SPAC: 05F - Tropical Depression - Remnants

[cycloneye]

SH, 94, 2024020206, , BEST, 0, 211S, 1607E, 25, 1002, SD

[cycloneye]

Tropical Low 06U
Increasing chance of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea from mid-next week.
A weak sub-tropical low 06U is moving northeast in the eastern Coral Sea outside the Australian region (160E).
The likelihood for 06U to develop into a tropical cyclone increases to Low (10-15%) from Wednesday and to Moderate (25-35%) from Thursday.
The most likely scenario is that 06U begins to move to the west across the Coral Sea next week towards the north Queensland Coast.
The potential for an impact to t

[cycloneye]

Tropical Low 06U
Chance of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later in the week.
A weak low (06U) is located northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, outside of the Australian region (160E). The low is currently slow moving.
06U may adopt a westwards track during the next 24 hours and re-enter the Australian region on Monday or Tuesday, while remaining weak.
Late in the week, conditions become more favourable for tropical cyclone development and 06U may strengthen in the Coral Sea.
By next weekend, the system may turn back to the east. There is considerable uncertainty over how far west into the Australian region it may move before this happens.
A direct impact on the Queensland coast is unlikely.

[cycloneye]

Increasing chance of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea later in the week. No threat of direct impact to the Queensland coast.
A weak low (06U) is located northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, near the eastern boundary of the Australian region (160E).
06U is likely to move to the northwest over the Coral Sea in the next few days but remaining weak, then move to the east from Thursday and be east of the Australian region by the weekend.
From Thursday conditions are more favourable for development of a broad system with strong winds extending a considerable distance both north and south of the centre. The likelihood of TC formation increases but more than likely this occurs east of the Australian region.
There is no threat of a direct impact on the Queensland coast.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.6S
160.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA .
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT
DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR FLARING
CONVECTION ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AROUND TAU 96). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Low 06U
Increasing chance of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea later in the week. No threat of direct impact to the Queensland coast.
A weak low (06U) remains slow moving northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, near the eastern boundary of the Australian region (160E).
06U is likely to move to the northwest over the Coral Sea on Wednesday then move to the east and be east of the Australian region by late Thursday or Friday.
Conditions only gradually become more favourable for development and while it is possible the system remains a broad low, it is also possible for a period of intensification. Hence, the likelihood of TC formation increases to Moderate from Thursday night and High on Friday night, east of the Australian region.
There is no threat of a direct impact on the Queensland coast.

[cycloneye]

High chance of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea.
Tropical low (06U) remains slow moving northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, near the eastern boundary of the Australian region (160E).
06U is likely to move to further north through the eastern Coral Sea today, then move to the east of the Australian region by late Thursday or Friday.
Conditions begin to become more favourable for development from Thursday, where the chance of tropical cyclone development increases to Moderate (30%) on Thursday morning up to High (70%) over the weekend, with formation expected east of the Australian region.
There is no threat of a direct impact on the Queensland coast.

[cycloneye]

High chance of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea.
Tropical low (06U) remains slow moving northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, near the eastern boundary of the Australian region (160E).
06U is likely to move to the east of the Australian region early on Thursday morning.
Conditions become more favourable for development during Thursday, where the chance of tropical cyclone increases to Moderate (45%) Thursday evening and up to High (65%) on Friday, with formation expected east of the Australian region.
There is no threat of a direct impact on the Queensland coast.
From the weekend 06U is highly likely to be well east of the Australian region and is unlikely to return.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 080220 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 162.4E
AT 080000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. .

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND
MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 163.1E
AT 080600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES
JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT
AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 164.6E
AT 081800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS
BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON THE SATELITE
IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET
AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 16.9S 165.6E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 17.5S 167.0E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.0S 168.8E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.4S 170.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 166.0E
AT 091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN A mODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS
REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 MET AGREEING AND
PT IS 2.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS YIELDS T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH
INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 167.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 62 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 12P UNDERGOING RAPID EXPANSION OF CORE CONVECTION
TYPICAL OF CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SUDDEN
SPREADING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE EIR IMAGERY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CCC. A 091404Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AS SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPS INTO THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT VILA ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
WITH A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE YET BROAD OUTFLOW, BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, OFFSET BY THE VWS (15-20 KNOTS). DUE TO THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU,
PERSISTENT VWS, AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF THE AVAILABLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ON VANUATU.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 169.5E
AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST ABOUT 09
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUPPOSED LLCC. LLCC
REMAINS ELONGATED. LLCC LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS DUE TO DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST BY THE NER LOCATED TO
THE NORTH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT 2.5 WITH PT AND
MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 173.2E
AT 101800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUPPOSED LLCC. LLCC
REMAINS ELONGATED AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY WHLIST MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3
WRAP WITH
DT 2.0 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS
T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.3S 176.1E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.7S 178.4E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 20.0S 179.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 20.1S 178.6W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ISSUE FOR DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 05F.