NATL: IMELDA - Models

[kevin]

Interesting times ahead. 06z ICON develops both 93L and 94L.

[LarryWx]

6Z:
Euro at 144 has a strengthening 998 TS moving NNW N of the Bahamas threatening the SE US.

Icon at 120 is well E of Euro

GFS has nothing from this, alone, although it appears to combine its vorticity with 93L and develop that well offshore

—————-
No UK run has had this as a TC AFAIK

[TomballEd]

Bit early to say anything but the 6Z Euro ensembles see a chance of a CONUS landfall

[TampaWxLurker]

12z Icon has this & 93L get quite strong and start to Fujiwhara around each other for a bit.

[Pelicane]

After being the only model really showing development, the GFS has now become the only model NOT showing development. Favouring the other wave now.

[TomballEd]

Simple (new beta and advection model) medium steering would take this into the Caribbean near bit S of Puerto Rico, Not putting much weight in that, although the eastern Gulf isn't in the clear.

LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.3 19.0
LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.4 64.6 65.8 67.0 68.9 70.3 71.3 72.3 72.9 73.7 74.4 75.4

[chaser1]

After being the only model really showing development, the GFS has now become the only model NOT showing development. Favouring the other wave now.

Hmmm, that WOULD seem to go hand in hand with 94L moving slower and it's vorticity tracking more north of the Islands.

[Weathertracker96]

After being the only model really showing development, the GFS has now become the only model NOT showing development. Favouring the other wave now.

Hmmm, that WOULD seem to go hand in hand with 94L moving slower and it's vorticity tracking more north of the Islands.

You think the gfs could be wrong based on what the system is doing now?

[Teban54]

After being the only model really showing development, the GFS has now become the only model NOT showing development. Favouring the other wave now.

Even now that 12z GFS favors 93L, it still thinks that 94L will play a bigger role at limiting 93L's potential. Thus, GFS doesn't make 93L nearly as strong as other models do.

[chaser1]

What would be eyebrow raising would be an increase in model ensemble members showing quicker and further south development. Clearly, that's not what the operational GFS is suggesting right now. All bets are on the table but a more apperant LLC would be more telling. R/N it still looks like an open 2-3 degrees N.E. to S.W axis where an LLC could consolidate along.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK: TD in NW Bahamas that drifts NE

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 25.0N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2025 144 25.6N 76.9W 1010 30
0000UTC 30.09.2025 156 26.0N 76.2W 1009 24
1200UTC 30.09.2025 168 26.9N 74.2W 1008 27

[Pelicane]

After being the only model really showing development, the GFS has now become the only model NOT showing development. Favouring the other wave now.

Hmmm, that WOULD seem to go hand in hand with 94L moving slower and it's vorticity tracking more north of the Islands.

You think the gfs could be wrong based on what the system is doing now?

Maybe. All the models have been flipflopping on this one though.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: After forming in the Bahamas and then recurving offshore the SE US, the center misses Bermuda to the NW, as it did for 93L two days earlier in this run. Then it turns back NW before ultimately turning back NE missing the NE US and barely missing Newfoundland. Bermuda has effects from both, especially 94L.

[MGC]

12Z GFS has 94L energy getting absorbed into 93L which at that point is a TC. Hope that is the case.......MGC

[PTrackerLA]

Quite the spread for 94L on the 12z Euro ensembles:

[BobHarlem]

6z Google Deep Mind Ensembles:

[AutoPenalti]

12z Google Deep Mind Ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/7MOhB7W.png https://i.imgur.com/110iVsy.png

Yep, that’s where it’s going.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro ensembles

[TomballEd]

12z euro ensembles
https://i.postimg.cc/gj4V1ftf/12093406.gif

Enough perturbations threatening the Gulf Coast of Florida, well, 94L could be very interesting.

[canes92]

Just stay away from Florida.