NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

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While everyone is sleeping, or taking a nap, I just wanted to give a quick shout out to all the men and women who contributed with improving the weather computer modeling quality over the years. Hurricane Melissa is the latest example of how their hard work has increased forecaster’s confidence and provided the general public with sufficient lead time to prepare for such extreme storms such as this.

[kevin]

The last recon pass still showed no signs of double-wind maxima and the eye drop had 95%+ RH all the way to the surface. Melissa has been a category 5 hurricane for 23 hours so far and it might remain one until landfall in another 10 hours. This would make Melissa the longest-duration cat 5 since Irma. And the only reason it'll weaken is because, with likely catastrophic consequences, Jamaica is 'in its way'. I don't think I've ever seen such a long-duration cat 5 with no EWRC. Whether it's the shear being just high enough to prevent an EWRC or just Melissa's extremely stable core, she's a one-of-a-kind storm.

[kevin]

With landfall less than 12 hours away, it's also becoming more likely that Melissa will be added to this list. The most intense Atlantic hurricane landfalls.

892 mb - Labor Day - 1932
900 mb - Gilbert - 1988
900 mb - Camille - 1969
905 mb - Dean - 2007
910 mb - Cuba 1924 - 1924
910 mb - Dorian - 2019
914 mb - Janet - 1955
914 mb - Irma - 2017
918 mb - Cuba 1932 - 1932
919 mb - Michael - 2018

[Hammy]

eye looks like it's starting to destabilize some over the last few hours, could be a weakening trend

[Hurrilurker]

Picking up speed fast, weird after seeing it just crawl in the area for days. That's probably a good thing for Jamaica, don't want it sitting there long.

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.imgur.com/AwQL9Dt.gif

eye looks like it's starting to destabilize some over the last few hours, could be a weakening trend

alternatively, mesos which it's in the process of integrating

cdo looks impressive

[michelinj]

Can't see any evidence of the NOAA plane taking off yet, and it should have an hour ago. Hopefully it's on the way and just not reporting. At worst if it doesn't go at least we have the AF plane which should leave any minute.

[grapealcoholic]

nhc discussion mentions a second eyewall

better complete quick

[michelinj]

nhc discussion mentions a second eyewall

better complete quick

Yeah last few frames of satellite looks like something's going on near the eye. Saw it yesterday but it took mere hours to sort itself out before deepening again. Let's hope this EWRC if it is one gets disrupted by land influence

[aspen]

No sign of either recon plane taking off yet. What’s going on?

[grapealcoholic]

the thermodynamics & convective activity at play right now mean any structural changes complete very quickly

building a strong base for one final intensification round maybe, if it has time

[michelinj]

No sign of either recon plane taking off yet. What’s going on?

Yeah I'm not sure, they don't have loads of time before it'll start getting influenced by land too

[Stormybajan]

To watch Melissa hit those upper echelon heights yesterday into overnight will definitely be something all weather enthusiasts wont forget. Sadly, Melissa will probably be a hurricane everyone on the island of Jamaica wont forget either, 175 mph and 901 mb is disgustingly strong!! Especially for a storm of relatively small size to have such a deep pressure..7th strongest of alltime!!! Truthfully the CDO with the full pink ring yesterday , could have an argument for top 1-3 tropical appearances in this basin over the last 40 years!! Last year's strongest was 895 mb then followed up with 901mb...nasty work!

[cycloneye]

Another eyewall merger.

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1983105209099575364

[aspen]

It’s now almost 2 hours since the first recon flight was supposed to take off, and still nothing on either Tropical Tidbits or Cyclonicwx. Hopefully they didn’t cancel both flights for some reason. This needs coverage in its last several hours before landfall.

The 5am discussion says both flights are expected to head out this morning, so idk what’s going on.

[kevin]

Flightaware now mentions that NOAA42 is expected to depart in 20 minutes. Perhaps something is wrong with the other planes and NOAA42 is going again instead. I don't know, all we can do is wait and see.

[tolakram]

It’s now almost 2 hours since the first recon flight was supposed to take off, and still nothing on either Tropical Tidbits or Cyclonicwx. Hopefully they didn’t cancel both flights for some reason. This needs coverage in its last several hours before landfall.

The 5am discussion says both flights are expected to head out this morning, so idk what’s going on.

I imagine the goal is to be in the storm as close to landfall as possible.

[Hammy]

Another eyewall merger.

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1983105209099575364

and consistent with satellite, the eye is clearing out and stabilized once again

[Beef Stew]

What an absolutely historic storm. I’m simultaneously mesmerized in awe and also sick to my stomach knowing the lives this will invariably take in Jamaica and Cuba…

[aspen]

It’s now almost 2 hours since the first recon flight was supposed to take off, and still nothing on either Tropical Tidbits or Cyclonicwx. Hopefully they didn’t cancel both flights for some reason. This needs coverage in its last several hours before landfall.

The 5am discussion says both flights are expected to head out this morning, so idk what’s going on.

I imagine the goal is to be in the storm as close to landfall as possible.

They’d be cutting it incredibly close if the info about NOAA42 leaving shortly is correct. Maybe something’s wrong with the other NOAA plane like Kevin suggested. Both planes probably took quite a beating yesterday.