NATL: IMELDA - Models

[ronjon]

The 18Z Gfs has only a 997mb low at landfall. I don't know why on Tropical Tidbits models it has been losing the MB # in certain systems from time to time.

Yeah I noticed that too metro. Although thought I counted 8 2mb interval contours from the 1002 mb line which would be 986 mb??

[ConvergenceZone]

The 18Z Gfs has only a 997mb low at landfall. I don't know why on Tropical Tidbits models it has been losing the MB # in certain systems from time to time.

Wow that's weak, but then again I don't think any of the models are bombing this thing out, but even so, if it stalls or moves slowly, it could still be a horrible rain event.

[Teban54]

Reminder: The last Imelda in 2019 peaked at 40 kts, and only retained tropical storm intensity for 9 hours during its entire lifetime. But it was the 4th wettest TC in Texas, with $5 billion in damage.

[Blown Away]

Most of the 18z model intensity trending down to strong TS to Cat 1.

[Zonacane]

Models are trending down because Imelda is a mess and takes a long time to consolidate properly

[chaser1]

Whelp, I'm jumping on the NAM bandwagon and I know what ya'll are thinking

I'll tell you why. I don't think the models have handled 94L genesis all too well. Add 94L continuing to entangle itself with Hispanola and/or upper level shear for at least another day or two. Someone already mentioned that it appeared that had ICON's 18Z model run continued past 120 hr, it looked as if 94L was about to feel Humberto's tug and begin a NNE (and then N.E.) motion.
Looks to me that this solution is favored by ICON, CMC, NAVGEM, and yes... NAM as well. I think a quicker developing 94L would be stronger and apt to feel the CONUS trough and threaten S. Carolina. I think a slow to develop weak (Wave, T.D., T.S.) system will be apt to simply have its mid level vorticity pulled N.E.ward into a stronger Cat 2 or 3 circulation.

I may end up eating my words LOL but right now I'm hedging that 94L max's out as a T.D. or weak T.S. and never makes U.S. landfall.

[Ubuntwo]

The 18Z Gfs has only a 997mb low at landfall. I don't know why on Tropical Tidbits models it has been losing the MB # in certain systems from time to time.

It’s 989mb at landfall this run. Model trackers have been dropping the low label here due to proximity with the stronger Humberto, which shows up as the ‘dominant’ low for the area.

[ConvergenceZone]

Most of the 18z model intensity trending down to strong TS to Cat 1.

yea conditions just aren't that good for much strengthening and models seem to be all be picking up on that. But sometimes flooding rains can be much more damaging than winds.

[ronjon]

18z Euro AI shifted west toward SC landfall. It gets close to landfall and then moves slightly east, stalls, and eventually heads inland near the SC/NC border. A shift west however from the 12z run.

[ronjon]

Most of the 18z model intensity trending down to strong TS to Cat 1.

All the hurricane models except HMON show around 985-989 mb storm making landfall (probably a CAT 1). They are showing some dry air wrapping into the storm most likely due to the influence of the cutoff mid-level low over the SE. And the storm really doesn't get organized until it's in the Bahamas.

[LarryWx]

Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): 

​​​​​​​-Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land.

-There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.

[ronjon]

Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): 

​​​​​​​-Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land.

-There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.

Yeah Larry I was referencing the HAFS and HWRF, which always tend to be lower than the globals.

[Teban54]

18z model intensities of 94L:

HAFS-A (initialized on 94L):

• Peak: 988 mb / 69 kt (Cat 1) / 96-99 hrs
• Landfall a little NE of Charleston, near peak intensity

HAFS-A Parent (initialized on Humberto):

• Peak: Pressure unknown, likely 970s / 96-108 hrs
• Landfall near SC/GA border, near peak intensity

HAFS-B (initialized on 94L):

• Peak: 984 mb / 67 kt (Cat 1) / 90-6 hrs
• Landfall in Charleston (very slightly weakened)

HAFS-B Parent (initialized on Humberto):

• Peak: 979 mb or lower / 114-126 hrs
• Stalls offshore SC, Fujiwhara with Humberto (while bringing Humberto to offshore VA)

HWRF (initialized on 94L):

• Peak: 975 mb / 80 kt (Cat 2) / 102-108 hrs
• Landfall in Wilmington, NC at peak intensity

HWRF Parent (initialized on Humberto):

• Peak: 990s
• Landfall near SC/NC border

HMON:

• Peak: 991 mb / 62 kt (TS) / 93 hrs
• Landfall in Georgetown, SC at peak intensity

GFS:

• Peak: 989 mb / 50 kt (TS) / 102 hrs
• Landfall in Myrtle Beach, SC at peak intensity

ECMWF:

• 18z hasn't loaded on TT yet, will update later

ICON:

• Peak: Likely 970s or lower / 120 hrs -- end of run
• Fujiwhara with Humberto, moving south back towards Grand Bahama

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/SheaGibsonWx/status/1971387673127551241

[Woofde]

Total bifurcation of models. Those two tracks are two wildly different outcomes. Is there any model that's known to be best with binary systems?

[floridasun]

we cannot go any models run until hurricane hunter find low

[BobHarlem]

0z icon

[AnnularCane]

0z icon
https://i.postimg.cc/d30XRCY6/floop-icon-2025092600-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif

Saw the mainland and immediately chickened out.

[Pelicane]

GFS looks a little slower and closer to Humberto initially, but it remains pretty much the same after that.