NATL: IMELDA - Models

[Category5Kaiju]

0z icon
https://i.postimg.cc/d30XRCY6/floop-icon-2025092600-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif

Saw the mainland and immediately chickened out.

Haha, I'm going to head towards the CONUS and then...oh wait, shoot, is that SOUTH CAROLINA? Nope, bye-bye.

That run literally has this system acting like a sentient being lol. Also, in all seriousness, that almost due southeast track in that particular location is something else, usually storms there head west, northwest, north, or northeast.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs landfall myrtle beach, same place as 18z, just slightly stronger this run.

[LarryWx]

0Z: So far, similar to 12Z with GFS hitting Myrtle Beach while Icon, CMC, and UKMET again all Fujiwara 94L safely OTS

JMA only goes out to 72 at 0Z…so, can’t tell much

Euro is next

—————-

0Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.5N 76.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 48 22.5N 76.7W 1004 39
1200UTC 28.09.2025 60 24.8N 76.1W 1003 41
0000UTC 29.09.2025 72 25.6N 76.6W 1000 42
1200UTC 29.09.2025 84 26.5N 77.1W 999 40
0000UTC 30.09.2025 96 27.3N 77.3W 997 43
1200UTC 30.09.2025 108 27.3N 77.3W 995 43
0000UTC 01.10.2025 120 27.1N 75.4W 992 44
1200UTC 01.10.2025 132 27.3N 73.5W 989 44
0000UTC 02.10.2025 144 28.8N 70.0W 984 52
1200UTC 02.10.2025 156 30.8N 65.1W 979 69
0000UTC 03.10.2025 168 34.6N 57.8W 972 76

[chaser1]

0z icon
https://i.postimg.cc/d30XRCY6/floop-icon-2025092600-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif

ICON be like -
The food coming out of the new Steak burger Food Truck smells amazing, until we see 3 cockroaches sitting directly on the order window menu! NOPE, WE'RE OUT

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro much different vs prior Euros

[Stratton23]

Euro stalls out 94L inland, potential big time rain makwr in the carolinas

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro stalls for 48 hours just offshore SC/GA before turning back WNW into Beaufort, SC and not til Thu night!

[chaser1]

If NAM is the very worse model for tropical cyclone forecast accuracy, then tossing in a binary tropical twin into the mix can only be that much more fun to consider. Actually, 0Z NAM seems pretty on point. Delayed development until a weak TD forms just S.E. of Andros. Then, slowly strengthens and slowly crawls NNE to just east of Grand Bahama. Meanwhile, Humberto is closing the gap and deepening, and then passing north of 91L's latitude and shouts "Hold my beer"

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS: 29 of 50 hit SE US with ~10-11 as hurricanes

[chaser1]

Larry, you ever notice a EURO run that does what tonight's 0Z does LOL??
Approaches S. Carolina coast but then stops and moves southeast.... just to turn right around and steamroll back to the northwest and make landfall

[skillz305]

[kevin]

06z ICON still shows 94L being dragged behind Humberto, most likely OTS. Ends the run at +120hr as a strengthening 960mb hurricane.

[BobHarlem]

6z gfs

[Kohlecane]

0Z Euro stalls for 48 hours just offshore SC/GA before turning back WNW into Beaufort, SC and not til Thu night!

Oh wonderful

[BobHarlem]

ensembles
0z euro ensembles:


deep mind:

[TampaWxLurker]

Literal fork in the road on models, still.

I really don't begrudge NHC on how they display the track when this gets tagged as a PTC/named.

[cycloneye]

Cat 2 on HAFS-B as it approaches the Carolinas coast.

[Blown Away]

Guidance continues wanting 94L to immediately begin moving NW and position keeps adjusting west. Moving into E Cuba or just S of E Cuba is possible.

[Travorum]

Looking only at the operational models, it seems with the recent trends GFS is just about alone when it comes to showing a clean landfall. Icon, CMC, UKMET, and Euro-AI all show binary interaction pulling 94L away from the coast before landfall, and the Euro shows a stall off the coast before moving in. This largely comes down to forward speed, with the GFS showing a slightly faster 94L being pulled north by a stronger trough. As for the ensembles its pretty evenly split between landfall, stall, and being pulled behind Humberto, with Euro and GFS ensembles showing a greater preference for a landfall scenario, while CMC and AI ensembles are split between a stall and OTS scenario.

So long story short, we're about three and a half days out from a potential US landfall and not even sure its going to happen.