NATL: IMELDA - Models

[BensonTCwatcher]

I have seen maybe a couple TCs interact close enough where there is some discernable Fujiwhara effect; but never to the extent that ICON and CMC is showing.
I have a hard time swallowing this.

Second this. When they say it's rare, it is. Models show it happening almost every year on a run or two, but in reality, we typically see a highly sheared system(s) or dissipation of the weaker low. I'm betting that's what happens here. A shift in track - I'll buy that. Difficult forecast at 5 days? sure bet.

I'm watching where we see the low center really form later tonite.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro to the Myrtle Beach landfall. Notable how much Humberto accelerates 94l. Also bad for Western NC for rain.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Rainfall does look extreme as it stalls onshore.

[TomballEd]

I can't see all the pressures because the ensemble members are so close but I see at least one sub 970 mb member.

[Teban54]

I have seen maybe a couple TCs interact close enough where there is some discernable Fujiwhara effect; but never to the extent that ICON and CMC is showing.
I have a hard time swallowing this.

IIRC, a K storm absorbed an I or J storm early 2000s

You're probably describing Iris 2001 1995 absorbing Karen. A few examples of Fujiwhara in more recent years (from what I remember, in NHC basins):

• Philippe and Rina 2023. Both were weak TS, and Rina deteriorated soon after (but not due to the interaction). Philippe survived, but didn't strengthen meaningfully afterwards.
• Ileana and John 2018 (EPAC). John was already a hurricane, and absorbed Ileana.
• Hilary and Irwin 2017 (EPAC). Both storms rotated around each other as hurricanes (Cat 2 and Cat 1 respectively), but remained separate entities until dissipation. NOAA uses this as the satellite loop in explaining the Fujiwhara effect.
• Wilma and Alpha 2005. Wilma, obviously being stronger, absorbed TS Alpha past its Florida landfall.

I didn't do an exhaustive search of such examples prior to 2011. A few other pairs of storms were briefly modeled to undergo Fujiwhara at some point (Laura and Marco 2020, Jerry and Karen 2019), but they ultimately did not play out.

There also seem to be way more examples in the WPAC, but I'm not familiar enough with them.

Edit: Oops, misremembered which Iris it was. Thanks tallywx for mentioning it.

[Teban54]

Rainfall does look extreme as it stalls onshore.

https://i.imgur.com/uLa5gKt.png

It also looks like the highest rainfall totals are in regions that just suffered from flooding due to Helene last year...

[tallywx]

I have seen maybe a couple TCs interact close enough where there is some discernable Fujiwhara effect; but never to the extent that ICON and CMC is showing.
I have a hard time swallowing this.

IIRC, a K storm absorbed an I or J storm early 2000s

1995 Hurricane Iris absorbed Tropical Storm Karen: https://hurricanes.fandom.com/wiki/Trop ... aren_(1995)

[LarryWx]

Based on the 12Z ops and individual members of GEFS/GEPS, the best bet for the SE to not get hit thanks to Fujiwhara is for 94L to not be moving too fast and thus never get N of Humberto’s latitude. Helping also would be for it to be significantly weaker than Humberto.

[cycloneye]

Wow, is 10 days here from Euro, but it has a deluge for the Carolinas.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Rainfall does look extreme as it stalls onshore.

https://i.imgur.com/uLa5gKt.png

It also looks like the highest rainfall totals are in regions that just suffered from flooding due to Helene last year...

That would be further west. The heaviest rains don't get over the mountains which is where Helene's rains were. Helene came in at a very tricky angle in regards to the orientation of the mountains which is why it was so bad for the Asheville area.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wow, is 10 days here from Euro, but it has a deluge for the Carolinas.

https://i.imgur.com/8YFgPsC.jpeg

Well, at least Mark Sudduth will save some money on travel expenses chasing this storm (and of course we all hope there is no damage to the area)

[aspen]

12z AI Euro has Humberto try to drag 94L OTS and prevents a landfall, but then it gets pinned under the strong high developing over the northeast next week.

I can’t remember the last time a storm has had this level of uncertainty in the short range. We may be only 5 days out from a landfall and we still don’t know for sure if that’ll happen.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS, while still scary for the SE US with ~60% hitting and ~50%+ of those hitting being strong TS+, isn’t quite as ominous as the 0Z, which had ~75% hitting the SE. About 40% of members are strongly affected by Fujiwhara with Humberto.

[syfr]

Rainfall does look extreme as it stalls onshore.

https://i.imgur.com/uLa5gKt.png

It also looks like the highest rainfall totals are in regions that just suffered from flooding due to Helene last year...

Helene really hammered the western mountains of NC , not so much the central/E.central section.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro ensemble animation

[BobHarlem]

another left shift on the 18z earlies

[ronjon]

HAFS-A has a 982 mb hurricane heading due west now hitting JAX. Not sure what is imparting the west shift in recent guidance. There is a mid-level low forecast in the deep south. Perhaps this feature is sinking more south imparting a negative tilt.

[tolakram]

We've gone from no activity to "I don't know which thread to post this in"! I posted Levi's video in the 94L discussion thread, he does a good job explaining the model runs.

[cycloneye]

We've gone from no activity to "I don't know which thread to post this in"! I posted Levi's video in the 94L discussion thread, he does a good job explaining the model runs.

Post it here.