NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Jr0d]

Its been a long week and still Melissa has yet to hit Bermuda as her finale.

I was in shock when I saw the pressure and winds Tuesday. Maybe in the future with atorms like this we can have a separate thread dedicated to documenting the storm destruction and recovery efforts.

I have seen evidence of trees being debarked already with relatively limited pictures from "ground zero". I imagine this will be widespread. In the past with extreme hurricanes this only happens over a small area. Andrew and Michael are storms where this was documented but over a relatively small area.

[Nuno]

Definitely a MH again- don't know why the NHC didn't upgrade it at 8am.

Email them and ask.

Who would be best to reach out and ask?

[Kazmit]

A shame the Bermuda radar is down.

[Nuno]

A shame the Bermuda radar is down.

Really unfortunate timing.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

A shame the Bermuda radar is down.

Really unfortunate timing.

Been about a year.

[tolakram]

Definitely a MH again- don't know why the NHC didn't upgrade it at 8am.

Email them and ask.

Who would be best to reach out and ask?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/contact.shtml

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Ironically, Melissa's appearance started degrading immediately after the advisory.

https://i.imgur.com/cYOJnxz.gif

Wow she's just like, freaking dying

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

My guess is there was a secondary peak around 1200Z, and since then it has been weakening pretty quickly. Probably becomes ET sometime tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting. CrazyC83, what do you think about this?

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984013949323329983

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Getting windy. Wish the radar was working.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Sustained winds of about 36 knots: https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.a ... SITE&user=

(NMB site is at elevation, maybe 20-30 meters, but the airport ones are more like 6-8 meters)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This page has complete obs (wind, pressure, etc) from the airport over the last 24 hours. Pressure falling quickly now.

https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.a ... 24HR&user=

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video on Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdrHT6jig1Q

[HurricaneRyan]

Looks like Melissa is ready to make her exit and join her Mom and grandma in retirement.

[ncforecaster89]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how - up to now - I would update the BT for Melissa, adding the post-Jamaica track. A full explanation will come after becoming ET. That said, two landfalls in the Bahamas have been added on Long Island and San Salvador Island.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.7N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,
20251028, 2200, R, HU, 18.7N, 77.4W, 95, 955,
20251029, 0000, , HU, 18.9N, 77.2W, 100, 954,
20251029, 0600, , HU, 19.8N, 76.3W, 105, 951,
20251029, 0715, L, HU, 20.0N, 76.1W, 105, 950,
20251029, 1200, , HU, 20.9N, 75.8W, 75, 972,
20251029, 1800, , HU, 22.1N, 75.3W, 80, 974,
20251029, 2130, L, HU, 22.5N, 75.0W, 85, 971,
20251030, 0000, , HU, 23.5N, 74.8W, 90, 969,
20251030, 0200, L, HU, 24.0N, 74.5W, 90, 967,

Hi Crazy, I’m in complete agreement that there was likely a 10 kt differential between its peak around 1330-1400z and landfall at 1700z. The only difference is that I’d set the aforementioned peak intensity at 165 kt/892 mb and landfall intensity at 155 kt/899 mb.

The meteorological reasoning:

Reconnaissance aircraft released a dropsonde that recorded a lowest central pressure of 892 mb at 1302z. The next (and last) pass through the eye found that the pressure was up 2 mb to 894 mb, but measured the peak 700 mb FLW of 172 kt at 1346z. These in-situ observations coincided with Melissa’s most impressive satellite presentation and this was reflected on the various satellite intensity estimates. The CIMSS-ADT analyzed the peak at 1410z, for one such example.

From that point, there was a significant and obvious warming of cloud tops within the CDO…which was most pronounced in the eyewall convection…that occurred during those remaining 3 hours from Melissa’s peak through landfall of the center at 1700z. Furthermore, the eye was certainly filling and losing definition/symmetry and was already beginning to close prior to that time. As we’ve seen in numerous cases, these high-end category five hurricanes typically weaken much more quickly than one that has a larger starting RMW. The CIMSS-ADT analyzed a 7 mb filling from 1400z to landfall and it’s conceivable it may have risen a little further than that.

Assessing the Intensity:

The 172 kt FLWs equate to 155 kt at the surface using the standard 90% conversion factor.

The 188 kt WL150 wind obs equate to 156 kt after applying the typical 83% conversion rate.

These data show, as would be expected, that there was a very efficient mixing rate of FLWs to the surface. As such, and given the possibility that there may have been stronger winds in the NE portion of the eyewall, I’d increase the MSW peak intensity from the current operational estimate of 160 kt to 165 kt. One important thing to note, we’re assuming RECON would’ve potentially measured higher FLWs in the unsampled NE quadrant but there’s no way to know if that would’ve been true. In many prior case, where an intensifying high-end hurricane was moving in a general NE’erly direction, the maximum wind speeds were actually located in the SE quadrant of the eyewall. Even so, and taking all the available data into consideration, I feel 165 kt/892 mb is the most accurate estimation of this historic hurricane’s extraordinary peak strength.

Landfall:

Unfortunately, and understandably, there was no additional direct sampling of Melissa’s eye or eyewall (by RECON) after 1350z for obvious safety reasons. Consequently, we’re left with a far more subjective interpretation of how much weakening may have transpired between 1400z and 1700z.

As noted above, CIMSS-ADT analyzed a 7 mb rise in the central pressure over that span. However, If the aforementioned 2 mb differential in pressure between the last two RECON observations (45 minutes apart) is more accurate, from 1302z onwards, that’d equate to about 901 mb at landfall. And, it’s also possible that the filling rate may have increased given the notable satellite degradation from its peak.

Taking all the aforementioned into account, I’d set the landfall intensity at a somewhat uncertain 155 kt/899 mb. I’ll conclude by saying that no matter what one may determine, themselves, it’s virtually impossible to argue that Melissa retained its peak strength through landfall and/or it was actually still intensifying at that time.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1984013949323329983

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1983962354284102000

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/GerWeather/status/1983665166488305808

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1984016736098849123