NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Fancy1002]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is at Patricia/Haiyan levels. Fortunately we have recon now.

We had recon in Patricia.

[ScottNAtlanta]

So, show of hands...how many think this will be the last time Melissa is on the list?

[Hurricane2022]

Giant tornado
 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982997845830697001

[USTropics]

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

The eye dropsonde should make it. Eyewall is another story

Oh yeah duh, that's what I get for posting before I eat dinner lol

Anyone think recon will find below 890mb? I doubt it'll reach Wilma's 882mb given that it was at 907 just an hour-ish ago, but if a storm were to surpass Wilma I'd expect it to look pretty much exactly like this

I watched Wilma happen in real time (back when satellite imagery updated every 30 minutes on GOES-13 if I remember correctly)...this is as close to Wilma as you are going to get in real time.

[sponger]

No words! This is a storm that will certainly be retired when it is all done. A bit of an East wobble so perhaps the turn to the NE has begun. Hunker down Jamaica, we will be here for you when it is all over.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is at Patricia/Haiyan levels. Fortunately we have recon now.

We had recon in Patricia.

Patricia continued intensifying for 6 hours after the plane left and another plane didn’t arrive until after 6 more hours, so recon missed the peak.

[dukeblue219]

C'mon guys, recon planes have been making regular passes for a couple hours. She's a monster but this pass is not going to be sub-890.

[ScottNAtlanta]

No words! This is a storm that will certainly be retired when it is all done. A bit of an East wobble so perhaps the turn to the NE has begun. Hunker down Jamaica, we will be here for you when it is all over.

Yeah, I don't think this is a wobble. This is a change of direction. I just hope it doesn't make it closer to Kingston.

[Keldeo1997]

Giant tornado
 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982997845830697001

Its a super cell...

[Iceresistance]

Giant tornado
 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982997845830697001

Its a super cell...

I remember when one of Milton's MW passes had it look like the exact same thing

[aspen]

We’re mere minutes away from a potentially historic recon pass.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1982920947322835000


 https://x.com/TannerCharlesMN/status/1982926984150954134

[Jr0d]

Looking at the last 3 eyewall dropsondes from NOAA's rcon showing 138kt, 138kt, 141kt at the surface I think we can safely say those give a good estimation of sustained winds.

With the Air Force having the 151kt surface dropsonde this tells me that there are likely sustained 360° of cat 5 wind at the surface in the eyewall.

I know its common for storms with this kind of structure to have relatively symmetric winds but its still mind boggling to think of the scale. The eyewall is essentially a strong EF-3, to an EF-4 tornado.

I hope the AF recon can do one more eye pass and they still have dropsondes left, iirc this morning they did not have any left for their final eye pass.

Lets pray we have significant weaking and eyewall deterioration before Melissa hits Jamaica.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I keep hitting the refresh button on GE waiting for the next set of data. It should be in or very close to the eye

[Hurricane2022]

163 kt FL!

[zzzh]

FL 163 in SW

[CrazyC83]

Based on that being on the weaker side, I'd think the next pass might be even higher. Also, if I extrapolate correctly, it's already below 915 and still in the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

163 knot flight level winds on the SW side of the storm.

[Teban54]

Somehow the CDO is still getting colder:

[ScottNAtlanta]

They are in the eye, but it's really hard to separate the data since they are running over the same path over and over.