NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Jr0d]

ooks like AF may have missed the eye also, we will see with the next batch of data. My guess is the turbulence is so bad they are having trouble holding a straight course. edit...i was mistaken

When I went sleep to around noon, I did not expect to wake up to Melissa still having a perfect eye and expected an EWRC, or even some dry air intrusion. Its rare for a storm to be able maintain this kind of intensity and this effectively perfect structure for so long.

[aspen]

Holding steady around 910 it seems. SW eyewall is ludicrous.

[aspen]

150kt FL in NE

This batch is cut off exactly at the 150 kt FL from what I can see, so it's possible for higher winds to be reported later.

Edit: Also, still no double wind maxima until this 150 kt.

Is tropical tidbits getting overloaded, I got a few gateway errors and no update?

I’ve been getting a ton too. I think it is from everyone checking in on recon lol. Pressing the refresh button solves it every time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

[Sciencerocks]

[Jr0d]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

[Teban54]

Question: Why did they schedule the recon in a way that have two planes penetrate the eye at almost the same time and the same angle?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

Clearly it must have some degree of accuracy, because the NHC is using 175mph.

CDO is cooling, down to -79.5C..

[Kazmit]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8479/7RGx5Y.gif

The CDO looks like it’s expanding, to the west especially.

[Ian2401]

Question: Why did they schedule the recon in a way that have two planes penetrate the eye at almost the same time and the same angle?

If I had to guess it is another layer of confidence in their wind speed and pressure measurements if both planes show similar readings.

[sikkar]

Ocean heat content working its magic.

[NotoSans]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

Clearly it must have some degree of accuracy, because the NHC is using 175mph.

CDO is cooling, down to -79.5C..

The NHC took into account dropsonde winds but not SFMR.

The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In
addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the
northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the
time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been
little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has
weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend
of the surface wind estimates mentioned above.

[zzzh]

Still a very strong dropsonde profile.

[Teban54]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

Clearly it must have some degree of accuracy, because the NHC is using 175mph.

CDO is cooling, down to -79.5C..

Regarding this advisory's 150 kt, I wonder if it's a matter of:

• NHC may not have factored in this pass, which happened just 4 minutes before the advisory time. (There was another instance earlier today, where the wording gave no mention to a similarly timed eye pass.)
• Because of this, they may prefer to show continuity, when they're uncertain about whether Melissa is strengthening or weakening (or neither) from the first pass alone.

If subsequent passes report similar results, then I can see later advisories dropping to 145 kt, which is the current forecast intensity for 2am EDT.

Edit: I forgot the possibility that you may have been referring to earlier times when they went with 150 kt, which NotoSans covered pretty well.

[Jr0d]

@Kyle
They are going with 175 mph based on other data, this was a post early this morning about the flaws in SFMR data and why NOAA does not publicly post their SFMR data.

Please see the SFMR thread at the end for context.
....snip.....
See this thread on Bluesky about SFMR being unreliable from earlier NOAA mission where SFMR was turned off:
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ce6exp ... 4fslz5zk2b

....snip......

‪James Franklin‬: "Alan, unless something has changed recently, the SFMR data aren’t considered properly calibrated. NOAA turned off the transmission of the SFMR but that’s harder to do on the AF C-130s."

‪Alan Gerard‬: "Thanks for the update on that. I didn’t know if that was the situation still or not. I will avoid mentioning going forward"

James Franklin‬: "I haven’t heard anything and I understand the fixes are non-trivial, so yeah, use with caution, especially at the high end."

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1982961410171904386

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/enhancedrisk/status/1982962719360979427

[aspen]

910/8 eye drop from NOAA, so probably 909 mbar right now.

[Nimbus]

910/8 eye drop from NOAA, so probably 909 mbar right now.

It has been almost stationary last two hours.
Which way will it track next?
If she waits for the trough to get pushed NE you would think we might get some dry shear to put an end to this madness. Official forecast track still east of Montego Bay?

[Teban54]

The CDG (pink) ring is now almost as thick as it can be. With obvious caveats that (1) not sure how long this will last, and (2) the colder tropopause since sunset is overblowing things.