NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[cheezyWXguy]

-80c ring trying to thicken back toward the immediate eyewall. Almost feels like we’re watching it breathe as the ring expands and contracts.

[zzzh]

903mb 11kt.

[Owasso]

903mb with 11kts

[CrazyC83]

903mb 11kt.

Supports 902 mb. Looks like it is stabilizing.

[Hurricane2022]

She may have stabilized at 155 kt/900 mb. I wouldn't rule a bit more strengthening but i'm thinking Meli has reached her maximum.

[mrbagyo]

162 FL
Didn't enter the eye and veered SE

Sure they did. The winds went to near zero then they popped out.

ay yeah they did.
903 dropsonde

[Jr0d]

043630 1642N 07830W 6971 02271 //// +210 //// 279027 036 018 003 05

When we got 902.8mb earlier the height was 2308m @697.2mb

Now we are 2271m @ 697.1mb, J believe that also supports about a 900mb syrface pressure.

[sasha_B]

She may have stabilized at 155 kt/900 mb. I wouldn't rule a bit more strengthening but i'm thinking Meli has reached her maximum.

This is a realistic & reasonable assessment, and could well be Melissa's peak on the TCR. There was no further deepening on the last pass, though, so my guess is we get 150 kt / 902 hPa on the 06z advisory, at most.

[Fancy1002]

Where’s Wxman by the way, I would love to hear his thoughts on Melissa?

[Hayabusa]

ADT reaching a CI of 8.5 @185 kts

2025OCT28 034020 8.5 871.5 185.0 8.5 8.6 8.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.17 -81.36 EYE 15 IR 37.7 16.62 78.51 ARCHER GOES19 19.8
2025OCT28 041020 8.5 871.5 185.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.39 -81.03 EYE 14 IR 37.7 16.67 78.49 ARCHER GOES19 19.9

[Hurricane2022]

CDO seems to be cooling a bit again

[Teban54]

If Melissa can stabilize in its current state until landfall in Jamaica - and that's a pretty big if - it can easily break records for most intense landfalling pressures.

Wikipedia has a list of pressure records by peak and landfall. Maintaining its current, official pressure of 903 mb would make Melissa the 4th most intense landfall, only behind 1935 Labor Day (892 mb), Gilbert (900 mb) and Camille (900 mb).

In all likelihood, some weaking is quite likely. But Melissa can weaken all the way up to 918 mb (a difference of 15 mb from now) and still join the list of the 10 most intense landfalls.

In the event that Melissa somehow strengthens further and achieves sub-900 until landfall... Not only would it become the 7th recorded sub-900 mb storm anywhere, but it would also become only the second ever sub-900 mb landfall.


Note: The screenshot below is sorted by landfall pressure, so the peak pressure column is unsorted.

[Fancy1002]

Melissa broke it’s dry eye record again, and then again shortly after.

[Teban54]

AF301 has left.

Next recon schedules, all in EDT:

• AF: Departure 5am, fix 7:30 am
• NOAA: Departure 4am, fix 8am

Now I better catch some sleep...

[Teban54]

[WaveBreaking]

Another one of my homemade GeoColor images

[SFLcane]

Nothing short of gut wrenching to see this unfold just seeing some of those hafs model solutions come to realization. My sincere prayers to those in the path of this generational storm. Some areas were this thing hits will be unrecognizable. Wind gusts in higher elevations could easily top 200 mph!

[HurricaneRyan]

I don't see this weakening enough to get below Category 5 when it hits Jamaica.

Pray for Jamaica.

[grapealcoholic]

back to deepening.. cloud tops gradient/contours getting smoother

895 next pass

she's going to bottom out -- close to mpi (sub 880)

[mrbagyo]

AWS are more numerous on the Eastern Part of Jamaica