NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[TomballEd]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5165/Tfp0gz.gif

At least it has convection now. NHC seems pretty confident is will survive then thrive.

[Sciencerocks]

Only after moving into the subtropics. This is typical of a very unfavorable season.

[Jr0d]

The wave models and surf forecast has backed off considerably. However Gabriel is still forecasted to send a significant swell to the US east coast and will likely be a rip current threat.

I am not certain as its current condition will barely produce anything at all significant and if it continues to "under perform" those surf forecast will continue to back off,as will the rip current risk.

That said, Gabrielle sending a smaller swell to the beaches might be more hazardous as beach goers will stay out of the water when the surf is big, however a small swell with long intervals between sets(not wave period) can make the water look inviting but will have still strong rip currents that go unnoticed by most beach goers.

Small surf with infrequent relatively longer period sets are in my opinion, as a former ocean lifeguard, are the kind of conditions where we have the most rescues and unfortunately drownings.

Something to keep an eye on if Gabrielle stengthens as currently forecast.

[mitchell]

The wave models and surf forecast has backed off considerably. However Gabriel is still forecasted to send a significant swell to the US east coast and will likely be a rip current threat.

I am not certain as its current condition will barely produce anything at all significant and if it continues to "under perform" those surf forecast will continue to back off, as will the rip current risk.

Yeah 18 z swell models have backed off all the way down to 4 feet @ 12 seconds ESE swell for the most exposed spots on the Outer Banks on Tuesday the 23rd with peak significant wave heights (nearshore) of around 5 feet. Smaller size in Florida and New England, so pretty minor swell event, if verifies.

[Teban54]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks a lot better than it did earlier today, now we'll see if that can continue. Noticed the NHC went a little higher on the peak this cycle at 90kts. Would be nice to see an open Atlantic major as long as it misses Bermuda.

[Sciencerocks]

[TomballEd]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1144/e09TDt.gif

Might even be trying to put up storms near the center. Have to see if that persists.

[cycloneye]

Jogging westward.

[MGC]

Gabrielle looks slightly healthier this morning with convection persisting well away from the circulation center. Dry air is still an issue with the shear appears to be relaxing a bit. The cyclone does have a classic spiral low cloud appearance. Going to take several days for the dry air to abate.......MGC

[TomballEd]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1144/e09TDt.gif

Might even be trying to put up storms near the center. Have to see if that persists.

So far, persisting. W or WNW motion was expected by NHC while the system is shallow. Now that storms are firing near the center, it will feel deeper layer steering soon.

[Teban54]

Despite being almost devoid of convection and people calling for designation as a remnant low 24 hours ago, Gabrielle has been consistently firing hot convective towers ever since.

It's still clearly sheared, but this level of persistence reminds me of Fiona 2022 and Paulette 2020 at similar points of their lives.

[Sciencerocks]

[Pelicane]

Looks like the center is about to tuck itself under that new convective burst.

[cycloneye]

A. 07L (GABRIELLE)

B. 19/1800Z

C. 22.3N

D. 56.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC <0.5 DEG FROM COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE
MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING SUBTROPICAL 24 HOURS
AGO. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LINER

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Gabrielle is starting to get convection over the centre.

GOES-19 Geo Proxy 2 hour loop

[sasha_B]

Gabrielle seems to have improved substantially over the course of the day, judging by recent LWIR satellite imagery. Curious to see if she'll continue to pick up the pace or if the improvement is only temporary.

[cycloneye]

One step away from hurricane according to dvorak sab.

A. 07L (GABRIELLE)

B. 20/0000Z

C. 22.9N

D. 56.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS
IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING
SUBTROPICAL 24 HOURS AGO. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LINER

[chaser1]

Looks a lot better than it did earlier today, now we'll see if that can continue. Noticed the NHC went a little higher on the peak this cycle at 90kts. Would be nice to see an open Atlantic major as long as it misses Bermuda.

Yep, big improvement actually. Checking out the Dvorak BD curve, I'd venture to guess we'll see a partial eye clear out tomorrow and possibly tettering on Hurricane upgrade by dinner-time today IF it can maintain its vigorous convection. Only other thought atm is that it appears to be tracking more westward but it's tough to be sure under that dense CDO.