NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

With a peak intensity of 908 mb, Melissa has now passed 1924 Cuba, Ivan and Dorian. It is now tied with Maria as the 11th most intense Atlantic hurricane in the database.

If Melissa can deepen by another 3 mb, it would tie with Mitch and Dean as the 9th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at 905 mb. It would also tie with Ragasa as the most intense tropical cyclone in 2025 (by official records).

Of course, the feasibility of further deepening is another question.

[sasha_B]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

[Hurricane2022]

What a complicated day it has been for me so far. I almost overslept, barely had time to grab my phone and check what was happening, I just sent a good morning message to my family. During my lunch break, I finally got to see what was happening and I was shocked. Unbelievable!

[mrbagyo]

AF plane headed up north, looks like it's going for another pass

[Flwxguy86]

is it possible the models are thinking the ridge is weaker than it really is? this movement west seems like more than a wobble or a jog. It so far showing no hint of moving even wnw let alone NW or NE..not saying it won't but in about 12-24 hours, it will either barely clip the islands west coast or miss it all together..my concern right now wouldn't be necessarily what happens next, but the trust that would be eroded away if it does miss Jamaica or just barely clips the western edge after being told for days it would effect the entire island, Kingston is damn near in the clear as far as the eye at this point, its almost due south of kingston by 100 miles or so..I guess we will know by tonight, but I am not liking the trend west, although its great for most of jamaica except the constant rain and flooding but I think it may be far enough south that the flooding may not be as catastrophic as predicted. Let's hope thats turns out to be the case.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982813591158857799

[Teban54]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

Hmm, most records that I can find now show that JTWC did have a 1-min wind speed of 145 kt for Ragasa. (I can't open their website, so showing CSU here.) Was this another case of JTWC's silent best track revisions? Or were you converting JMA to 1-min?

[kevin]

Interpolating the current NHC forecast for Melissa means that we'd get about 17.2 more ACE from this storm from now on. Added to the current 112.6 ACE value for the season would bring the total ACE for 2025 to roughly 130.

[ATDoel]

With a peak intensity of 908 mb, Melissa has now passed 1924 Cuba, Ivan and Dorian. It is now tied with Maria as the 11th most intense Atlantic hurricane in the database.

If Melissa can deepen by another 3 mb, it would tie with Mitch and Dean as the 9th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at 905 mb. It would also tie with Ragasa as the most intense tropical cyclone in 2025 (by official records).

Of course, the feasibility of further deepening is another question.

Is there more shear forecasted? There's high enough STP where Melissa is to get deeper, quite a bit deeper actually.

[sasha_B]

I didn't even realise there had been a subjective Dvorak fix at 12z of T7.5....certainly wasn't expecting that. Glad to see that the values on ADT got some backup from OSPO.

[aspen]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

I missed that insane Dvorak presentation overnight. Is this the first time ever that a system managed to hit T8.0 on ADT? Aside from Eta hitting T8.0+ RAWs.

[sasha_B]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

Hmm, most records that I can find now show that JTWC did have a 1-min wind speed of 145 kt for Ragasa. (I can't open their website, so showing CSU here.) Was this another case of JTWC's silent best track revisions? Or were you converting JMA to 1-min?

https://i.imgur.com/2bWtHVi.png

Oh, no, you're right! That's odd, I must have misremembered the JTWC peak. Thanks for pointing that out - looks like Melissa has indeed only tied Ragasa for MSW after all.

[Teban54]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

I missed that insane Dvorak presentation overnight. Is this the first time ever that a system managed to hit T8.0 on ADT? Aside from Eta hitting T8.0+ RAWs.

As I noted here, yes in terms of CI #:

Does Melissa have the highest CI# in Atlantic ADT history? Melissa's CI# just hit 7.8 with the most recent analysis, and the closest I could find in the Atlantic archives going back to ADT's implementation was Milton at a CI# of 7.7.

I assume you're looking at the CIMSS archives; the NOAA archives somehow have different data, with Milton's CI# only peaking at 7.4.

Checking the CIMSS archives, indeed it is:

• 8.1: Melissa
• 7.7: Milton
• 7.3: Irma, Eta
• 7.2: Rita, Michael
• 7.1: Dean, Maria, Lorenzo (2019)
• 7.0: Bill (2009), Matthew, Iota, Kirk (2024), Humberto (2025)

It's possible that the algorithm may have been improved since 2003, so the early comparisons may not be totally applicable. Case in point, Rita was the only storm in 2003-2005 that made this list.

Updated with the latest CI 8.1 for Melissa.

[sasha_B]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

I missed that insane Dvorak presentation overnight. Is this the first time ever that a system managed to hit T8.0 on ADT? Aside from Eta hitting T8.0+ RAWs.

I believe so, yes. There was some discussion of ADT records earlier; IIRC Melissa now holds the records for CI/Final T# (8.1) and Adj. T# (8.3) in the Atlantic.

[Fancy1002]

I wish the NOAA plane would do one more pass-through before heading home.

[Travorum]

I wish the NOAA plane would do one more pass-through before heading home.

From the NHC discussion they were supposed to but hit extreme turbulence:

The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.

[FLpanhandle91]

https://fr24.com/TEAL76/3cd8177d

NE to SW pass incoming.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1982822802903494894

[TallyTracker]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

Well...it's up to 353 now...that's a lotta bots