SPAC: PITA - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

98P INVEST 250107 1200 16.0S 171.4E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.3S
172.8W AT 070000UTC AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS.
TD03F IS LIKELY TO EXIT RSMC NADI'S AOR LATER ON THURSDAY.

https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=5dayoutlook

[cycloneye]

Tropical Disturbance 03F centre [999hPa] was analysed near 23.3S 166.7W at 080000UTC and
is moving east-southeast at 20 knots.
TD03F is expected to lie outside RSMC Nadi's AOR from tomorrow.
The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone is VERY LOW.
A low pressure system is expected to develop and lie just to the east of Fiji from Friday

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1005 HPA] SYSTEM WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
177.9E AT 082100UTC. THE SYSTEM IS ELONGATED ALONG SPCZ IN A NARROW
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM HAS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS TODAY
AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION LIKELY IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[StormWeather]

Why do we have 03F and 04F here? Aren’t they two different systems?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1003HPA] SYSTEM WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.1S
178.0W AT 090800UTC.

THE SYSTEM IS ELONGATED ALONG SPCZ IN A NARROW LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM HAS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OUTFLOW.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP FURTHER.

GLOBAL MODELS IS CONSISTENTLY MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

[StormWeather]

ABPW10 PGTW 100000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100000Z-100600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.7S
175.5W, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
ALOFT. THE MAIN HINDRANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 98P
AND ITS INABILITY TO CONSOLIDATE MOVING FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Subtrop]

GALE WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 100657 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1 SOUTH 173.7
WEST AT 100600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.1S 173.7W at 100600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
101800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.4S 170.0W AT 101800 UTC
AND NEAR 20.5S 166.1W AT 110600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 017.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 169.7W AT
101800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS.

MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TC WITH
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW TO THE EAST.
ORGANISATION FAIR. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP YEILDS A DT OF 2.5, DEVELOPING
TREND WHICH GIVES A MET OF 2.5. PT GIVES 3.0. FT BASED ON PT, THUS
YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

TCFA.

WTPS21 PGTW 101730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 98P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2S 172.6W TO 21.9S 159.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 172.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 175.5W
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 172.2W, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
NIUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. A 100926Z
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLIES ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ESTABLISHING
ITSELF OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM EXISTS UNDER A NARROW ALLEY OF LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-15KTS)
WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-29
DEGREES AND WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES 22S LATITUDE,
WHICH IS WHERE THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP AND NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS A VERTICALLY
STACKED CIRCULATION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 165.0W AT
110600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS.

MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CONVECTION REMAINS PRESISTENT IN THE EASTERN FLANK OF PITA WITH
PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC. PRIMARY BANDS CONTINUE TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANISATION FAIR. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP YEILDS DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 122300 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE PITA [TD04F] CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.2S 154.4W AT 122100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. TD04F SLOW MOVING.

THE SYSTEM CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO CONVECTION EVIDENT. TD04F
LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SYSTEM SLOW MOVING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR TD04F.