CrazyC83 wrote:Stormgodess wrote:Can we expect an increase in storm surge forcasts for Mellisa as she strengthens? I realize topography plays a huge role, but I can't help but remember Katrina's 20ft + surge in Mississippi and wonder if 13ft for Melissa is lacking?
Katrina was much larger in size though, especially after the ERC. Now, if Melissa misses Jamaica, goes into an ERC and expands out, then that could be a major issue for Cuba. That is what happened in 1932.
Also the shallow water off the coast in Mississippi enhances storm surge where Jamaica has deep water offshore. They will have much higher waves hitting the coast however, resulting in much worse erosion. The bays of Jamaica that will see onshore winds( the right side of Melissa on the south coast)however can see much more extreme surge as the water will pile in with no where to go but up.
That is my understanding of storm surge, but I am not an expert.
Another factor is elevation, the elevation rises quickly in Jamaica making most residential areas high enough to not worry about it, even those less than a mile from the shore, unfortunately landslides will be a major concern because of this.
If you look at Mississippi and Louisiana, you can be 10 miles from the shore, but still less than 10' above sea level in some areas, making them vulnerable to extreme surge.
