NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2025092306, , BEST, 0, 142N, 476W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al762025 to al932025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932025.dat

[cycloneye]

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2025092312, , BEST, 0, 150N, 480W, 20, 1011, DB

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Convention decreasing this morning but there is good rotation.

[cycloneye]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://i.imgur.com/2Wr8KWm.gif

This one may get going sooner than what we think.

[chaser1]

Looks like it's trying right now right around 15.5N and 47.8W under or just north of that new convection going off.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2025092318, , BEST, 0, 164N, 490W, 25, 1010, DB

[Teban54]

We're now hitting the 91L mark of 60/90!

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[AnnularCane]

We're now hitting the 91L mark of 60/90!

https://i.postimg.cc/VLbB2Xh4/goes19-truecolor-93-L-202509231615.gif

Slightly more at 70/90!

[Nimbus]

High pressure closes off the weakness after Gabrielle moves out.
And some models have this approaching 94L for a fujiwara dance.
The late developing waves were out there a week ago but there is too much confusion for the models.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2025092400, , BEST, 0, 172N, 502W, 25, 1010, DB

[Buck]

If this continues developing quicker than 94L, is there any chance that affects its development (for better or worse)?

[cycloneye]

If this continues developing quicker than 94L, is there any chance that affects its development (for better or worse)?

A Fujiwhara between the two is a possibility as some models hint.

[Buck]

If this continues developing quicker than 94L, is there any chance that affects its development (for better or worse)?

A Fujiwhara between the two is a possibility as some models hint.

Right, but are the close enough that outflow from one might inhibit development of the other? Doesn’t seem like it but the model spread is just so broad at the moment.

[Fancy1002]

I hope this one gets the H

[Teban54]

Very concentrated convection in recent frames. Will these hot towers be the final push towards genesis?

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO:

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical
Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.