ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stratton23]

whats an eyewall meld? Ive never heard of that before

[Hurricane Mike]

Beryl is likely a Cat 3 but unfortunately the wind field may expand.

[aspen]

whats an eyewall meld? Ive never heard of that before

It’s more of an informal term AFAIK. Basically it’s an EWRC where the two eyewalls sort of merge instead of the inner eyewall collapsing and then the new one clearing out. Irma had at least one eyewall meld during its insane Cat 5 streak.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TreyceJonesWX/status/1807598437992398856

[Weatherwatcher2018]

How slow is beryl now

[Beef Stew]

An EWRC right now may end up being quite inopportune in terms of timing- should it complete in the next 6-8 hours, it would still leave some time for re-strengthening prior to landfall tomorrow, and the windfield would be significantly expanded.

[Sciencerocks]

[RT23]

Looks like another NW jog......

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I've said it before, but Beryl and Emily (2005) are remarkable analogs to one another as far as time-of-year (although Emily was obviously a few weeks later) and where they entered the Caribbean. Big difference is Beryl is quite a lot more intense entering the Caribbean than Emily; but Emily was a powerhouse of its own throughout its Caribbean adventure.

My guess is Beryl will follow the same path into the GOMEX, but we'll see.

[CrazyC83]

An EWRC right now may end up being quite inopportune in terms of timing- should it complete in the next 6-8 hours, it would still leave some time for re-strengthening prior to landfall tomorrow, and the windfield would be significantly expanded.

It would also increase the number of areas seeing hurricane force winds. For Barbados and St. Vincent especially, an EWRC would be bad news.

[Teban54]

An EWRC right now may end up being quite inopportune in terms of timing- should it complete in the next 6-8 hours, it would still leave some time for re-strengthening prior to landfall tomorrow, and the windfield would be significantly expanded.

As I just said in the models thread, both 18z HAFS models accurately showed the EWRC, and both show it to be quick enough for additional strengthening to a 947 mb mid C4 or C5 tomorrow morning.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

I'm a bit surprised they haven't put watches or warnings out for the ABC islands. Any expansion could get them in play as well?

[Weatherwatcher2018]

I really don’t know what to expect tonight and tomorrow in Barbados and it’s making me anxious

[Teban54]

Latest NE eyewall pass has... Drumroll... 86 kt FL, 80 kt SFMR.

Extrapolate pressure 960.5 mb.

[CrazyC83]

Latest NE eyewall pass has... Drumroll... 86 kt FL, 80 kt SFMR.

Extrapolate pressure 960.5 mb.

NW eyewall would be the right-front quadrant with the storm moving basically due west. That said, I'd have gone 105 kt for the intensity.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I really don’t know what to expect tonight and tomorrow in Barbados and it’s making me anxious

The core should pass well south of Barbados. The NHC are showing a very small swathe of hurricane force winds, and even if the wind field expands considerably, you should be far enough north. Radar is also showing the bulk of precipitation on the south side of the storm, it's that convection that helps mix the strong winds down to the surface. That being said be on your guard, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m going to bed. Going to check back in about 6 hours

[Keldeo1997]

EWRC almost done

[cheezyWXguy]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRYHcfTboAAGvTA?format=png&name=small

EWRC almost done

Yes that radar presentation is interesting. Very narrow moat between the inner and outer eyewalls means dry air intrusions are probably less likely to prolong the erc. We could well wake up to a strengthening storm again