NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Sciencerocks]

[Ptarmigan]

It has passed Katrina!!!

At this point, it could eclipse Allen.

[Owasso]

161kt in NE eyewall Dropsonde

[cheezyWXguy]

Benchmark. Wilma was a beast.

https://i.ibb.co/jPS5yG6K/IEQe-XHUmkg4-x-Y4-Bplh-M9-Rmiq-SXY3acg-Wv-SUXcjbb-YAz-PK9-ZZAe-ISZax-Hmk-Kn-S2-ELFsb-Ddak-CMo-Ak-Sd.jpg

By winds and pressure, agreed. By appearance I think Melissa wins. This is Wilma in the same IR color scale TT uses

[CrazyC83]

161kt in NE eyewall Dropsonde

I'd consider that legit personally with this satellite signature. I'd issue a TCU with a 160 kt intensity.

[Fancy1002]

I’m hearing people say 161 kt at the surface and 899 Millibar, can anyone confirm that?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8223/xwIV2B.gif

Last few frames show it expanding in size.

[Owasso]

VDM

[CrazyC83]

I’m hearing people say 161 kt at the surface and 899 Millibar, can anyone confirm that?

An eyewall dropsonde had surface winds of 161 kt, and a pressure in the eye calculated at 900 mb (902 mb / 22 kt of surface winds).

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/aNGOkJf.png https://i.imgur.com/G7rDKGe.png https://i.imgur.com/21uNj8K.png https://i.imgur.com/n1XxJo7.png https://i.imgur.com/1IYwggc.png

https://roiapi.dapiya.top/roi/page

What more does it need to be, ti be 'annular"?

A convective structure with virtually no outer banding, just a donut core. Melissa certainly has a donut core, but outer banding is much too prominent. More likely to see a structure like that in the open Atlantic than the Caribbean. See Isabel ‘03 as the textbook example.

[Stormgodess]

Can we expect an increase in storm surge forcasts for Mellisa as she strengthens? I realize topography plays a huge role, but I can't help but remember Katrina's 20ft + surge in Mississippi and wonder if 13ft for Melissa is lacking?

[Fancy1002]

I’m hearing people say 161 kt at the surface and 899 Millibar, can anyone confirm that?

An eyewall dropsonde had surface winds of 161 kt, and a pressure in the eye calculated at 900 mb (902 mb / 22 kt of surface winds).

From what I am seeing, it’s 899.8, which yes is rounded up to 900, but you could still consider sub 900 technically.

[CrazyC83]

Can we expect an increase in storm surge forcasts for Mellisa as she strengthens? I realize topography plays a huge role, but I can't help but remember Katrina's 20ft + surge in Mississippi and wonder if 13ft for Melissa is lacking?

Katrina was much larger in size though, especially after the ERC. Now, if Melissa misses Jamaica, goes into an ERC and expands out, then that could be a major issue for Cuba. That is what happened in 1932.

[Fancy1002]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

[dukeblue219]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

Know what for sure? There's always nagging interest in one... more... pass!

[KirbyDude25]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

The TCPOD lists it as being on station until 5:30Z, or about 75 minutes from now, and it's turning westward on Flightradar24. To me, that suggests it's going in for one more pass

[Travorum]

Again this doesn't mean anything as Melissa's intensity is well below what it's appearance would suggest, but ADT CI# just hit 8.5 for the first time ever in the Atlantic:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 034020 UTC
Lat : 16:37:12 N Lon : 78:30:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.5 / 871.5mb/185.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.5 8.6 8.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

[Tekken_Guy]

All I want to know is if Melissa will join the 800 club or not.

[Jr0d]

161kts is about 185mph.

That in my amatuer is a reasonable estimation of max sustained surface winds, especially given all the other information.

Even if the drop measured a gust, no reason to believe there are not sustained winds that high reaching the surface.

[Fancy1002]

Please tell me recon is going to do one last pass. It can’t leave without us knowing for sure.

Know what for sure? There's always nagging interest in one... more... pass!

To know for sure whether it is reached sub 900 pressure. Even if it falls below to 899 or 898 over the next 30 minutes to an hour, it could start to rise before the next recon mission gets there. I would prefer that we have direct evidence rather than speculations.