NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[ScottNAtlanta]

30 degrees C in the eye, that has to be close to a record (the latest reading from vortex msg)

[chaser1]

I am not seeing any WNW component of track over the past several frames. Right now, due west and Melissa is presently passing the NHC recent 5:00 a.m. forecast point.

[dukeblue219]

It's not just the 194kt reading 12mb off the surface that's amazing - it's 170 and 180kt readings all the way down on that drop. Yikes.

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/7SaRnWi.png
This is one of the strongest dropsonde I've ever seen

wow the surface reduction from the WL150 winds supports 145-150kts, I would lean towards 145kts given that its right on the edge between the two and the gust at the surface is only 151kts.

[Stormgodess]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

[ScottNAtlanta]

30 degrees C in the eye, that has to be close to a record (the latest reading from vortex msg)

Patricia had 32.2, and Typhoon Judy (current warmest on record) had a temp of 34...so not too far off

[Teban54]

NOAA's eye drop is 915 mb with 15 kt winds, strangely similar to the earlier passes an hour ago, and higher than extrap on both planes from this pass.

No signs of eye drying out yet.

[Keldeo1997]

Vdm has 907mb

[zzzh]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

[chaser1]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

Thats mindblowing.... and really cool too .
I had no clue they as an organization were that large or that organized.

[Teban54]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

The AF plane never measured any sub-910 extrap pressure, though. Even the NOAA didn't go that low (and I wouldn't expect an AF VDM to use NOAA data).

The original VDM message only said 916 mb, and AF's dropsonade data hasn't been available yet. So I have no idea where the 907 could have plausibly come from.

[GCANE]

About 12nm west of forecast track

[Blown Away]

Melissa definitely WSW of the track.

[BobHarlem]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg [/url]
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

11pm forecast had it getting to 78.2W. I wish the forecast points were at 6 hour intervals instead of 12 to align better with advisories -- it always gets folks thinking there's a track shift, when there actually wasn't (as is the case here). But it's not really off unless it gets beyond 78.2W.

[GCANE]

Seeing the feeder band creating a number of hot towers as it impinges on the main circulation.
Wonder if this will create a new eyewall.

[Stormgodess]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

Thats mindblowing.... and really cool too .
I had no clue they as an organization were that large or that organized.

The guys that organized around the Aug 2016 Floods then went on to work Harvey in TX. Seemed to have really gotten their stuff together. They spent months and months in North Carolina too.

[chaser1]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

[BobHarlem]

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

Thats mindblowing.... and really cool too .
I had no clue they as an organization were that large or that organized.

The guys that organized around the Aug 2016 Floods then went on to work Harvey in TX. Seemed to have really gotten their stuff together. They spent months and months in North Carolina too.

Beyond Josh, Jeff Piotrowski is there that I know of. Bryce Shelton and Paige Berdomas. Josh is Mandeville at the Golf View Hotel, but only as a home base he'll wind up wherever the eye goes (Probably close to Treasure Beach) This is an incredibly dangerous one for outsiders to go to because of the mountains, so I suspect this one may wind up with folks stuck for extended periods of time.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg [/url]
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

11pm forecast had it getting to 78.2W. I wish the forecast points were at 6 hour intervals to align better with advisories. But it's not really off unless it gets beyond 78.2W.

5am had N turn at 78.1W, not a big difference, but that core is not huge, so 10-20 miles here or there will make a difference at landfall for someone.