NATL: IMELDA - Models

[LarryWx]

https://postimages.org/]https://i.postimg.cc/13H6fyjs/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh15-120-1.gif
18z ICON

And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs still running, but it's back to developing 94L, gets pulled up into Humberto, but drives Humberto closer to the Northeast US in the process. No US landfall though. Bahamas gets it, Bermuda is close.

[JtSmarts]

Likely WAY overblown but a different view of what the Icon is putting out at the end of it's 18z run for 94.

[cycloneye]

18z Euro develops once again 94L. Don't have graphic as no plus for me.

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro develops once again 94L. Don't have graphic as no plus for me.

18z euro


Models from earlier in the week were well north of 94l's current position for the current time, which may be notable.

[Jr0d]

This has to be some of the most insane models runs I have seen less than 5 days out, for this and Humberto. I keep refering to the ensembles because with such a complex forecast, especially the potential interaction with 94L and Humberto, the operational models are much more probe to error.

If this does develop, let's not forget it will be the dreaded "I" storm, while obviously not scientific we all know what that means.

I do think the Euro ensembles have shifted slightly west today, which makes me wonder if the low stays south the mountains of the Greater Antilles it could put Florida in play.

At this point i wouldn't be surprised if we get 2 lows out of 94L, one that goes north of the GAs, the other one staying skuth below the Greater Antilles in the Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

That doesn't look good for the SECONUS if it doesnt stall. Have to pray that Humberto remains dominant and forces this east.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-B.

[JtSmarts]

HWRF Strong Cat 1 into NC

[BobHarlem]

big left shift on the 0z earlies, also moves a lot faster.

Notable is it gets close to NC fairly quickly.

[Pelicane]

A truly 1 to 1 setup if all these crazy runs verify. How can you accurately predict and forecast a binary interaction between two similarly intense storms? It's so nuanced and just a little track and intensity difference gives you a vastly different result. The added factor of this being so close to land just makes it an even bigger headache.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1971023223648043053

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro ensembles, majority have a us landfall.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon

[Blown Away]

18z ECENS… 94L keeps sliding just N of W while the majority of guidance is moving NW at the initial point. The current broad circulation is going WNW into DR, where and if it reforms N after still uncertain. IMO a farther W solution is more likely than this fujiwara stuff.

[BobHarlem]

0z canadian shifted left to a Myrtle Beach, SC landfall (was out to sea at 12z)


0z gfs

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: TD forms Mon night NW Bahamas, initially then drifts slowly NW followed by a stall and dissipation as the much stronger Humberto only ~500 miles east takes over:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 25.0N 77.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2025 108 25.9N 78.2W 1008 27
0000UTC 30.09.2025 120 26.1N 78.3W 1007 23
1200UTC 30.09.2025 132 26.1N 78.1W 1007 20
0000UTC 01.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

[Pelicane]

0z canadian shifted left to a Myrtle Beach, SC landfall (was out to sea at 12z)
https://i.imgur.com/Y7qbWfX.png

Notably faster, which probably correlates with intensity. Slower = more time for dry air to take hold.

[Stratton23]

CMC into SC, then stalls, does a loop and drifts WSW over florida and into the eastern gulf, albeit strung out, some funky model runs though

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS: the most threatening run yet to the SE US (even more than 18Z)