NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Hurricane2022]

Am I gonna have to set an alarm for 3am? I really wanna see this thing's peak but I have work in the morning.

Fortunately tomorrow is a national holiday in my country, so I can stay up a little longer but not as much as yesterday.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/1982991032720728258

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the satellite - very close to a T8.0. Has there EVER been an Atlantic hurricane that had a legitimate Dvorak reading of 8.0?

[sasha_B]

As of 0140z 2025.10.28, Hurricane Melissa's raw T# has peaked the Dvorak technique's scale, attaining the highest possible value of 8.5.

[USTropics]

Looking at the satellite - very close to a T8.0. Has there EVER been an Atlantic hurricane that had a legitimate Dvorak reading of 8.0?

I mean...look at this satellite presentation (literally at a loss for words right now)...

[Iceresistance]

Looking at the satellite - very close to a T8.0. Has there EVER been an Atlantic hurricane that had a legitimate Dvorak reading of 8.0?

Speaking of Dvorak, the ADT put out this:

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

[michelinj]

Raw T is 8.5. Final 8.3

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

[edu2703]

Looking at the satellite - very close to a T8.0. Has there EVER been an Atlantic hurricane that had a legitimate Dvorak reading of 8.0?

I mean...look at this satellite presentation (literally at a loss for words right now)...

https://i.imgur.com/j8tfCbt.gif

Welcome back, Typhoon Haiyan

This is probably one of the best, if not the best satellite presentation of an Atlantic hurricane.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the satellite - very close to a T8.0. Has there EVER been an Atlantic hurricane that had a legitimate Dvorak reading of 8.0?

I mean...look at this satellite presentation (literally at a loss for words right now)...

https://i.imgur.com/j8tfCbt.gif

Welcome back, Typhoon Haiyan

This is probably one of the best, if not the best satellite presentation of an Atlantic hurricane.

It's probably what the 1932 Cuba hurricane would have looked like on modern satellites as well.

[Nuno]

Absolutely incredible storm. I know we've seen a lot of powerful cyclones in the basin this decade but this is on another level.

[aspen]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

[REDHurricane]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

[Hurricane2022]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is at Patricia/Haiyan levels. Fortunately we have recon now.

[CrazyC83]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

This is in the league of the high-end WPAC super typhoons. I always wonder what it would be like if we had Recon over there...

[InfernoFlameCat]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

The eye dropsonde should make it. Eyewall is another story

[Hurricane2022]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

I'm thinking something around 155 kt/898 mb. Maybe also 160/895.

[REDHurricane]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

The eye dropsonde should make it. Eyewall is another story

Oh yeah duh, that's what I get for posting before I eat dinner lol

Anyone think recon will find below 890mb? I doubt it'll reach Wilma's 882mb given that it was at 907 just an hour-ish ago, but if a storm were to surpass Wilma I'd expect it to look pretty much exactly like this

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan... Meranti... Goni... and now Melissa.

Only wishing nothing but the best, and my most fervent prayers for Jamaica. I've got friends in the island and I believe in their spirit. I'm keeping touch with them.

Gilbert was the last bad (worst) storm they remember and this is much much worse. This is basically, hopefully not, their Haiyan. May God protect their people.