ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

Curious to see what recon finds, and what's actually under the hood here. Base solely off satellite imagery I'd say this probably has closer to a 50/50 chance of formation, but looks can be deceiving.

[LarryWx]

Hurricanes since 1975 in Jul-Sep that hit S or C coast of TX in MJO phase 2:
-Hanna of 2020
-Harvey of 2017
-Claudette of 2003
-Bret of 1999


All S or C coast of TX H landfalls Jul-Sep since 1975 by MJO phase:
-1: Allen 1980
-2: Hanna, Harvey, Claudette, Bret
-3: Beryl 2024, Dolly 2008
-4-8: none

So, of the 7 Hs to landfall on S or C TX Jul-Sep since 1975, 4 (57%) hit during phase 2 and 6 (86%) hit during either phase 2 or 3!
The MJO is in phase 2 today and is progged to likely be in phase 2 tomorrow though phase 3 is a slight possibility. Just some climo for thought.

[wxman57]

Fortunately, this blob of storms will be inland tomorrow morning, probably northeast Mexico to South TX. Mostly a rain event.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Fortunately, this blob of storms will be inland tomorrow morning, probably northeast Mexico to South TX. Mostly a rain event.

They said tomorrow night into Saturday, so it has some time.

[wxman57]

Fortunately, this blob of storms will be inland tomorrow morning, probably northeast Mexico to South TX. Mostly a rain event.

They said tomorrow night into Saturday, so it has some time.

Models generally have it inland before noon tomorrow. Around 15Z for GFS and ICON.

[jaguars_22]

The more north this gets the more time over water... landfall in corpus gives it few hours more... further up the coast Rockport....little more time

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[South Texas Storms]

NHC is up to 40% now.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[mcheer23]

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[TomballEd]

Hurricanes since 1975 in Jul-Sep that hit S or C coast of TX in MJO phase 2:
-Hanna of 2020
-Harvey of 2017
-Claudette of 2003
-Bret of 1999


All S or C coast of TX H landfalls Jul-Sep since 1975 by MJO phase:
-1: Allen 1980
-2: Hanna, Harvey, Claudette, Bret
-3: Beryl 2024, Dolly 2008
-4-8: none

So, of the 7 Hs to landfall on S or C TX Jul-Sep since 1975, 4 (57%) hit during phase 2 and 6 (86%) hit during either phase 2 or 3!
The MJO is in phase 2 today and is progged to likely be in phase 2 tomorrow though phase 3 is a slight possibility. Just some climo for thought.

I got to fly in a turbo-prop plane through the outer rainbands of Claudette. Flying to DFW to connect to BOS for my grandmother's funeral. Ride was very smooth and when we broke into sunshine, we broke into cloud free sunshine. Turboprop in a hurricane is the closest thing to a Hurricane Hunter I'll ever get.

[galaxy401]

NHC says that 98L will move inland late Friday and not in the morning. Those few hours could make a big difference depending on how fast it develops.

[TomballEd]

Looking over the recon thread and tropical tidbits, the wind isn't very high and nothing suggesting a closed system. But they are still loooking,

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking over the recon thread and tropical tidbits, the wind isn't very high and nothing suggesting a closed system. But they are still loooking,

They are flying really low. 538 feet

[wxman57]

Looks like the plane found a trof axis oriented NNW to SSE across the squalls. Any rotation on satellite appears to be aloft. Satellite indicates that cloud tops are warming and the system is becoming less organized. Convection is racing northwestward. It may reach the MX/TX border by sunrise tomorrow. Likely just some rain.

[wxman57]

I measured the 3-hr movement of the leading edge of squalls between 17Z and 20Z. I got a NW motion of 20 kts. Since it's 154 miles away from the TX/MX border, that puts it into the coast in about 8 hrs from 3pm, or late this evening. No Fernand for you!

[Stratton23]

Rainfall totals look absolutely pathetic with this system

[StormWeather]

Interesting that recon recorded 39 kt winds as they are on the way out of the invest going through the same way they came in.

[TomballEd]

Rainfall totals look absolutely pathetic with this system

Yup.

[TomballEd]

Interesting that recon recorded 39 kt winds as they are on the way out of the invest going through the same way they came in.

Before they climbed to 6000 meters?

[StormWeather]

Interesting that recon recorded 39 kt winds as they are on the way out of the invest going through the same way they came in.

Before they climbed to 6000 meters?

They were leaving the system when they mesured it.

Between 20:51z and 21:01z according to CyclonicWx’s recon data it looks like they were between 3000 meters and 4000 meters.