ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Craters]

It sure is fun and interesting to watch such a huge, majestic storm like Erin, knowing that it isn't going to wipe somebody or someplace off the map...

[CrazyC83]

It sure is fun and interesting to watch such a huge, majestic storm like Erin, knowing that it isn't going to wipe somebody or someplace off the map...

Erin will get another chance in 2031...

[mitchell]

Erin is definitely tracking east of the forecast. I doubt there will be any TS wind on the OBX. Hatteras is currently NE at 10 kts gusting 22 kts. Plane found 70-75 kts in SW quadrant.

Agree - doing a survey this evening of all the bouys offshore OBX and land stations the highest sustained wind speed I could find was 31 knots, and that was over water. The winds don't seem to be increasing over the past few hours either.

[Sciencerocks]

[TheEuropean]

From Last advisory at 2 am EDT:

A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.

[hiflyer]

Guess it is fitting that the current end of run of the Euro shows Erin dissolving into Ireland.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Looks like recon is finding wind of 65-70 kts in the NE quadrant. As its wind field expands, the pressure gradient is lower, reducing the wind speed. There were some gusts to 34-39 kts across the Outer banks overnight, but nothing close to sustained TS winds. Erin turned northeast last evening, earlier than predicted.

[LarryWx]

Looks like recon is finding wind of 65-70 kts in the NE quadrant. As its wind field expands, the pressure gradient is lower, reducing the wind speed. There were some gusts to 34-39 kts across the Outer banks overnight, but nothing close to sustained TS winds. Erin turned northeast last evening, earlier than predicted.

wxman57,
I’m confused. What you said that I bolded doesn’t appear to me to agree with the following:

1. From 2AM NHC advisory:
“A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.”

2. From 5AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).”

3. From 8AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in
Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”

[wxman57]

Looks like recon is finding wind of 65-70 kts in the NE quadrant. As its wind field expands, the pressure gradient is lower, reducing the wind speed. There were some gusts to 34-39 kts across the Outer banks overnight, but nothing close to sustained TS winds. Erin turned northeast last evening, earlier than predicted.

wxman57,
I’m confused. What you said that I bolded doesn’t appear to me to agree with the following:

1. From 2AM NHC advisory:
“A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.”

2. From 5AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).”

3. From 8AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in
Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”

I was looking at the official NWS KHSE station METARs. Winds were lower than predicted yesterday morning. Coastal buoys/stations that are not over land would have seen stronger wind.

[72Packer]

Highway NC 12 (on the beach) north of Corolla, NC this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1FKtBaPaup/

[Sciencerocks]

[ljmac75]

Everyone keeps mentioning it with Erin, is SFMR data being used by the NHC this season or not?

[USTropics]

Everyone keeps mentioning it with Erin, is SFMR data being used by the NHC this season or not?

There is still a calibration issue with the instrument in high winds (past 80 mph I believe), and it's not being used operationally to my understanding. A grad student here at FSU has been working with the NOAA on creating an algorithm to improve the calibration issue (otherwise instruments on the planes will need to be manually recalibrated at some point). The SFMR data is still available though (just not operationally used at the NHC).

[TallyTracker]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4628/lRdzTq.gif

Erin looks to be in the early stages of extratropical transition now. I recall seeing the front forecast to be getting close to storm by today. Probably only has 24-36 hours left as a tropical cyclone.

[Woofde]

Everyone keeps mentioning it with Erin, is SFMR data being used by the NHC this season or not?

It's hard to find updated information, but the most recent information (an NHC public information statement) suggests they are still not using it due to calibration and data validity issues. It struggles with measurements over shallow water and storms with relatively high or low wind speeds. It can be used as a part of the picture, but the data must be taken with a grain of salt.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/pns/pnsnhc.msg

[HurricaneRyan]

She's had a good run.

[bob rulz]

I've been too busy to track storms much this year, but this is one of those nearly ideal storms that has had little impact on land but puts on a show for the satellites. Very fun storm to track.

[TomballEd]

What is current ACE for Erin.

[Woofde]

What is current ACE for Erin.

Erin stands at 32.2 ACE at the moment.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Re ... thatlantic