg 4 nm 22:21:23Z
P. 10 C / 3056 m
Q. 23 C / 3040 m
R. 5 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0302A BERYL OB 05
MAX FL WIND 107 KT 298 / 9 NM 22:18:16Z

Closed 10 n mi.

Pinhole

[GCANE]

Chances of any type of EWRC before the islands is zero.
God be with those that take the impact of this beast.

[Dougiefresh]

Since it appears The Grenadines looks like it is going to be the ground zero in this particular situation. I wanted to see what the storm of record was for the area as I was thinking it was probably Ivan, but it appears that Janet 1955 may actually be the worst one here on record as it killed 122 people on these islands in 1955 as a Category 3. So if a Cat 3 can be that destructive for these islands I'm quite concerned what we are going to see with Beryl as a 4 maybe even approaching a 5... because there is no comparable storm of such strength in this part of the Windward Islands it is really in a league of it's own.

The housing stock has vastly improved from 1955. Most of the Caribbean island's houses are of cinder block construction.

[MGC]

Beryl's eye has been contracting all day. It was 16NM earlier today it is now down to 10NM. I don't see any evidence of an EWRC on IR, but one is still likely IMO. Latest sat loop shows a jog to the NW, might just be a wobble......MGC

[Xyls]

Since it appears The Grenadines looks like it is going to be the ground zero in this particular situation. I wanted to see what the storm of record was for the area as I was thinking it was probably Ivan, but it appears that Janet 1955 may actually be the worst one here on record as it killed 122 people on these islands in 1955 as a Category 3. So if a Cat 3 can be that destructive for these islands I'm quite concerned what we are going to see with Beryl as a 4 maybe even approaching a 5... because there is no comparable storm of such strength in this part of the Windward Islands it is really in a league of it's own.

The housing stock has vastly improved from 1955. Most of the Caribbean island's houses are of cinder block construction.

Hopefully so, because Ivan was a huge mess for them in 2004. And Beryl is going to be stronger than both Janet and Ivan.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Vortex just came in.

No EWRC
Pinhole

Not deepening any more though.

[arizona_sooner]

Dang if I was in Speyside, Tobago, I would be going somewhere else until this passes by. It is getting to be too close for comfort....

[Stratton23]

Flying through western eyewall i believe, pressure down to 954 MB

[GCANE]

Vortex just came in.

No EWRC
Pinhole

Not deepening any more though.

Big-ass eyewall tower firing off.

[Charleswachal]

954 mb pressure found. That is almost 6 mb in the last hour of a drop!

[Nimbus]

Chances of any type of EWRC before the islands is zero.
God be with those that take the impact of this beast.

They built the St Margaret the Mary Alacoque Catholic church on the hilltop of Carriacou and I'm not clairvoyant, so maybe pray?