ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Jr0d]

Looking much better than I was expecting compared to how it looked 12 hours ago. I won't be surprised if recon finds TS winds if it has another hour or so.

Regardless the potential impact is more or less the same. I doubt it has the potential to get stronger than a low end tropical storm besides.

[Jr0d]

Looks like recon found some gusts to 49kts...however flight level winds suggest it's not quite there yet in my amateur opinion.

[Sciencerocks]

[hohnywx]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1941259659207467107

[chaser1]

TD3? Sure, I'd say name it right now . Best guess
for highest surface winds measured at landfall by any official OR private weather station for Chantal at landfall? My guess for top end measured sustained wind - 30 knots.... tops.

[Jr0d]

TD3? Sure, I'd say name it right now . Best guess
for highest surface winds measured at landfall by any official OR private weather station for Chantal at landfall? My guess for top end measured sustained wind - 30 knots.... tops.

I think buoy 41004 has a good chance of besting that number but not by much... 35kts, I would be surprised if we got 40kts+(sustained)

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41004

That said looking more ragged than 2 hours ago but typical of these kind of systems.

[Teban54]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9163/FiFcgx.gif

Not gonna lie... When I first saw the IR loop on Tropical Tidbits (before coming to this thread and reading the earlier comments about shear), just based on that look alone, I was serious asking "is this gonna be a hurricane in 24 hours".

(Of course, the answer is no. But...)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Jr0d]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9163/FiFcgx.gif

Not gonna lie... When I first saw the IR loop on Tropical Tidbits (before coming to this thread and reading the earlier comments about shear), just based on that look alone, I was serious asking "is this gonna be a hurricane in 24 hours".

(Of course, the answer is no. But...)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I think the convection mid afternoon was more or less randomly somewhat symmetric which gave it the appearance of it being much better organized than it was. Now that convection has waned and we see a mess of a system that is struggling with shear and likely will remain a ragged system with a barely marginal environment to strengthen this weekend...but I still think we will see a tropical storm tomorrow.

Just my amateur opinion.

[cycloneye]

We have the third named storm of the season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hot tower going up just to the east of the center. Looks like the shear has relaxed quite a bit since last night. I would not be surprised if that doesn't tug the center a little east.
After watching the loop for a while it looks like that center is rotating under and will be under that hot tower soon.

[Sciencerocks]

[Fancy1002]

At least Chantel looks decent. Let’s see how she progresses.

[cycloneye]

Plane found center on the edge of convection.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely highly sheared but overall Chantal looks like it could strengthen up to 50mph before landfall.

[cycloneye]

Two important sentences from discussion:

The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now.

Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Two important sentences from discussion:

The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now.

Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening.

I think we were seeing that direction change this morning. Definitely not like yesterday.
53kt surface wind on the last set of obs

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1941524248104927614