SIO: NEVILLE - Remnants

[Subtrop]

91S INVEST 240303 0600 8.7S 92.2E SHEM 15 1009

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S
93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) AND A 072353Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
CENTRALIZED FLARING CONVECTION EXTENDING OUTWARDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS)
VWS, WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:52 pm WST on Saturday 9 March 2024

A Tropical Low was located at 6:30 pm CCT (8:00 pm AWST) near 12.1S 95.6E,
that is 135 km west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 1120 km west of Christmas
Island and moving east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.
The low will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to Cocos (Keeling)
Islands, and then possibly a period of strong to gale force winds during Sunday.

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:03 pm WST on Sunday 10 March 2024

A Tropical Low was located at 12:30 pm CCT (2:00 pm AWST) near 12.4S 97.1E,
that is 40 km southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and 960 km west southwest of
Christmas Island and moving east at 12 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 08U, located close to the south of Cocos (Keeling) Islands is
moving to the east. It is expected to move east southeast from tomorrow. The
low is not likely to develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday but has an
increasing chance of doing so during the week as it moves towards the
eastsoutheast.

The monsoon flow associated with the low will bring increasing showers, heavy
rainfall, and thunderstorms to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands from tonight. A
period of strong to gale force winds are possible tonight and early Monday.
Winds are expected to begin easing during Monday as the low moves further away
to the southeast.

Winds may increase about the Christmas Island from late Monday as the monsoon
strengthens over the area. Gales are not expected over Christmas Island as 08U
is likely to pass well to the south of the island.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E, 506 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
100731Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS
STARTING TO BUILD NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BUILD MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 20-22 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP
NEAR 1000 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[wxman57]

BoM has identified this as a "Tropical Low", basically a depression with wind to 40 kts gusting 55 kts. They do not upgrade to a TC unless those 34kt winds go more than half way around the center. Overnight ASCAT indicates a large area of 35-40 kt winds north of the center but not in the southern half.

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:41 pm WST on Monday 11 March 2024

A Tropical Low was located at 7:00 pm CXT (8:00 pm AWST) near 11.9S 102.5E,
that is 385 km west southwest of Christmas Island and moving east at 17
kilometres per hour.

Tropical low 08U is located to the southwest of Christmas Island and is moving
east. It will pass to the south of Christmas Island during Tuesday morning. 08U
will continue moving closer to the Western Australian mainland and is expected
to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week. It will most likely
remain offshore but could impact the Pilbara coast on the weekend.

Winds are likely to increase at Christmas Island tonight and into Tuesday.
Although 08U is likely to pass well to the south of the island, there is a
chance that winds may reach gale force at times on Tuesday morning and
afternoon. Conditions should then ease later Tuesday as 08U moves away to the
southeast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0841 UTC 12/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 106.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (119 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2/0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 12/1200: 13.9S 107.4E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 997
+12: 12/1800: 14.3S 108.8E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 996
+18: 13/0000: 14.7S 110.0E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 995
+24: 13/0600: 15.1S 111.1E: 075 (135): 040 (075): 995
+36: 13/1800: 15.8S 112.9E: 100 (180): 040 (075): 995
+48: 14/0600: 16.6S 113.9E: 130 (240): 040 (075): 992
+60: 14/1800: 17.4S 114.2E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 992
+72: 15/0600: 18.2S 114.0E: 175 (320): 045 (085): 990
+96: 16/0600: 19.4S 113.0E: 240 (440): 055 (100): 982
+120: 17/0600: 20.6S 111.9E: 320 (580): 060 (110): 980
REMARKS:
Deep convection remains confined well to the northwest of an exposed low level
circulation centre of Tropical Low 08U.

Position is based on animated VIS imagery, persistence and recent microwave
passes. Confidence in the analysis position is good.

Intensity is maintained at 40 knots based on earlier scatterometry passes,
though gales remain restricted to the northern quadrant. Dvorak analysis is
based on MET=1.0 on a S 24h trend. DT is inclusive as the LLCC is more than
90nm from deepest convection. CI is held at 2.0.

08U is a shallow system that continues to track east with the low-level monsoon
flow and is limited by 22kt easterly shear. Environmental conditions are
otherwise favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track, decent monsoon flow to the
north and reasonable upper level divergence.

08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this
happens, the influence of the mid-level ridge over Australia would then
increase and 08U is expected to turn towards the south. Gales are likely to
become more confined to the system centre and are forecast to extend into the
southern quadrants of 08U from Thursday. It is forecast to intensify into the
weekend as it tracks south under the influence of the ridge.

The most likely track scenario keeps 08U off the coast of Western Australian as
it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is however a large
spread in the guidance in the longer term. A small number of guidance keeps the
system as a shallow low and track it further east, before developing it. If
this happens, then 08U is likely to be closer to the coast as it turns towards
the southwest over the weekend. In any case, there could be possible impacts
along the Pilbara coast due to its proximity to the coast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 13/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 112.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (117 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 13/1800: 15.5S 112.7E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994
+12: 14/0000: 15.6S 113.6E: 065 (120): 035 (065): 994
+18: 14/0600: 15.9S 114.5E: 075 (145): 035 (065): 994
+24: 14/1200: 16.2S 115.3E: 090 (165): 035 (065): 994
+36: 15/0000: 16.8S 116.1E: 115 (215): 035 (065): 993
+48: 15/1200: 17.4S 116.0E: 130 (245): 035 (065): 993
+60: 16/0000: 17.6S 115.3E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 992
+72: 16/1200: 17.9S 114.7E: 165 (305): 040 (075): 990
+96: 17/1200: 18.6S 114.0E: 215 (395): 055 (100): 980
+120: 18/1200: 20.1S 113.0E: 285 (530): 060 (110): 978
REMARKS:
Tropical low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind
shear. Confidence in the centre position is fair based on persistence and
animated EIR imagery.

Dvorak analysis: centre remains exposed. Unable to apply any particular pattern
confidently. MET of 1.5 based on a W- trend, PAT adjusted 1.0. FT of 1.0, CI
held at 1.5. Objective guidance: ADT 32kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 28kt, DMINT 27kt
(old), SATCON 36kt (old) (1-min average). Recent scatterometry indicates about
30 knots to the north, but re-strengthening to gales is the short term in the
strong monsoonal flow to the north is likely. Gales analysed and forecast to
persist in the northern quadrants.

08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with
development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at
approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat
favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north.
Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper
level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow.

08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this
happens, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will increase and slow
the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west
will steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep
layer wind shear should allow the system to develop and become more symmetric
later in the week. It is forecast to intensify over the weekend and early next
week as it tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge.

The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the coast as it curves
towards the southwest over the weekend. There is, however, a large spread in
the guidance. There is the possibility of it moving further east before turning
to the south then southwest, which would see it move closer to or across the
west Pilbara coast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0659 UTC 14/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 114.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (111 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 14/1200: 16.2S 115.4E: 045 (080): 035 (065): 996
+12: 14/1800: 16.5S 115.9E: 060 (110): 035 (065): 995
+18: 15/0000: 16.8S 116.1E: 075 (135): 035 (065): 995
+24: 15/0600: 17.0S 116.2E: 080 (150): 035 (065): 995
+36: 15/1800: 17.5S 116.3E: 095 (180): 035 (065): 995
+48: 16/0600: 17.8S 115.8E: 115 (215): 035 (065): 992
+60: 16/1800: 18.0S 115.1E: 135 (250): 040 (075): 989
+72: 17/0600: 18.2S 114.6E: 160 (295): 045 (085): 982
+96: 18/0600: 19.2S 113.4E: 210 (390): 060 (110): 977
+120: 19/0600: 20.9S 112.3E: 275 (510): 045 (085): 984
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 08U continues under the influence of strong deep layer easterly
wind shear. The low level circulation is exposed and at times there are
multiple centres. Convection has been displaced to the west of the LLCC, waxing
and waning with the diurnal cycle; with some weakening during the last 6 hrs as
the centre has moved further east from the deepest convection. Confidence in
the centre position is fair based on animated Vis imagery, though our analysis
is weighted just to the west of the visible centre due to our multiple centres.

Dvorak analysis: Shear pattern gives DT 1.5 with the estimated centre displaced
1.25 degrees from the deep convection. MET is 1.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend,
and PT agrees. FT of 1.5 based on MET/PAT, with CI held above at 2.0. Objective
guidance: ADT 34kn, AiDT 35kn, DPRINT 27kn, DMIT 30kn and SATCON 45kn (all
1-min average). ASCAT at 0110 UTC this morning had gales in northern quadrants
and supportes continuing with an intensity (10-min mean) of 35kn.

08U is currently tracking east-southeast with the low-level monsoon flow, with
development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at
approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat
favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north.
Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper
level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow.

From Friday, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will begin to slow
the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west
will begin to steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in
deep layer wind shear should allow the system to begin to develop, and tropical
cyclone strength is currently forecast from Sunday. Further intensification is
possible as 08U tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the
ridge over the weekend and early next week. Additionally, there is a slight
chance for the system to become severe.

The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the Western Australian
coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend and into next week.
There is, however, a large spread in the guidance due to different relative
strengths of modelled steering influences, with some favouring a track further
east before turning, and/or more southerly movement. An approach close to or
across the western Pilbara coast early next week therefore remains possible.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1768454931294421228

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1343 UTC 15/03/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 115.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (238 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 15/1800: 17.7S 115.0E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 996
+12: 16/0000: 17.7S 114.7E: 070 (130): 030 (055): 996
+18: 16/0600: 17.8S 114.5E: 070 (135): 030 (055): 996
+24: 16/1200: 17.8S 114.2E: 075 (140): 030 (055): 996
+36: 17/0000: 17.7S 113.5E: 095 (180): 035 (065): 994
+48: 17/1200: 17.9S 113.2E: 115 (215): 040 (075): 992
+60: 18/0000: 18.2S 112.7E: 140 (260): 045 (085): 986
+72: 18/1200: 18.5S 112.4E: 160 (295): 050 (095): 982
+96: 19/1200: 18.5S 111.1E: 205 (380): 050 (095): 983
+120: 20/1200: 18.2S 108.7E: 290 (540): 040 (075): 991
REMARKS:
The low level centre is obscured by high level cloud and is insufficiently
defined in microwave to give confidence in the position. IR imagery suggests
moderate to high shear continues in accordance with the CIMSS shear analyses

Intensity is set at 30 knots. Dvorak analysis: Shear pattern gives DT 2.0 to
2.5. (given the uncertain low level position). MET is 2.5 on a 24 hour D trend.
PAT is adjusted to 2.0. FT of 2.0 based on MET. Recent objective guidance: ADT
33kn and AiDT 32kn (1100 UTC, both 1-min average).

08U has become slow moving to the southwest. Development of the system has
slightly improved despite remaining under around 20 knots of shear. There has
been a lot of lightning in the limited deep convection, which may indicate the
system is ingesting some dry air. Environmental conditions are otherwise
somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track. Shear is expected to ease and
become more northerly from later Saturday or Sunday as the system moves south.
Upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow, with
some indications in imagery and AMVs that this is already happening.

The reduction in deep layer wind shear may allow the system to begin to develop
from later Saturday or Sunday, and tropical cyclone strength is currently
forecast from Monday. Further intensification is possible as 08U tracks west or
southwest under the influence of the ridge over the weekend and early next
week. There is only a slight chance for the system to become severe (hurricane
force), if it tracks north of west early next week.

The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the Western Australian
coast as it curves towards the southwest tonight and continues to move west or
southwest during the weekend. Recent guidance has the system remaining slow
moving well off the Pilbara coast before taking a more west or southwest track
away from Western Australia. A slight, and slowly decreasing risk of the system
having a more southerly movement over the weekend, in which case 08U may move
close to or across the western Pilbara coast early next week.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:41 am WST on Saturday 16 March 2024

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 17.4S 114.7E,
that is 435 km north northwest of Karratha and 510 km north of Exmouth, and
slow moving.

Tropical Low 08U is located well to the north of the Pilbara coast and is
slowly moving west. It is expected to track slowly west or southwest over the
weekend, parallel to the Pilbara coast. It is not expected to develop rapidly
but could reach tropical cyclone strength Tuesday.

Even though the centre of Tropical Low 08U is highly likely to remain offshore,
there is a small but decreasing chance it could remain slow moving in the short
term then move further south on Monday. If this happens, then there could be
peripheral impacts along the Pilbara coast during Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Sunday 17 March 2024

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 17.3S 112.9E,
that is 570 km northwest of Karratha and 530 km north northwest of Exmouth, and
moving west at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 08U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and
moving west. It is forecast to remain weak from Sunday through to Tuesday.

From Wednesday it is expected to take a more defined and faster track to the
west over the Indian Ocean and have an increasing chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1769786963110899735

[wxman57]

Curious that JTWC stopped issuing advisories right as it finally began to intensify. Scatterometer pass yesterday had 35 kt winds SW of the center.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:54 pm WST on Tuesday 19 March 2024

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 17.8S 111.4E,
that is 540 km north northwest of Exmouth and 660 km west northwest of
Karratha, and moving west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 08U is located well northwest of the Pilbara coast and is moving
generally west. It is expected to continue to move steadily west during
Wednesday across the Indian Ocean where it has an increasing chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Low 08U is not expected to impact the Pilbara coast.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Neville has developed well northwest of the Pilbara coast and
is moving west, further away from the mainland. It is expected to continue to
move steadily west across the southern Indian Ocean and is likely to intensify
further in the next day or two.

By the weekend Neville is forecast to be moving over cooler waters and is
expected to begin to weaken as it moves to the south and southeast over open
waters.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1770439034625802432