NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

I disagree with the forecast to Category 5. I don't think Humberto will reach it. I could be wrong but I think it stays as a Category 4.

[Zonacane]

Looks like an ERC is underway

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like an ERC is underway

Although I had my suspicions earlier about this, I don’t think that’s what we’re seeing here. Switch over to nighttime visible and you can see that the eye is still stable, but it’s become partially clouded for the time being, as has been the case a couple of times today. Tomorrow it may be a different story, but for now I’d expect the eye to clear out again with time.

[Travorum]

Interesting discussion in the TAFB 06z subjective dvorak fix, they say weakness in the western eyewall is from shear from the outflow of PTC 9:

TXNT23 KNES 270616
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HUMBERTO)

B. 27/0600Z

C. 22.3N

D. 58.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/PRXY/MHS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E#
OF 5.0 WITH +1.0 EADJ FOR A DT OF 6.0. EYE TEMP +12 C. SOME EROSION OF
WRN EYEWALL LAST 6 HR DUE TO W SHEAR FM OUTFLOW FM PTC 9. MET=5.0 AND
PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0047Z 22.1N 58.5W MHS


...KONON

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Interesting discussion in the TAFB 06z subjective dvorak fix, they say weakness in the western eyewall is from shear from the outflow of PTC 9:

TXNT23 KNES 270616
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HUMBERTO)

B. 27/0600Z

C. 22.3N

D. 58.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/PRXY/MHS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E#
OF 5.0 WITH +1.0 EADJ FOR A DT OF 6.0. EYE TEMP +12 C. SOME EROSION OF
WRN EYEWALL LAST 6 HR DUE TO W SHEAR FM OUTFLOW FM PTC 9. MET=5.0 AND
PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/0047Z 22.1N 58.5W MHS


...KONON

Good. Let them fight each other!

[Travorum]

Rise and shine Humberto

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking fierce this morning. Looks somewhat similar to Beryl last year.

[Travorum]

12z best track:

AL, 08, 2025092712, , BEST, 0, 225N, 597W, 125, 938, HU

[Teban54]

12z best track:

AL, 08, 2025092712, , BEST, 0, 225N, 597W, 125, 938, HU

I'm a little surprised they didn't go higher than the 9z advisory. It still seems to be intensifying to me with the eye clearing out further.

[cycloneye]

12z best track:

AL, 08, 2025092712, , BEST, 0, 225N, 597W, 125, 938, HU

The satellite presentation has improved bigtime and IMO, is stronger that 125kt.

[Travorum]

12z best track:

AL, 08, 2025092712, , BEST, 0, 225N, 597W, 125, 938, HU

I'm a little surprised they didn't go higher than the 9z advisory. It still seems to be intensifying to me with the eye clearing out further.

https://i.postimg.cc/Fs8ZYdM2/goes19-ir-08-L-202509270745.gif

It definitely looks stronger than 125kts but subjective dvorak bulletins came in at 6.0 and 6.5 (the B ring was just on the edge of being thick enough) and ADT CI# was down due to the weaker appearance overnight, so I imagine they split the difference and kept it constant. I think we'll see 130+ at 11am if trends continue.

[Travorum]

As a fun side note, the probable reason there's no meso sector over Humberto (at least yesterday, not sure about today) is a cascading situation that goes all the way over to Hawaii. Kauai radar was offline requiring a GOES-18 meso sector over it for forecasted weather. An extratropical low in Alaska took up the other GOES-18 meso. Excessive rainfall in Arizona required a meso sector that normally would be from GOES-18, but because Hawaii needs one as radar is down a GOES-19 sector was allocated instead. The second GOES-19 sector was allocated to PTC 9 and South Carolina. So if radar in Kauai didn't go down we may have had a meso sector over Humberto.

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2084/et3NZ4.gif

that's a lot of lightning in the W eyewall.

[Kazmit]

Looking beastly compared to last night, the CDO has thickened a lot on the west side. The slight shear must have relaxed. Could be making a run for cat 5 now.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1971934896596676683

[Travorum]

That is a very warm eye:

[Zonacane]

Looks like I was wrong about that ERC last night, Humberto certainly looks like a category 5 this morning. Humberto reminds me a lot of the way Dorian looked.

[Beef Stew]

Man, I wish we had recon in this storm. I understand 9/future Imelda takes priority, but still. I’m convinced this storm is making a run at category 5 and I’m sure I speak for all of us when I say I’d love to see what some center passes would find…

[zzzh]

The meso sector finally comes in.