ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DunedinDave]

Am I tripping or is it clearly wobbling/moving NE?

Seems to be the norm with storms coming from Cuba. I’ve learned that whatever the cone says when approaching Florida from the south to add an extra NE push to it. I’ve seen it all too much with Charley, Irma, Ian, Ophelia, Idalia, Elsa, etc.

[MJGarrison]

It looks NE to me too on radar. Is this just an artifact of what level of the atmosphere we are looking at? It’s not vertically stacked?


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[Noles2016]

It looks NE to me too on radar. Is this just an artifact of what level of the atmosphere we are looking at? It’s not vertically stacked?


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Anxious to see what recon says!

[ronjon]

Getting hammered in Hernando county with first nasty band. Picked up 1.5 inches in 30 mins. Radar is clearly showing N-NE movement. If it continues Debby may come ashore closer to Cedar Key.

[aspen]

Looking at the OmegaRadar she sure looks to be wobbling off to the NE to me

Definitely appears to be moving NE on radar by a decent distance!

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GMJmSBC/IMG-1977.jpg [/url]

Pretty far off the last position, assuming that app is precisely accurate. Perhaps there was another center reformation? Or maybe this is a red herring eyewall?

[Poonwalker]

Torrential rain right now with gusts. The thickest band yet. Pool overflowed about an hour ago. Couple months ago we were begging for rain after a 2-3 month drought. Welcome to Florida lol

[DunedinDave]

Getting hammered in Hernando county with first nasty band. Picked up 1.5 inches in 30 mins. Radar is clearly showing N-NE movement. If it continues Debby may come ashore closer to Cedar Key.

I think Cedar Key landfall very possible. It’s funny the future cast radar on Weather Channel actually shows the center moving more easterly than NHC forecast. Maybe they’re taking into account that traditional right easterly shove that always happens in the Eastern GOM.

[FLLurker32]

I haven’t paid much attn today. Received a message from my teen who’s a storm enthusiast too, “uhhhh mom, why does this look like it’s way NE of what the NHC shows?!”

Oh boy, here we go.

[caneman]

Getting hammered in Hernando county with first nasty band. Picked up 1.5 inches in 30 mins. Radar is clearly showing N-NE movement. If it continues Debby may come ashore closer to Cedar Key.

That's what I'm thinking and much closer path to Pinellas beaches. They always seem to go right when coming up from the SE Gulf.

[IcyTundra]

Radar can be misleading for disorganized systems like Debby. Impacts will be felt well away from the center so I wouldn't focus too much on the exact track.

[NDG]

Based on this morning's recon fix before 8 AM and the current location based on radar, I estimate it to have moved during the past 9 hours and average of 9.5 mph
This is taking into consideration its reformation which took a big jump.
Comparing its first fix by the recon after reformation at 10:30 AM to the current location based on radar it is moving at ~5.5 mph during the past 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

In Clearwater.

 https://x.com/NStewWX/status/1820198596634976717

[Hurrilurker]

On visible sat, it looks like it might have finally closed off the dry air from the core. Plus new convection blowing up over the center.

[caneman]

In Clearwater.

 https://x.com/NStewWX/status/1820198596634976717

Feeling it and living it. Just a couple miles south on Indian Rocks beach

[NDG]

I guess Debby will be taking these cyclonic loops as it heads north towards the Big Bend area of FL. What I am concerned about is that we usually see them slow down and change of course ahead of schedule as the steering collapses as I have family that live right on the coast of Pasco County, Zone A. Will be a long 18-24 hrs ahead.

https://i.imgur.com/pref3mQ.gif

i live in pasco, its drizzling

The calm before the storm, last time I looked at the Euro it showed close to 10" of rain in coast Pasco County, with rain squalls passing through at least tomorrow night.

[caneman]

I guess Debby will be taking these cyclonic loops as it heads north towards the Big Bend area of FL. What I am concerned about is that we usually see them slow down and change of course ahead of schedule as the steering collapses as I have family that live right on the coast of Pasco County, Zone A. Will be a long 18-24 hrs ahead.

https://i.imgur.com/pref3mQ.gif

i live in pasco, its drizzling

The calm before the storm, last time I looked at the Euro it showed close to 10" of rain in coast Pasco County, with rain squalls passing through at least tomorrow night.

Just South in Pinellas. Reminds me of the Debby from 10 or so years ago in terms of rainfall

[MetroMike]

12,000 customers without power now in Pinellas County on the coast.

[LandoWill]

Land o lakes update. Still nothing but a drizzle.

[Stormlover70]

Dry air is keeping her in check

[tiger_deF]

I'm extremely interested in what the second phase of Debby's life will look like. The models have been showing several scenarios.

1 - Debby meanders over FL, GA, and the SE US, slowly spinning down to nothing and dumping a huge amount of rain. This seems like the most likely option, though there is lots of model disagreement even at this stage. Supported by the OP GFS.
2- Debby goes offshore off the SE US, strengthens some, and makes secondary landfall in GA/SC/NC, heading West. Supported by the OP Euro.
3- Debby goes offshore the SE US, strengthens, makes landfall in SC/NC, and continues heading N/NE, bringing heavy rain and wind to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Supported by the ICON.
4- Debby goes offshore the SE US, strengthens, makes a loop and heads SW/W back into the gulf and towards the western Gulf. Supported? by the HWRF.

I'm most interested if Debby will have a secondary peak that is stronger than it's primary peak.