NATL: IMELDA - Models

[BobHarlem]

Does that mean this will come much closer to Florida than what is forecast?

No. It does not. FWIW that side is very dry so Florida likely won't notice much as it passes by.
https://i.imgur.com/mNe2DuY.png

Not ok to make such a bold claim. They are under a ts watch and if they go under a ts warning then they can in fact experience ts conditions not to mention possible flooding for low lying areas. Rule of thumb is to wait til it passes your latitude before letting guard down

Looking at the gulf side it isn't really bold at all. Coastal areas will get the impacts, rest of the state won't really. Usual caveats apply, but that's what it shows.

[SFLcane]

[floridasun]

you think they may put a tropical storm watch up south of west palm beach if it keeps moving more west?

[ronjon]

Let's see if the hurricane dynamic models such as HAFS and HWRF swing closer to the FL east coast on their 12z runs. Looks like WPB might be in for some squalls and TS gusts.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS is a little left, but still eventually heads out to sea. Using this as a guide, the TS watch is a good call for the Florida coast, but inland won't see much of anything. I think the first few days are good, things get hairy closer to the stall (or more like a hard right on the 12z), so it could still change. 12z GFS also dodges Bermuda to the south.



12z Canadian is similar to the 12z gfs, but shifted a little further east away from Florida from the 0z run.

[tolakram]

GFS. As soon as Humberto gets NE it's pulled out to sea.

[LarryWx]

Just like for all runs before, 12Z UK is again staying OTS from US with this run not as close to FL on its closest approach (175 miles offshore) vs last few runs:

Note the initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W: how is that compared to where it really was at 8AM?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2025 0 22.0N 77.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 28.09.2025 12 21.3N 77.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 28.09.2025 24 23.4N 77.1W 1005 34
0000UTC 29.09.2025 36 24.7N 77.1W 1003 30
1200UTC 29.09.2025 48 26.2N 77.1W 1003 43
0000UTC 30.09.2025 60 27.5N 77.5W 1000 39
1200UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.3N 76.6W 997 35
0000UTC 01.10.2025 84 28.6N 74.6W 994 39
1200UTC 01.10.2025 96 34.6N 69.7W 977 69
0000UTC 02.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING

[caneman]

No. It does not. FWIW that side is very dry so Florida likely won't notice much as it passes by.
https://i.imgur.com/mNe2DuY.png

Not ok to make such a bold claim. They are under a ts watch and if they go under a ts warning then they can in fact experience ts conditions not to mention possible flooding for low lying areas. Rule of thumb is to wait til it passes your latitude before letting guard down

Looking at the gulf side it isn't really bold at all. Coastal areas will get the impacts, rest of the state won't really. Usual caveats apply, but that's what it shows.

Im not referring to the gulf side. East coast of Florida is still very much in play for effects depending on how strong. You were also refering to the east coast as you mentioned Florida. You're a long term poster you know better than to make a bold claim like that. Any kind or surge could be bad. I saw it first hand with Helene and Milton.

[LarryWx]

Note the 12Z UK initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W. But it was per NHC ~21.7N, ~76W meaning 12Z UK initialized ~100 miles too far WNW and still recurved pretty easily from US. That bodes well for chances for staying OTS from US.

[Ubuntwo]

Note the 12Z UK initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W: it was per NHC ~21.7N, ~76W meaning it initialized ~100 miles too far WNW and still recurved pretty easily from US. That bodes well for chances for staying OTS from US.

Depends on if the UK is tracking the low pressure center or center of circulation. The lowest pressure measured by dropsonde during this morning's flight was 1006mb at 22.0N, 77.1W (11:32z), which seems to line up very well with that UK init.

[psyclone]

The wind probs on the east coast remain pretty low. The TS watch seems very cautionary in the event the systems tacks a little bit more west. what is going to happen is a nice breeze and drier air advecting into the state as the system pulls by. Highs in the 80's and lower dewpoints...If anything this system should help coax Fall into the state and it should feel much nicer this week.

[SFLcane]

Still chugging Cuba in no hurry to head NW.

[LarryWx]

Note the 12Z UK initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W: it was per NHC ~21.7N, ~76W meaning it initialized ~100 miles too far WNW and still recurved pretty easily from US. That bodes well for chances for staying OTS from US.

Depends on if the UK is tracking the low pressure center or center of circulation. The lowest pressure measured by dropsonde during this morning's flight was 1006mb at 22.0N, 77.1W (11:32z), which seems to line up very well with that UK init.

Per NHC (see below), the center was at 15Z moving NW (320 per discussion) from 22.0N, 76.2W meaning it was ~21.7N, 76.0W 3 hours earlier (12Z). That tells me the UK init was 100 miles too far WNW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

[BobHarlem]

Longer range in the 12z GFS TD9 stalls southwest of Bermuda then starts moving back west. I think Humberto bombing out is messing with a lot of the models and causing the hard rights. Longer term may still yet be very interesting.


As for why impacts to Florida probably won't be too great, this shows it, the dry air coming in from the Gulf. Coast will get some minor surge, but it won't be anything like Matthew unless the track changes greatly. Even matthew didn't do much inland, just surge along the coast.

[LarryWx]

Anyone notice this? Based on the 11AM (15Z) NHC position of 76.2W on a NW heading, it appears to me that the model consensus 12Z initializations are ~35-100 miles too far W with them closer to 76.5-77.3W as of 12Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

[skillz305]

HAFS-A in progress

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow I would have almost put money on this yesterday that this was going to hit land, and now waking up this morning and see how the models have shifted away from a direct landfall, color me quite surprised, happy, but surprised.

[LarryWx]

HAFS-A in progress

Where did it initialize?

12Z GEFS are also initialized W of the implied 12Z position , which was ~76W. The mean 12Z GEFS init. is ~76.5-76.7W meaning that’s ~35-50 miles too far W.

[Ubuntwo]

Anyone notice this? Based on the 11AM (15Z) NHC position of 76.2W on a NW heading, it appears to me that the model consensus 12Z initializations are ~35-100 miles too far W with them closer to 76.5-77.3W as of 12Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

Model trackers look at the low pressure center, NHC is looking at the wind center. Low pressure center location was confirmed to be near 22N 71W by dropsondes at 12z. The gap is a symptom of this being rather disorganized at 12z, but I suspect the low center has relocated since.

[ronjon]

Rut Roh...12z HAFS-A (973 mb) and HMON (976mb) into Savannah area at 72-75 hours. 12z HAFS-A much faster than 06z run.