ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

I'll not disagree with Levi... one of the best..

[sweetpea]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

I’m a lifelong, born and raised Floridian. If it were me in the current center within 48 hours of impact for what is expected to be a major hurricane, I would not be planning to stay in a prefab home. At the very least I would be making the plans and preparing to evacuate to a more sturdy structure.

I second this. I’m in a regular house and I’m getting out. At a minimum, go crash with friends or family for a night. Liberty County is forecast to get hurricane conditions currently and is still at risk of getting the core if landfall occurs around St. George Island/Apalachicola.

Watching Wakulla County EOC meeting, they are going to issue a mandatory county wide evacuation!

[chris_fit]

Popcorn Convection firing all around that poor LLC. She'll get there. She's coming together.

[Pipelines182]

I'll not disagree with Levi... one of the best..

I will, just because we have more information now than he did when he made his video. The LLC has resumed a NW movement, that's not an indicator of center(s) rotation. He is one of the best though, I remember talking with him on Wunderground back when he was still in High School.

[Frank P]

I'll not disagree with Levi... one of the best..

Looking at the latest vis sat loops, I may have to disagree with Levi, the naked LLC is now starting to slowly drift to the NW from the looks of the last couple of frames.. TBD

[GCANE]

Looks like the shear is breaking up

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[psyclone]

The whole cloud canopy is slowly filling in so it's getting there...but it's taking longer and sand is dumping through the hourglass

[ConvergenceZone]

The puzzling thing is that if you look at the forecast map, the NHC tracking map shows it will be 115 mph on 5:AM Thursday, but it also shows 115 mph 5 pm Thursday just before landfall, so that tells me that they aren't expecting any strengthening between 5:00 AM and 5:00 PM on Thursday , which seems quite different from what they were saying yesterday. I would figure it would be strengthening all the way up until landfall. They must be really expecting lots of shear or dry air after Thursday Morning to not expect any strengthening during that 12 hour time period before landfall.

[Frank P]

The whole cloud canopy is slowly filling in so it's getting there...but it's taking longer and sand is dumping through the hourglass

Helene's cloud envelope is truly massive in size.

[Powellrm]

I guess a lot will depend on how well and quickly Helene can close itself off, as well as how much dry air it ingests while passing the Yucatan.

[MetsIslesNoles]

The puzzling thing is that if you look at the forecast map, the NHC tracking map shows it will be 115 mph on 5:AM Thursday, but it also shows 115 mph 5 pm Thursday just before landfall, so that tells me that they aren't expecting any strengthening between 5:00 AM and 5:00 PM on Thursday , which seems quite different from what they were saying yesterday. I would figure it would be strengthening all the way up until landfall. They must be really expecting lots of shear or dry air after Thursday Morning to not expect any strengthening during that 12 hour time period before landfall.

Probably because of how fast it is moving

[Frank P]

actually, it looks more like a wnw motion has started now.

[Hurricane Mike]

Helene is building, but I guess I'm honestly not impressed yet. I want to see a definitive, well formed low level center and get a handle on any possible Yucatan interaction. It doesn't have as much time as others to organize, so the longer it takes, the better for Florida.

[InfernoFlameCat]

actually, it looks more like a wnw motion has started now.
https://i.ibb.co/qgzmrdS/goes16-vis-g16meso1-6.gif

That thing is massive.

[3090]

LLC is a displaced naked swirl to the WSW of the largest area of tstorms. Clearly visible on the visible satellite imagery.

[3090]

The whole cloud canopy is slowly filling in so it's getting there...but it's taking longer and sand is dumping through the hourglass

Helene's cloud envelope is truly massive in size.

One of the largest in recent memory. And that is why I think it is going to take a while to get itself together.

[MississippiWx]

The low level circulation visible to satellite is likely rotating around a larger less visible area of lower pressure. It's still in its formative stages and in the process of consolidating into a tighter area of low pressure. This is why the visible center has rotated southwest, east, north, and even northwest in a short period of time. This will likely continue until the center tightens up a bit which could take a little while considering the size of the tropical cyclone.

Once it does consolidate, it should be off to the races on intensity.

[ConvergenceZone]

The puzzling thing is that if you look at the forecast map, the NHC tracking map shows it will be 115 mph on 5:AM Thursday, but it also shows 115 mph 5 pm Thursday just before landfall, so that tells me that they aren't expecting any strengthening between 5:00 AM and 5:00 PM on Thursday , which seems quite different from what they were saying yesterday. I would figure it would be strengthening all the way up until landfall. They must be really expecting lots of shear or dry air after Thursday Morning to not expect any strengthening during that 12 hour time period before landfall.

Probably because of how fast it is moving

I guess that makes sense. I guess that also fits with my original thinking that it's going to be moving too fast to keep it from getting really strong. High End Cat 2 to Low End Cat 3 would sound right then.

[Jr0d]

The LLC looks like it’s starting to pivot to the ESE/ENE now. Maybe it was just revolving around the MLC.

Looking at visible on the NHC site, it's definitely not moving NW like it's supposed to. It appeared to have drifted SW and now it's kind of stationary or even more back east a little closer to the convection? I don't know if that's going to throw the track off. Is it going to be southerly now since it's northward movement is temporarily halted? Hopefully we'll get answers to that soon.

It usually better to look at the overall envelope to guess motion when there is a naked swirl, especially when that swirl appears to be rotating around say a MLC.

I am not seeing much of a West component with the overall convection but it is tough to determine as the convection envelope is expanding.

[Frank P]

per NHC latest update at 2pm center is at LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W which is the exact location of the naked LLC on satellite