NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[NotoSans]

Looks like no more recon. NOAA plane is now above operational level. AF has stopped transmitting and is too far from the storm now.

[StormPyrate]

Incredible how powerful this will be for SW Jamaica.

Does anyone have any webcams or storm chasers who are trying to post live in the core of the storm as it approaches?

It seems many have already gone down. Cell failure of one carrier has taken down a few.

the only one I can still find is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpE7rs9Nkg8

[edu2703]

Very strong winds on the webcam in Treasure Beach: https://www.youtube.com/live/z2HfoQ_HMfY

[StormPyrate]

Northern Jog

[tolakram]

STAY ON TOPIC please.

[CrazyC83]

This is a sick feeling knowing that so many people lie in the path of this monster. Jamaica will never be the same.

[Beef Stew]

The next recon we'll be getting looks to be once Melissa is between Jamaica and Cuba. Until then, it's just going to be surface observations. Landfall looks to be coming up quickly.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983181787473031335

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Very strong winds on the webcam in Treasure Beach: https://www.youtube.com/live/z2HfoQ_HMfY

Oh my goodness. Pray for Jamaica folks.

[Beef Stew]

This is a sick feeling knowing that so many people lie in the path of this monster. Jamaica will never be the same.

I'm afraid this is going to be Jamaica's Maria. I'm just hoping that the compact windfield minimizes damage to the most densely populated centers on the eastern half of the island. It's going to be terrible regardless...

[Teban54]

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

Not what’s the G limit, what is G limit, the term?

G-force is a measure of force per unit mass exerted on an object, in terms of standard gravity. For example, if you're standing on the ground, you experience 1.0 G upward, which cancels out the 1G of gravity and allows you to be stationary.

In aviation, it's commonly used to describe the load factor, which describes the upward force exerted on the aircraft in terms of g-forces. In straight and level flight, you're usually experiencing 1 G. Aircrafts making a turn (banking) usually increases the load factor required to maintain level flight, which is why you, as a passenger, may feel that you're "pushed" into your seat in the process. When the aircraft experiences turbulence, the load factor often fluctuates.

Each aircraft is rated for a maximum load factor, which specifies the maximum force that an aircraft can be subject to. Forces above this certified limit are unsafe, and can result in mechanical failures or even breaking up of the aircraft. Some standard values are listed here.

With the kind of wild elevation changes that the AF plane experienced in Melissa's eye, the aircraft was almost certainly experiencing intermittent or oscillating load factors higher than it was certified for. An inspection of the aircraft would likely be needed to see if they did any damage.

This is also why it would be a bad idea to go in for a second pass immediately: if the high G-forces already accelerated metal fatigue, the airframe could have already been made more fragile, which would increase the risk of a second pass even if the first pass turned out okay.

[tallywx]

Interesting that the NOAA plane flew all the way there just to make one pass. Some operational tolerance must have been exceeded.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Josh Morgerman is around here for reference:

See arrow.

[AnnularCane]

892mb/160kt it is. Unreal.

MIATCUAT3

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...

Don't see that in an advisory too often.

[tallywx]

Josh Morgerman is around here for reference:
https://i.imgur.com/9tM5Voe.jpeg
See arrow.

The current northward jog may cause him to miss the calm eye unless it wobbles back. We need his data for perhaps the lowest ground MSLP report in the Atlantic basin.

[GCANE]

VDM from Kermit as he heads back to the barn

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:46:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.69N 78.05W
B. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (136 km) to the WSW (254°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,170m (7,119ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 895mb (26.43 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 7kts (From the E at 8mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 160kts (From the ENE at 184.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix at 13:44:19Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 279° at 172kts (From the W at 197.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the S (173°) of center fix at 13:51:06Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,391m (11,125ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)

[GCANE]

Eyewall now on shore

[Travorum]

Comment from the VDM:

EXPERIENCED SEVERE TURBULENCE INBOUND FROM SE AND EYEWALL HAD SAWTOOTH APPEARANCE ON ALL SIDES BUT NW

[ScottNAtlanta]

892mb/160kt it is. Unreal.

MIATCUAT3

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...

Don't see that in an advisory too often.

This is a prolonged F5 tornado in effect.

[CrazyC83]

Every wobble matters now for towns along the coast and inland. It could be the difference between a severe hurricane hit (say, cat 2 conditions) and obliteration (the eyewall and cat 5 conditions).