NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane2000]

Some images for posterity:

https://i.ibb.co/xtDfStLw/VIS202509271708.webp
https://i.ibb.co/pvH6rTZ5/IR-OTT202509271708.webp
https://i.ibb.co/35Qfwk7K/IR-BD202509271708.webp

Those images are incredible! Where did you find them?

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1972025331482874105



Despite no recon, I think you can make a good case for Humberto being the second cat 5 of the 2025 Atlantic season.

[zhukm29]

Some images for posterity:

https://i.ibb.co/xtDfStLw/VIS202509271708.webp
https://i.ibb.co/pvH6rTZ5/IR-OTT202509271708.webp
https://i.ibb.co/35Qfwk7K/IR-BD202509271708.webp

Those images are incredible! Where did you find them?

Don't know the exact source, but I saw them while scrolling in a weather server I'm in and I found them too good not to share.

[WaveBreaking]

[zhukm29]

What an incredible hurricane...

[aspen]

What an incredible hurricane...
https://i.postimg.cc/1z1nPnmr/goes19-dvorak-g19meso2-8.gif

The eye looks like it’s warmed a little more in recent frames.

[zhukm29]

[zhukm29]

[Ubuntwo]

Raw 7.0/final 6.8 on ADT.

[zhukm29]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2025 Time : 201019 UTC
Lat : 22:52:12 N Lon : 60:58:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 928.5mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +21.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES19
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.2 degrees

[zhukm29]

TAFB just came in at 140kts:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/fal082025.dat

AL, 08, 202509271800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2280N, 6060W, , 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, SK, VI, 1, 7070 /////, , , GOES19, CSC, T,

So what does this mean? Is there a higher chance of seeing the NHC go for the 5?

The blend of SAB/ADT/TAFB CURRENTLY support a blend of 135kts. If ADT can get up to 7.0 by 5pm they will likely pull the trigger. Even if ADT stays at 6.8 or lower they may pull the trigger at 5 pm because the most recent microwave pass was really impressive, and that depiction is only associated with upper echelon hurricanes.

Looks like we got 7.0 raw, 6.8 final on ADT... now we wait for the advisory to see what the NHC does.

[Travorum]

Category 5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

...HUMBERTO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES

[zhukm29]

Back to back NATL seasons with multiple C5s! This is the first time this has happened I believe.

[Travorum]

Back to back NATL seasons with multiple C5s! This is the first time this has happened I believe.

I checked earlier today and 1932-1933 is the only other instance.

[zhukm29]

Back to back NATL seasons with multiple C5s! This is the first time this has happened I believe.

I checked earlier today and 1932-1933 is the only other instance.

Ah yes, good catch. In the satellite era this is definitely the first though.

[Teban54]

Forecast to peak at 145 kt in 12 hours, and stay as a Cat 5 for 24 hours.

[Travorum]

The NHC is also forecasting some possible additional strengthening up to 145kts, subject to an EWRC or other internal factors.

Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Internal factors
like eyewall replacement cycles will likely dominate Humberto's
intensity for the next day or two, so fluctuations in maximum wind
speeds are expected.

---

INIT 27/2100Z 22.9N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W 135 KT 155 MPH

[MarioProtVI]

The mad lads actually did it. Wow. Humberto avenges Sam.

[aspen]

They did it. First satellite-only operational Cat 5 since Lorenzo.

Crazy that we’re not even at 10 storms and we’ve got two Cat 5s. It’s really been all or nothing this season lol.

[zzzh]

They did it. First satellite-only operational Cat 5 since Lorenzo.

Crazy that we’re not even at 10 storms and we’ve got two Cat 5s. It’s really been all or nothing this season lol.

2007