NATL: IMELDA - Models

[BobHarlem]

6z hurricane models all somewhere in the cat 2 range
6z HWRF landfall near Myrtle Beach (Then goes into w nc)

6z HMON landfall near Georgetown (also stalls around nc/tn border)

6z HAFS-a landfall near Hilton Head

6z HAFS-b landfall near Charleston

[ronjon]

The 06Z hurricane models are trending slightly faster and stronger. HWRF shifted 50 miles west w landfall near Myrtle Beach SC near 5 pm Monday and now 969 mb. HMON near Charleston SC at 2 pm Monday at 983 mb. HAFS-A just north of Savannah GA at 1am Tuesday at 983 mb and HAFS-B just north of Savannah near midnight Tuesday at 976 mb.

PS - I see Bob beat me to it.

[cycloneye]

The 12z suite.

[Travorum]

The 0z experimental HAFS-M (multistorm) model shows little to no binary interaction and still has 94L making landfall in South Carolina. It will be interesting to see how well this model verifies, especially compared to the individual HAFS models.



Some information about the model from Andy Hazelton:
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1971152756242034795



Link to the model viewer (select HAFS-M): https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/viewer/

[Blown Away]

Looking at the 18z yesterday, the HMON has had it right since with the COC relocation to the W.

[LarryWx]

Larry, you ever notice a EURO run that does what tonight's 0Z does LOL??
Approaches S. Carolina coast but then stops and moves southeast.... just to turn right around and steamroll back to the northwest and make landfall

Not that I can recall.

Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Larry, you ever notice a EURO run that does what tonight's 0Z does LOL??
Approaches S. Carolina coast but then stops and moves southeast.... just to turn right around and steamroll back to the northwest and make landfall

Not that I can recall.

Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US.

I dont think it is as much strength as it is location. If 94L is further north then the influence changes. If it is more south it will influence it more by pulling it SE which could let it escape out. That's why the faster models show landfall and some of the slower models did not

[Teban54]

6z ECMWF, compared to 0z, shows a much weaker landfall but followed by a stall in western NC, the region that was hit the hardest by Helene.

[cycloneye]

Wow, over 12 inches of rain for the Carolinas is forecasting Euro at 06Z run.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Interesting that the HWRF model relocates the center northward between 15z and 18z we should be seeing if that verifies shortly. Still looks broad but getting it's act together with the mid and lower levels moving in tandem. Also the HWRF has the furthest N solution and strongest storm.

Be an interesting afternoon for model watching.

[BobHarlem]

6z ensembles
deep mind shifted pretty far left, only a handful out to sea now.


6z euro ensembles

[tolakram]

I'm rooting for the ICON just because it seems to negate any landfall, but I can't imagine it will be correct.

[dexterlabio]

I don't really follow the ATL basin that much but I'm interested in the cases of classic Fujiwara effect between two hurricanes in this part of the world. The examples that I often see are those from the Western Pacific, but with future Imelda and Humberto there is a chance of having one for the Atlantic. Although the latest model runs do not show the "dancing TCs" scenario, yet.

[TampaWxLurker]

12z Icon continues to be weak and meandering around the central & northern Bahamas thru 60 hours. A touch weaker than some recent runs, at 1001mb.

Edit: Slower on this run and weaker. Only barely north of the Bahamas at +75 hours, 998mb. Maybe Humberto tugging at it, slowing it down.

[Travorum]

So far through 120 hours the 12z ICON sticks to its guns with Humberto Fujiwhara-ing 94L southeast before it can make landfall, it has 94L deepening into the 950s so far.

[TampaWxLurker]

The Fujiwhara solution the Icon is adamant about seems to be dependant on 94L moving thru the Bahamas slow enough for Humberto to catch up to it in latitude, and then their do-si-do dance can start. Whereas the GFS, Euro, etc have 94L plowing thru the Bahamas and hitting the Carolinas before Humberto can catch up.

[Travorum]

The Fujiwhara solution the Icon is adamant about seems to be dependant on 94L moving thru the Bahamas slow enough for Humberto to catch up to it in latitude, and then their do-si-do dance can start. Whereas the GFS, Euro, etc have 94L plowing thru the Bahamas and hitting the Carolinas before Humberto can catch up.

Yep, by the time ICON takes 94L North of the Bahamas the GFS has it over the Appalachian mountains. It's hard to buy ICON's solution right now when it has such a discrepancy in forward speed.

[TampaWxLurker]

12z GFS a bit slower this run, but still takes it into SC, around Isle of Palms, strong Cat 1/weak Cat 2, 978mb at +90 hrs.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Charleston early Tuesday morning

[Teban54]

Looks like the slowdown on 12z GFS (compared to its own runs earlier) makes things even more problematic, as it (1) gives 94L more time to strengthen before landfall, and (2) allows for a more explicit stall due to shorter distance to Humberto, while maintaining higher intensity and thus rainfall potential during the stall.