NATL: IMELDA - Models

[SFLcane]

If the gfs keeps trending the way it is, parts of FL east coast could receive rain bands from this. It seems each run gets closer to coast which may help the Carolinas

Indeed! Early 00z shift about 50 miles W from 18z. Getting very close now for impacts on the eastcoast.

Close shave with florida and out.

[shah83]

I wonder what happens if future imelda is ever slower and further west...does the fujiwara still happen to our advantage?

[AxaltaRacing24]

this thing gets closer to florida on every single run. it’s subtle, but it’s there.

[SFLcane]

this thing gets closer to florida on every single run. it’s subtle, but it’s there.

[LarryWx]

0Z JMA at 72 (limit for 0Z) implies later absorption by the much stronger pretty nearby Humberto

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC.

Edit: But CMC later does turn N and hit E MA!

[Weathertracker96]

this thing gets closer to florida on every single run. it’s subtle, but it’s there.

https://i.postimg.cc/g2b2Ffm3/fffff.gif

Even some of the ensembles for the GFS have moved left. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[CycloysisNegative]

No US landfall on 0z gfs, although it barely dodges Bermuda on the way out.

It then doubles back and smacks it from the east!

[CycloysisNegative]

Just to keep things interesting, the euro ai has Imelda make landfall in southern SC

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro stays away from the US.

[cycloneye]

GFS slightly closer to the east coast of Florida in trend of past three runs.

[Beef Stew]

If this really does stall and stay offshore, it will be a massive win for the ICON (and UKMet) which have been more or less set on this solution for the past couple of days.

[tolakram]

... and now the Euro AI makes landfall.



or not?

[cycloneye]

... and now the Euro AI makes landfall.



or not?

At the end, yes it makes landfall.

[cycloneye]

The AI ensembles have landfall.

[caneman]

The AI ensembles have landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/JhKXBnG.jpeg

Another 30 to 50 miles west and SE Florida will get some pretty good effects.

[Travorum]

06z ICON agrees to meet 06z GFS in the middle and both take the system north of Florida before heading east towards Bermuda. Now its the AI models that are more confident on a landfall scenario.

[cycloneye]

06z EURO AIFS after twits and turns, makes landfall in Outerbanks and goes up to Virginia.

[Travorum]

0z HAFS multistorm pulls 9L east similar to ICON and GFS, gets down into the 960s and goes just south of Bermuda

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just based on the latest trends with the GFS, the overall probability of Humberto tugging it away from mainland USA is going up; but the impacts to far Eastern Florida and the Bahamas appear to be growing.

[ronjon]

The 06z hurricane dynamic models now all show an OTS scenario except HMON. Looks like nearly all models now showing no US landfall and an OTS scenario. Good news for the Carolinas.