ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

saved loop

[ColdFusion]

has this storm had an eyewall long enought to even have an eyewall replacement?

My thoughts exactly

Highly unlikely. EWRC are something more commonly found on a CAT3 or higher.

And I saw someone mention pinwall eye possibility - which is also unlikely as a true pinhole eye usually occurs on very intense storms. Cat 4,5.

[WaveBreaking]

New VHT on the north eyewall. It might getting close to takeoff.

[MarioProtVI]

Considerably tighter RMW this pass.

[aspen]

Pressure is steady, like I suspected and some of the hurricane models predicted. It’ll probably take a little longer for Milton to sort out its inner core and expel any remaining dry air.

[Zonacane]

Pressure is steady, like I suspected and some of the hurricane models predicted. It’ll probably take a little longer for Milton to sort out its inner core and expel any remaining dry air.

Roughly 979 is steady?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think in the next 2 hours we are going to see the eye clear out. It looks like that process is starting now

[Abdullah]

Eye drops Milton

Oct 6 2:43 PM, 986 mbar 13 kts 22.5°N 94.0°W
Oct 6 7:23 PM, 982 mbar 07 kts 22.5°N 93.4°W (-0.9 mbar/hour) (Moving east at 8 mph)

[ElectricStorm]

About a 3mb drop since last mission, definitely dropping but nothing crazy quite yet

[Zonacane]

Very tight pressure gradient and RMW, highest rain rates look like they're in a band just outside the developing eyewall, but they're close by—a classic signature of a developing hurricane.

[USTropics]

has this storm had an eyewall long enought to even have an eyewall replacement?

My thoughts exactly

Highly unlikely. EWRC are something more commonly found on a CAT3 or higher.

And I saw someone mention pinwall eye possibility - which is also unlikely as a true pinhole eye usually occurs on very intense storms. Cat 4,5.

This. Recon hasn't found a closed eyewall yet (last VDM was open NE hours ago), so we can't have an EWRC. EWRC is typically characterized by a moat feature, as the outer convective bands constrict and overtake the inner eyewall (not happening now). We also need SIGNIFICANT consolidation/constriction for a pinhole eye (again, ice skater pulling their arms in for a long period of time to get that inner-core spinning significantly).

[floridasun]

will cone go more south or norh at 11pm avd? who think will get hurr watch?

[CronkPSU]

will cone go more south or norh at 11pm avd? who think will get hurr watch?

Won’t change much based on all the new models, will just look smaller cause 6 more hours have passed

[TomballEd]

I don't spend time on the recon thread, I can find my own HDOBS, but it would seem to show Milton continues to strengthen.

[aspen]

Pressure is steady, like I suspected and some of the hurricane models predicted. It’ll probably take a little longer for Milton to sort out its inner core and expel any remaining dry air.

Roughly 979 is steady?

I thought it was in the lowest 980s last time, unless I’m misremembering?

[Zonacane]

Pressure is steady, like I suspected and some of the hurricane models predicted. It’ll probably take a little longer for Milton to sort out its inner core and expel any remaining dry air.

Roughly 979 is steady?

I thought it was in the lowest 980s last time, unless I’m misremembering?

The number the NHC went with was 988

[xironman]

Pressure is steady, like I suspected and some of the hurricane models predicted. It’ll probably take a little longer for Milton to sort out its inner core and expel any remaining dry air.

Roughly 979 is steady?

I thought it was in the lowest 980s last time, unless I’m misremembering?

986

[johngaltfla]

NHC 8 pm update:

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Although the wind field is lopsided, the strongest FL winds in each quadrant are now found in the immediate eyewall. Clear sign the inner core is coming together.

[Travorum]

VDM from the last pass. Open eyewall, 6nm smaller than before. FL max wind about the same.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 06/23:23:00Z
B. 22.53 deg N 093.45 deg W
C. 700 mb 2939 m
D. 982 mb
E. 090 deg 7 kt
F. OPEN NW-NE
G. C24
H. 59 kt
I. 277 deg 10 nm 23:20:00Z
J. 006 deg 52 kt
K. 287 deg 17 nm 23:18:00Z
L. 55 kt
M. 123 deg 12 nm 23:27:00Z
N. 225 deg 73 kt
O. 126 deg 16 nm 23:28:00Z
P. 11 C / 3050 m
Q. 17 C / 3043 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 0514A MILTON OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 126 / 16 NM 23:28:00Z
FL CNTR EMBEDDED ON EASTERN EDGE OF EYEWALL IN 3 NM POCKET.