NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Peak winds from AF mission.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 56kt at 11:53z
Peak SFMR: 48kt at 11:26z

[Travorum]

Per recon it looks like the small core that formed yesterday has given way to a broader one that is still developing—26nm diameter, open ESE, ragged SW. HAFS-A modelled this happening pretty well on at least one run yesterday.

F. OPEN ESE
G. C26
EYEWALL PRESENTATION RAGGED ON SW SIDE

[Teban54]

Rotating hot towers?

[StormWeather]

It’s definitely looking like Gabrielle is likely a hurricane now based off of recon reports.

Highest flight level winds so are 69 kts.

[Teban54]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://i.postimg.cc/vTkfCTK9/e8f1bfa8-efbd-406d-9784-b8c5f970a60a.jpg

Looks like an eye in there.

[MarioProtVI]

Recon remains steady - seems to be still struggling to mix out dry air on the western side. I think this morning’s forecast is probably a bit too high if Gabrielle continues to not intensify despite improving satellite-wise. The chances of this becoming a major are decreasing the longer it doesn’t ramp up, which would probably mean September 2025 goes majorless for the first time since 2015 given the other AOIs seem to not have much support for a strong storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 65kt

AL, 07, 2025092118, , BEST, 0, 281N, 615W, 65, 993, HU

[MarioProtVI]

Recon remains steady - seems to be still struggling to mix out dry air on the western side. I think this morning’s forecast is probably a bit too high if Gabrielle continues to not intensify despite improving satellite-wise. The chances of this becoming a major are decreasing the longer it doesn’t ramp up, which would probably mean September 2025 goes majorless for the first time since 2015 given the other AOIs seem to not have much support for a strong storm.

As soon as I said this it became a hurricane on BT and is firing dual VHTs

[StormWeather]

Recon remains steady - seems to be still struggling to mix out dry air on the western side. I think this morning’s forecast is probably a bit too high if Gabrielle continues to not intensify despite improving satellite-wise. The chances of this becoming a major are decreasing the longer it doesn’t ramp up, which would probably mean September 2025 goes majorless for the first time since 2015 given the other AOIs seem to not have much support for a strong storm.

As soon as I said this it became a hurricane on BT and is firing dual VHTs

Never say never in the tropics!

[cycloneye]

The 5 PM forecast goes up to cat 3.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

[cheezyWXguy]

So Gabrielle finally woke up. With no significant impacts to land in the immediate forecast, I’m glad to see it.

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

A dropsonde from NOAA9 showed 991mb/20kt (21:45z). However the NHC 00z best track only has it a 65kt/992mb. Given the continuously improving satellite appearance, I'd say this is more than just a 65kt hurricane.

[Teban54]

Quickly intensifying IMO.

[TomballEd]

Quickly intensifying IMO.

https://i.postimg.cc/FKMf14Dg/goes19-ir-07-L-202509212025.gif

It had to move out of the deep tropics.

[CrazyC83]

If this stays low enough in latitude, it might hold most of its intensity for a bit, and may be an issue for the Azores late this week.

[cheezyWXguy]

Really getting its act together now. Major status really does seem attainable by sometime tomorrow

[MarioProtVI]

Really getting its act together now. Major status really does seem attainable by sometime tomorrow

Kinda funny given with the dead-ish season so far you’d think Gabrielle would get a little more attention here but Ragasa has everyone’s attention right now